June 27, 2023

Brandon’s Blitz Picks: Answering Week 4

Daniel Crump/CFL.ca

Above water at 6-4 in Week 3, Blitz Picks is 17-13 overall going into Week 4. Our accuracy has plenty room for improvement, especially with a tight three-game docket for Canada Day Weekend.

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1. Which team will earn their first win of the season on Friday?

Winless Ottawa comes off an open week and winless Edmonton showed plenty of fight in a loss to the defending Grey Cup champs on Sunday, so something has to give (unless there’s a tie, right?). Both REDBLACKS pivot Tyrie Adams ($7,000) and Elks signal caller Jarret Doege ($6,900) will make their first CFL starts, putting matters on an even scale of sorts. However, Doege does have an impressive fleet of receivers who are waiting to be more involved, so let’s go with Edmonton in a fun and potential high scoring affair.

2. Will Ottawa’s Tyrie Adams pass for more or less than 149.5 yards against Edmonton this week?

The Elks have allowed 255 yards per game in the air, so it stands to reason that Adams — who threw for 129 yards on 17 attempts in Week 2 — should find the skies friendly enough to pass for more than the modest expectation we’ve presented here.

3. How many quarterbacks will see the field for Edmonton this week against Ottawa?

Doege put up 14.1 fantasy points in a little more than a quarter of work against Toronto, offering hopes that he can bring stability to the position. Still, a slow start by Doege is going to make the 2023 debut of Tre Ford ($5,000) a strong possibility, so let’s play it safe and say we’ll see two pivots for the Elks.

4. Will a game be won in overtime this week?

Nope. “Extra football is a bad thing,” said no one ever, yet after seeing the overtime thriller between the Roughriders and Stampeders in Week 3, we’ll have to wait at least until Week 5 to see the second OT contest of the 2023 season.

5. Will Winnipeg net more or less than 299.5 yards of offence this week against Montreal?

The Als’ defence clamped down the offences of Ottawa and Hamilton to just 290.5 yards per game while allowing just 5.1 yards per play. The Bombers efficient attack blew a gasket last week as the Lions limited them to no majors and 235 total yards. That’s not happening again this week, so count on a significant rebound from Zach Collaros ($15,000) and Friends that will see the Blue Bombers account for more than just approaching 300 total yards.

6. Will Montreal’s Austin Mack have more than 74.5 receiving yards this week against Winnipeg?

 

Mack ($6,800) has averaged 100.5 receiving yards in his first two games and averages 16.1 depth yards per target. Keeping him in check is a tall task for a Winnipeg defence that has allowed a league-high six passing majors along with five completions of better than 30 yards. Although he might not record a 100-yard game on Saturday, count on Mack having more than 74.5 receiving yards.

7. Will we see more or less than 2.5 rouges scored in the Canada Day game between Winnipeg and Montreal?

Less. Neither the Blue Bombers nor Alouettes have recorded a rouge in the first three weeks. Don’t be surprised if there is one on Saturday, but don’t expect a flurry.

8. Will Toronto score more or less than 25.5 points this week against BC?

Less. The Lions near-total lockdown of the Bombers offence remains eye-opening. BC has allowed just one offensive major in their first 12 quarters of play, and while the Argos’ will come in with the league’s highest scoring offence, it’s going to be tough to envision them moving the ball at will against BC.

9. Which BC receiver (Alexander Hollins, Justin McInnis, Lucky Whitehead) will have more receiving yards this week against Toronto?

Whitehead ($12,100) is a very tempting choice, and you couldn’t go wrong with McInnis ($10,000). However, let’s go with Hollins ($12,800), who leads the league with 19 receptions entering Week 4 while also ranking sixth overall with 23 targets. The former Minnesota Viking has established himself as a featured receiver with Dominique Rhymes ($15,000) sidelined after putting up 22.3 FP in the Week 3 win over Winnipeg. Slowing him down will be the top priority of the Argos secondary.

10. How many teams will remain undefeated at the end of Week 4?

Two. We know the winner of BC-Toronto remains undefeated, which means…the Alouettes pull off a surprise at home on Saturday evening, a win which could make the Week 6 clash between Montreal and Toronto quite the interesting matchup.

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