Christian Bender/CFL.ca
The 2022 season has three weeks remaining with almost everything still on the table. Aside from Winnipeg clinching the West Division, everything is up for grabs when it comes to the playoff picture.
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There are two battles, though, I’ll be watching closest down the stretch.
The final seed
Week 18 saw the Hamilton Tiger-Cats breathe new life into their season thanks to a 18-14 win at home to Saskatchewan. That, along with a 24-18 REDBLACKS win over Montreal, has made the race for third in the East Division, and thus the league’s final playoff spot, an absolute fight to the finish.
That spot is currently held down via crossover by the reeling Riders. However, with losses in five straight and six of seven, Saskatchewan’s hold on that position is tenuous at best. That’s why, despite enduring a difficult night throwing the football, Hamilton absolutely needed to find a way to win Friday night.
The result moved the Tiger-Cats into an advantageous position, as they’re now just one win shy of overtaking the Roughriders. Remember, Hamilton only needs to be tied with Saskatchewan at the end of the season to get the nod in their own division, which means they completely control their own fate. If the 5-10 Ticats win out, they’ll clinch a playoff spot regardless of what the Riders, sitting at 6-10, do the rest of the way.
Of course, winning out will be no easy task. Hamilton is on the road Friday night to take on the surging Stampeders before what could be a monumental home-and-home set with Ottawa to close out the season. Despite a tumultuous campaign, and a coaching change just over a week ago, the REDBLACKS are by no means out of this conversation themselves.
Ottawa gave their playoff hopes a major shot in the arm with an impressive 24-18 road win over the Alouettes on Thanksgiving Monday. At 4-11, the REDBLACKS are a game back of Hamilton in this conversation with three games to go. Ottawa has a return match against Montreal on Friday before that aforementioned two-game showdown with the Tiger-Cats.
After a 1-8 start, the REDBLACKS are 3-3 since installing Nick Arbuckle as their starting quarterback. While he hasn’t been perfect, Arbuckle has moved the ball better than Caleb Evans and has generally kept mistakes to a minimum.
With Bob Dyce, who won in his first game at interim head coach, helming the ship the rest of the season, I’m curious if Ottawa can ride a coaching change bump to a competitive finish. Much like Hamilton, all the REDBLACKS need is a tie with a potential crossover team to end up getting the playoff nod.
Which leaves the Riders in a vulnerable spot entering Week 19. On a bye, Saskatchewan will sit idle while Hamilton and Ottawa attempt to gain ground before closing out with a difficult home-and-home against Calgary. The Riders still have plenty to play for and perhaps two games with their archrival to wrap up the season is exactly what they need.
Home field in the West
We know Winnipeg will be hosting the Western Final. We also know the Stampeders and Lions will be going head-to-head one week prior in the Western Semi-Final. What we don’t know is where that game is going to be played, as BC and Calgary enter their final three games of the season with identical 10-5 records.
Coming off their final bye, the Stamps have to be feeling good about the way their game is trending. Quarterback Jake Maier continues to solidify his number one spot; his numbers would have him in the Most Outstanding Player conversation if they were applied to a full season. Calgary is 4-2 since Maier took the reins (their two losses have come by a combined four points), and he’s been a huge reason why.
Yes, the Stampeders have a lot going for them on offence when you consider Maier’s emergence, Ka’Deem Carey’s outstanding season at running back, and their impressive group of receivers. But let’s not forget to hat tip what very well could be Calgary’s MVP (Most Valuable Position) this season: the defensive line.
With 12 sacks, Shawn Lemon has been spectacular and has trampled all over any notions his time as a difference maker has come to an end. Lemon, Folarin Orimolade, and Isaac Adeyemi-Berglund are all having great years off the edge, while the duo of Mike Rose and Derek Wiggan have cemented themselves as the CFL’s most devastating interior force.
And yet, despite their recent hot streak, Calgary still isn’t fully in control of their fate for hosting a playoff game. Because the Lions won two of three regular season head-to-head matchups, they hold the tiebreaker advantage and have a slight leg up, even after their 23-20 loss in Toronto on Saturday night.
BC has had their ups and downs while trying to find their way after quarterback Nathan Rourke went down in Week 11. The good news for the Lions, who are 2-4 since Rourke’s injury, is they’ve determined who their quarterback is for the rest of the season.
While he’s still settling into his new surroundings, Vernon Adams Jr. has had some strong moments in four starts with the Lions. Adams hasn’t thrown an interception since arriving in BC and he’s looked most comfortable in his last two games. That comfort level still has time to grow with the three games remaining.
The Lions finish the season with a pair of games against Winnipeg sandwiching a trip to Edmonton. The Stampeders, on the other hand, have Hamilton at home before two straight against the Riders, one at home and one on the road.
