Kevin Sousa/CFL.ca
TORONTO — With the playoff picture having fully come together in Week 20, the CFL Simulation is back with a new look.
If you scroll to the very bottom of this week’s edition, you’ll see the probability of all nine possible Grey Cup pairings, from the statistically most likely (Winnipeg facing Toronto) to the least (BC playing Hamilton).
This week, the simulation has turned its digital gaze toward the Calgary Stampeders and is confident that they can go on the road next week and take down the BC Lions in the Western Semi-Final.
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Check out this week’s edition of the CFL Simulation to see the playoff-bound team’s updated post-season odds.
*C: Clinched a particular outcome
*E: Eliminated from achieving a particular outcome
ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS |
|
| Team (Projected 2022 Record) | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers (15-3) | C |
| BC Lions (12-6) | C |
| Calgary Stampeders (12-6) | C |
| Toronto Argonauts (12-6) | C |
| Montreal Alouettes (8-10) | C |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats (7-11) | C |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders (6-12) | E |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS (5-13) | E |
| Edmonton Elks (4-14) | E |
ODDS TO HOST PLAYOFF GAME |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | C |
| Toronto Argonauts | C |
| Montreal Alouettes | C |
| BC Lions | C |
| Calgary Stampeders | E |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | E |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | E |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | E |
| Edmonton Elks | E |
ODDS TO WIN EAST |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | C |
| Montreal Alouettes | E |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | E |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | E |
ODDS TO WIN WEST |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | C |
| BC Lions | E |
| Calgary Stampeders | E |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | E |
| Edmonton Elks | E |
ODDS TO APPEAR IN 109TH GREY CUP |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | 76.52% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 68.45% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 18.36% |
| BC Lions | 13.19% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 12.11% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 11.37% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | E |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | E |
| Edmonton Elks | E |
ODDS TO WIN 109TH GREY CUP |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 49.31% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 22.11% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 14.12% |
| BC Lions | 9.07% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 2.84% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 2.55% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | E |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | E |
| Edmonton Elks | E |
MOST LIKELY 109TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg-Toronto | 52.28% |
| Calgary-Toronto | 14.08% |
| BC-Toronto | 10.15% |
| Winnipeg-Montreal | 8.30% |
| Winnipeg-Hamilton | 7.86% |
| Calgary-Montreal | 2.21% |
| Calgary-Hamilton | 2.07% |
| BC-Montreal | 1.60% |
| BC-Hamilton | 1.45% |
The model considers the following:
- Each team’s current win-loss record.
- Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
- Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
- Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
- Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 100,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team). For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).
For instance, if Winnipeg won the Grey Cup in 20,190 of the 100,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 20,190 / 100,000 = 20.19%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
