November 8, 2022

CFL Simulation: Loving that home cooking

Kevin Sousa/CFL.ca

TORONTO — As the Eastern and Western Finals near, the CFL Simulation is all about home cooking.

The Simulation likes both the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and the Toronto Argonauts to defend home turf on Sunday and advance to the 109th Grey Cup in Regina. The Bombers have a 73.33 per cent chance of appearing in the Grey Cup game and the Argos have a 65.48 per cent change of advancing this week.

For the second week in a row, the Simulation sees the BC Lions as underdogs. They have the lowest odds of appearing in the Grey Cup game, at 26.67 per cent. However, if they were to make that appearance, the Simulation gives them a 19.65 per cent chance of winning the Grey Cup.

Last week, the Calgary Stampeders were the team that the Simulation smiled upon. The Lions defied the computer-generated odds, defended BC Place and are now a win away from having a shot at ending their 11-year Grey Cup drought. Can they do it again this week?

RELATED:
» 109th Grey Cup Division clashes set
» Buy: Tickets
» View: Full League Standings
» View: Schedule


See where the Lions, the Bombers, Argos and Alouettes all stand this week as we roll into the Eastern and Western Finals.

ODDS TO APPEAR IN 109TH GREY CUP

Team Projection
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 73.33%
Toronto Argonauts 65.48%
Montreal Alouettes 34.52%
BC Lions 26.67%

 

ODDS TO WIN 109TH GREY CUP

Team Projection
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 56.30%
BC Lions 19.65%
Toronto Argonauts 14.91%
Montreal Alouettes 9.14%

 

MOST LIKELY 109TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS

Team Projection
Winnipeg-Toronto 47.98%
Winnipeg-Montreal 25.35%
BC-Toronto 17.50%
BC-Montreal 9.17%

The model considers the following:

  • Each team’s current win-loss record.
  • Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
  • Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
  • Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
  • Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 100,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team). For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).

For instance, if Winnipeg won the Grey Cup in 20,190 of the 100,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 20,190 / 100,000 = 20.19%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.

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