Elks Charge: 5 reasons Edmonton is in the playoff picture

Marshall Ferguson

CFL.ca

@TSN_Marsh

As the season began there appeared to be little hope for the Edmonton Elks to accomplish much of anything.

Losing a string of close games early on, quarterback play not where they hoped it would be after signing veteran McLeod Bethel-Thompson and a defence struggling to establish their identity all resulted in a couple months worth of summer headaches worthy of the morning after a Klondike Day bender.

Then, all of sudden Jarious Jackson moved to the head coach role and Tre Ford rescued a couple games and now the Elks are stunningly back into the West Division playoff picture after pulling out wins in four of their last five.

HOW!? First, let’s not forget that this IS the CFL after all. Teams can flip the script in a hurry on their opponent and season narrative, but Edmonton has been unable to do so over the last couple of years when struggling in similar ways, so why now?

Here are my five best theories on ways the Elks have turned it around, a formula forged in real time and one that might just see them climb into a playoff game two months from now.

WEST VS. WEST SUCCESS

While the Elks have only played five games against their division foes, they do have the best win percentage of any team from the West against West clubs (.600).

While the West is down relative to the East as much this season as we have ever seen since 2001, Edmonton hopping back into the playoff picture – albeit on the outside for now – isn’t shocking when you consider they are heating up against teams they need to beat in order to jump into the November do-or-die tournament.

With five of their last six games against the West, Edmonton could sneak in if they can maintain winning two out of every three games against their divisional opponents.

OFFENSIVE EXPLOSION

One look at the CFL’s offensive statistics a couple months ago and you would notice Edmonton consistently near the bottom of most main metrics used to access performance. Now? The Elks rank first in points per game (29.0), touchdowns scored (38), first downs (267) and even average gain on rushing plays (5.4).

Perhaps the biggest turnaround number, though, is explosive passing plays where Edmonton now ranks third behind only BC and Montreal in pass plays of 30 yards or more.

SCORE ZONE SUPREMACY

With the most score zone opportunities in the CFL (41), Edmonton has cashed in to the tune of 31 touchdowns which is TEN better than the next highest total (Calgary with 21). Their 83 score zone plays run is second behind only BC but the Elks defence have become score zone specialists as well by keeping teams outside their 20-yard line allowing just 59 score zone snaps for opposing offences, which is second-highest in the league.

BOMBS AWAY!

With a 53.7 yards per punt average, the Edmonton kicking unit has been absolutely smashing the football this season and coverage units are helping seal the deal by maintaining the CFL’s second-best net punt average at 39.4 yards per kick.

Add in the league second-longest kickoff average (69.7 yards per attempt) and you quickly get the sense that special teams are helping, not hurting, the Elks. That’s not something we’ve been able to say much over the last handful of seasons.

LIMITING TURNOVERS

There might be no number more singularity related to wins and losses in the modern CFL than turnovers. Takeaway and giveaway math is simple; if they get more possessions, they have more chance to score points than your team, which usually results in a high average point total.

The Elks did not do a good job of protecting the football over the first two month of 2024, but now they are second in turnovers made (16) and have split two very well respected clubs in Montreal and Saskatchewan for second place in turnover ratio (+10). Jake Maier throwing four interceptions certainly helps, but with only two teams in the double digit positives, Edmonton is nearing elite status at one of the game’s most crucial determining stats of success.

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