Chris Tanouye/CFL.ca
TORONTO — The Hamilton Tiger-Cats aren’t out of the non-playoff woods yet, but this week’s CFL Simulation likes their chances.
Spurred by their 35-32 win over the Calgary Stampeders, the Ticats are a win closer to fending off the Saskatchewan Roughriders and the Ottawa REDBLACKS for the third and final playoff spot in the East Division.
That win — their first on the road and marking their first winning streak of the season — carries weight with the simulation, given that the Ticats went on the road and knocked off a high quality Stamps team.
An example of just how high the simulation is this week on the Ticats: Even though it projects that they’ll go on the road for the Eastern Semi-Final to face the Montreal Alouettes, the model still gives the Ticats a stronger chance of advancing to the Grey Cup than the Als.
Of course, these odds can and do change on a weekly basis. Depending on how things play out for Hamilton, Ottawa and Saskatchewan this week, next week’s simulation could be singing a different tune.
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Check out this week’s edition of the CFL Simulation to see your team’s updated post-season odds.
*C: Clinched a particular outcome
*E: Eliminated from achieving a particular outcome
ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS |
|
| Team (Projected 2022 Record) | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers (15-3) | C |
| BC Lions (12-6) | C |
| Calgary Stampeders (12-6) | C |
| Toronto Argonauts (11-7) | C |
| Montreal Alouettes (9-9) | C |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats (7-11) | 96.69% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders (6-12) | 3,04% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS (5-13) | 0.27% |
| Edmonton Elks (4-14) | E |
ODDS TO HOST PLAYOFF GAME |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | C |
| Toronto Argonauts | C |
| Montreal Alouettes | C |
| BC Lions | 63.57% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 36.43% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | E |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | E |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | E |
| Edmonton Elks | E |
ODDS TO WIN EAST |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | 88.80% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 11.20% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | E |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | E |
ODDS TO WIN WEST |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | C |
| BC Lions | E |
| Calgary Stampeders | E |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | E |
| Edmonton Elks | E |
ODDS TO APPEAR IN 109TH GREY CUP |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 72.77% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 72.13% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 17.52% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 14.91% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 12.86% |
| BC Lions | 9.71% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 0.05% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 0.05% |
| Edmonton Elks | E |
ODDS TO WIN 109TH GREY CUP |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 55.10% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 18.70% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 13.43% |
| BC Lions | 6.49% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 4.06% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 2.22% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | <0.01% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | <0.01% |
| Edmonton Elks | E |
MOST LIKELY 109TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg-Toronto | 52.59% |
| Calgary-Toronto | 12.62% |
| Winnipeg-Hamilton | 10.81% |
| Winnipeg-Montreal | 9.30% |
| BC-Toronto | 6.93% |
The model considers the following:
- Each team’s current win-loss record.
- Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
- Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
- Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
- Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 100,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team). For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).
For instance, if Winnipeg won the Grey Cup in 20,190 of the 100,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 20,190 / 100,000 = 20.19%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
