Christian Bender/CFL.ca
TORONTO — The 109th Grey Cup is upon us and we finally know who will have a shot at making history on Sunday, Nov. 20.
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers will look to achieve the rare three-peat championship run. To do it, they’ll have to get past the East Division champion Toronto Argonauts.
Last week, the CFL Simulation suggested that the home teams in each Division Final — the Argos and the Bombers — would make their way to the Grey Cup and it was right. The Toronto-Winnipeg pairing in this week’s game was the most probable, at 47.98 per cent.
This week, the Simulation’s preference likely won’t surprise you.
Atop its cold, robotic torso, the Simulation is wearing Blue and Gold.
The Blue Bombers have been given a 78 per cent chance of winning the 109th Grey Cup and completing the three-peat, giving the CFL its first three-in-a-row champion in 42 years.
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ODDS TO WIN 109TH GREY CUP |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 78.00% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 22.00% |
The model considers the following:
- Each team’s current win-loss record.
- Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
- Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
- Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
- Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 100,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team). For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).
For instance, if Winnipeg won the Grey Cup in 20,190 of the 100,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 20,190 / 100,000 = 20.19%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
