CFL Simulation: Warming to the Stampeders

TORONTO — If you’re thinking ahead to the playoffs getting underway on Saturday, Nov. 4, you’re also probably thinking about the Calgary Stampeders.

A couple of weeks ago the Stamps didn’t seem to have the makings of a playoff team. Wins found ways to elude them this year, all the way to the point of their season being on the line against Saskatchewan in Week 19. After a comeback win over the Riders and a thorough dismantling of the BC Lions this past week at BC Place, the Stamps sat back and watched on Saturday as the Riders lost to the Toronto Argonauts. That punched the Stamps’ ticket to the post-season. Now people are having their eyes opened to the Stamps and the possibility of them having some playoff success.

Actually, it’s not just people that are impressed with the play of the Stamps. The CFL Simulation was wowed by the Stamps’ recent results and has boosted the team’s odds for playoff success, now that it’s in the post-season dance.

The Simulation is predicting that Calgary will upset BC in the Western Semi-Final. We touched on this last week and to a greater extent through this season that the Simulation makes its predictions based on margins of victory, opponents, and location of the game. It cannot factor in the notion that BC already had clinched a playoff spot; something that can impact a team’s frame of mind for a game.

Still, the Simulation sees a team that’s gotten hot very late in the season and qualified for the playoffs by coming out on top in two must-win games. The finished product may still be hot coming out of the oven, but the Simulation sees a recipe for November success in the Stamps.

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Check out the latest CFL Simulation to see where your team stands and what its playoff chances might be.

*C: Clinched a particular outcome
*E: Eliminated from achieving a particular outcome

The model considers the following:

• Each team’s current win-loss record.
• Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
• Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
• Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
• Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 100,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team). For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).

For instance, if Toronto won the Grey Cup in 20,190 of the 100,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 20,190 / 100,000 = 20.19%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.