Chris Tanouye/CFL.ca
TORONTO — On the heels of one of the more unpredictable weekends of the season, the impact of a trio of underdog wins is felt in this week’s edition of the CFL Simulation.
Wins by Edmonton, Hamilton and, to a lesser extent BC, have helped push a couple of the league’s lighter weight teams’ playoff chances upward, even if it’s just a small amount.
What those wins also did was help put the pieces in place for what could be a bottleneck for what will be the final two playoff spots in the league. Winnipeg, Toronto, BC and Calgary are all projected to comfortably make the playoffs, leaving the other five teams in the league fighting for two spots.
The Ticats win, the Riders’ loss that’s steering them to a crossover and on the other side of that, the Elks’ playoff hopes still lingering sets us up for an intriguing final six weeks of regular season play.
Week 15’s games are a good example of just how much things can change in the Simulation on a weekly basis.
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Check out this week’s edition of the CFL Simulation and see what your team’s postseason odds are.
*C: Clinched a particular outcome
*E: Eliminated from achieving a particular outcome
ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS |
|
| Team (Projected 2022 Record) | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers (15-3) | C |
| BC Lions (12-6) | 99.99% |
| Calgary Stampeders (11-7) | 99.99% |
| Toronto Argonauts (11-7) | 99.98% |
| Montreal Alouettes (8-10) | 86.98% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats (7-11) | 53.36% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders (6-12) | 37.50% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS (6-12) | 17.71% |
| Edmonton Elks (5-13) | 4.49% |
ODDS TO HOST PLAYOFF GAME |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 99.92% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 99.87% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 72.59% |
| BC Lions | 60.55% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 39.53% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 20.73% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 6.81% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | <0.01% |
| Edmonton Elks | E |
ODDS TO WIN EAST |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | 93.57% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 6.17% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 0.24% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 0.02% |
ODDS TO WIN WEST |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 94.95% |
| BC Lions | 5.05% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 0.01% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | E |
| Edmonton Elks | E |
ODDS TO APPEAR IN 109TH GREY CUP |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | 83.37% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 68.98% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 19.55% |
| BC Lions | 11.48% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 10.54% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 4.93% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 0.99% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 0.14% |
| Edmonton Elks | 0.02% |
ODDS TO WIN 109TH GREY CUP |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | 47.41% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 32.24% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 10.11% |
| BC Lions | 4.33% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 3.65% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 1.95% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 0.29% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 0.02% |
| Edmonton Elks | <0.01% |
MOST LIKELY 109TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg-Toronto | 57.56% |
| Calgary-Toronto | 16.26% |
| BC-Toronto | 9.55% |
| Winnipeg-Montreal | 7.24% |
| Winnipeg-Hamilton | 3.39% |
The model considers the following:
- Each team’s current win-loss record.
- Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
- Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
- Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
- Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 100,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team). For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).
For instance, if Winnipeg won the Grey Cup in 20,190 of the 100,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 20,190 / 100,000 = 20.19%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
