September 12, 2022

CFL Simulation: Breaking down the possibilities

Kevin Sousa/

TORONTO — After an eventful Week 14 that saw Montreal, Toronto, Winnipeg and Calgary pick up wins, the CFL Simulation got to work and came to some interesting conclusions.

To exactly no one’s surprise, the Blue Bombers are heavy favourites in every scenario listed below.

Based on the data its seen to this point, the simulation is predicting them to run the table for the rest of the season and finish with a 16-2 record. It gives the Bombers a 59.8 per cent chance of winning their third straight Grey Cup.

As the Argonauts have opened up their lead atop the East Division, the simulation is smiling on them this week. It sees either Winnipeg-Toronto or Calgary-Toronto in 75 per cent of its simulated Grey Cup pairings.

The Alouettes get some love from the simulation this week as well, with their home playoff possibilities taking a boost after their win over the BC Lions.

The Lions find themselves on the other side of this digital coin. In light of their recent results against the Roughriders two weeks ago and the Alouettes this past week, the Lions now are pegged to finish 10-8 and have seen their home playoff hopes take a hit. They’re listed with a 5.56 per cent chance of hosting a playoff game and a 0.98 per cent chance of appearing in the Grey Cup game this year in Regina. The simulation gives them just a 0.35 per cent chance of winning it this year.

Of course, things can change quickly in this simulated world. A Lions win against the Stampeders this week would go a long way, both here and in the standings, where the two teams are battling it out for second place in the West Division.

» Buy: Tickets
» View: Full League Standings
» View: Schedule

Check out this week’s updates to the CFL Simulation and see where your team stands.

*C: Clinched a particular outcome
*E: Eliminated from achieving a particular outcome


Team (Projected 2022 Record) Projection
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (16-2) C
Calgary Stampeders (13-5) >99.99%
Toronto Argonauts (11-7) 99.89%
BC Lions (10-8) 99.90%
Montreal Alouettes (8-10) 96.42%
Saskatchewan Roughriders (7-11) 82.85%
Ottawa REDBLACKS (6-12) 21.92%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats (5-13) 4.63%
Edmonton Elks (5-13) 1.91%



Team Projection
Winnipeg Blue Bombers >99.99%
Toronto Argonauts 99.71%
Calgary Stampeders 94.43%
Montreal Alouettes 85.36%
Ottawa REDBLACKS 12.80%
BC Lions 5.56%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 2.12%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 0.02%
Edmonton Elks E



Team Projection
Toronto Argonauts 87.55%
Montreal Alouettes 12.32%
Ottawa REDBLACKS 0.11%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 0.02%



Team Projection
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 99.95%
BC Lions 0.03%
Calgary Stampeders 0.02%
Saskatchewan Roughriders E
Edmonton Elks E



Team Projection
Toronto Argonauts 78.15%
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 76.33%
Calgary Stampeders 22.79%
Montreal Alouettes 17.89%
Ottawa REDBLACKS 2.21%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 1.47%
BC Lions 0.98%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 0.17%
Edmonton Elks 0.01%



Team Projection
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 59.76%
Toronto Argonauts 19.68%
Calgary Stampeders 17.00%
Montreal Alouettes 2.74%
BC Lions 0.35%
Ottawa REDBLACKS 0.33%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 0.12%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 0.02%
Edmonton Elks <0.01%



Team Projection
Winnipeg-Toronto 59.64%
Calgary-Toronto 17.79%
Winnipeg-Montreal 13.63%
Calgary-Montreal 4.12%
Winnipeg-Ottawa 1.73%

The model considers the following:

  • Each team’s current win-loss record.
  • Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
  • Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
  • Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
  • Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 100,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team). For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).

For instance, if Winnipeg won the Grey Cup in 20,190 of the 100,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 20,190 / 100,000 = 20.19%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.

The comment system on this website is now powered by the Forums. We'd love for you to be part of the conversation; click the Start Discussion button below to register an account and join the community!