Weekly Predictor: Ottawa to keep rolling?

Jamie Nye

CFL.ca

@jamienye

The CFL news cycle continues to spin out of control!

Last week had return of Nathan Rourke, Jeremiah Masoli and Trevor Harris, Elks new ownership, and Cody Fajardo watch.

This week, Fajardo watch continues while adding the return of Chad Kelly and Chris Jones lands in Hamilton to help Scott Milanovich try to get out of their spiral.

Oh, and the top two teams in the West standings (BC and Saskatchewan) are 0-7-1 in the last month, leading to Winnipeg, Calgary and Edmonton all now being alive in the race for first place in the division.

Has the power shifted East? There’s three teams over .500 with Montreal and Ottawa easily being 1/2 and the Argonauts have gotten their QB1 back.

September hasn’t even come yet but it’s already starting to feel like desperate football to get important wins and losses as the teams jockey for playoff position.

All this means it’s a great time to be a predictor in the CFL! Right?

Saskatchewan at Toronto
Thursday, August 22
7:30 p.m. ET

This week, we have Corey Mace returning to Toronto to face a likely Chad Kelly-led Argonauts side to start off Week 12.

The first thing you have to think about in this game is any rust Chad Kelly might have. It’s been nine months since Kelly has had players like Jameer Thurman, Rolan Milligan Jr., Micah Johnson and Malik Carney coming full blast off the line of scrimmage.

However, the familiarity he’ll have for what Corey Mace likes to do after being around his defensive philosophy for two seasons should help a bit. But it’s entirely different personnel than what Mace had in Toronto.

Without Kelly, the Argonauts are seventh in offensive scoring, last in yards, last in passing yards and last in yards per play across the CFL.

However, Ka’Deem Carey and the run game and Janarion Grant in the return game have given the Argonauts the scoring punch necessary with 10 touchdowns split between them in the first nine games.

If the Argonauts can lean on Carey, it’ll help Kelly with the adjustment to facing a live defence.

Then you have the Roughriders, who are trying to end this four game slide of winless football. Trevor Harris was great in his return from the injured list. And the team might be able to get Kian Schaffer-Baker back in the receiving corps this week.

Big plays given up by defence and special teams has become an issue in Saskatchewan. They’ve allowed 21 this season, which is worst in the CFL. The Riders do still take the ball away more than any team and could use a few rusty mistakes by Kelly to come out on top this Thursday.

PICK: SASKATCHEWAN

Hamilton at Winnipeg
Friday, August 23
8:30 p.m. ET

What did I tell you about the Bombers after their first bye week? They’ll figure it out.

They did. Or they took advantage of Nathan Rourke’s lack of competitive football in the last 18 months.

But it can be both.

The defence in Winnipeg is tops in the CFL in points and yards allowed. Their offence is worst in the league in points.

Yet, here they are at 4-6 and are chomping at the heels of the Riders and Lions at the top of the division.

Sure, Zach Collaros TD/INT ratio is still a concern and Brady Oliveira hasn’t scored a touchdown yet this season but with Kenny Lawler returning to the lineup this past week I’m expecting the offence to start catching up to the Bombers defence down the stretch.

Hamilton, meanwhile, is a head scratcher. For a minute we thought they might have turned a corner but with Bo Levi Mitchell benched and then Taylor Powell’s scary injury, the drama doesn’t stop in the hammer.

Now they’ve hired Chris Jones to replace Mark Washington as their senior defensive assistant and that means the team has changed quarterbacks and both defensive and special teams coordinators in the last two months. It’s hard for players to focus on football when there has been this much turnover after an off-season where they changed their head coach.

If there is one area the Tiger-Cats could exploit is Winnipeg’s run defence. It’s the biggest hole in the Bombers game right now. The problem with that though is running the ball has not been Hamilton’s strong suit this season.

PICK: WINNIPEG

BC at Ottawa
Saturday, August 24
7:00 p.m. ET

Nathan Rourke left BC Place apologizing to fans after a disappointing first outing for the Lions quarterback. It was clear there will be an adjustment period for his return to the CFL and anybody who was expecting him to be 2022 version of Nathan Rourke from the hop was being unrealistic.

How long Rourke will get to break off the rust will be interesting because as Vernon Adams Jr. comes closer to getting healthy, and the playoff races heating up, you can’t be too patient with Rourke when you have an MOP candidate ready to take back control of the offence.

Now the Lions have a short week and an Eastern trip to Ottawa to face the red hot REDBLACKS, who haven’t lost a game since Week 5! BC hasn’t won a game since Week 6!

The Lions are in the middle of the pack now in a lot of categories as the offence (as expected) has settled down since Vernon Adams Jr. has come out of the lineup.

While Nathan Rourke shouldn’t struggle as badly as he did last week, I’m not sure he’ll still be anywhere near where he wants to be this week.

Keep in mind, the REDBLACKS have one of the best defences in the Canadian Football League with Lorenzo Mauldin IV and Bryce Carter coming off the edge!

Jeremiah Masoli looked comfortable last week running the offence in his first game back, though he was able to be around for all of training camp unlike Rourke and Kelly for BC and Toronto.

Ryquell Armstead is having a great first year being the feature back in Ottawa. The added element of Armstead has been a huge addition for the REDBLACKS early season success on offence and allowed a new starting quarterback in Dru Brown to settle in.

PICK: OTTAWA

Edmonton at Montreal
Sunday, August 25
7:00 p.m. ET

The two hottest teams in the CFL face off to wrap up the week.

Edmonton has come alive with three-straight wins and the reason is their run game. They’ve found success on the ground with Javon Leake and now Justin Rankin.

Keep pounding the ball!

They face the Alouettes defence, who by the way, has been gashed on the ground a few times this year by opposing running backs.

Hmmmm. Are we about to see a major upset in the Canadian Football League this week?

Whether it’s Tre Ford or McLeod Bethel-Thompson at quarterback, there is no reason to get away from what’s worked for the Elks. RUN. THE. BALL!

The issue is they’re on back-to-back Eastern road trips and they face the Montreal Alouettes.

Will Cody Fajardo return this week? Does it matter?

Davis Alexander has turned into another under-30 quarterback CFL fans can get excited about. There is no apparent drop off with Alexander or Fajardo running the Alouettes offence and Noel Thorpe’s defence is always going to be one of the top in the league.

While I think the Elks can keep this incredibly interesting with their new found run game, they are playing the best team in the league… on the road.

PICK: MONTREAL

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