David Chidley/CFL.ca
Week 16 of CFL fantasy play is driven by a schedule filled with playoff implications in each of the four games on Friday and Saturday.
Knowing who to add to your lineup and who to avoid is what we’re here for, so let’s get going with the Week 16 edition of Start/Sit.
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Hamilton (4-9-0) at Toronto (7-6-0), Friday, 7:00 PM (Eastern)
Line: Toronto -6.5
O/U: 53.5 (-105)
Start: Makai Polk, WR, Toronto, $5,000 Salary
Polk is coming off back-to-back games with 17.5 or more FP and gets another chance to produce against a Tiger-Cats defence that has allowed 25 passing touchdowns so far this season, worst mark in the league.
The 23-year-old is starting to emerge as one of the biggest playmakers on the Argonauts, commanding 18 targets over the last two games since Chad Kelly’s return to the lineup.
Sit: Ka’Deem Carey, RB, Toronto, $11,300 Salary
On the other end of the spectrum, Carey’s fantasy production has taken a considerable hit since Kelly’s return. After being the focal point of the offence for much of the season, Carey has failed to score more than 8.6 FP in three of the last four games as the Argonauts have become more pass happy.
Carey has been hit-and-miss in two previous games against the Ticats, scoring 12.6 FP in Week 7 before tailing off in Week 13 when he finished with 7.8 FP. The Argos no longer need Carey to grind out rushing yards and control the clock, which means fantasy players can no longer rely on him as they did when he started the season with 10 straight games of double-digit fantasy production.
Saskatchewan (5-7-1) at Calgary (4-8-1), Friday, 9:30 PM
Line: Saskatchewan -3
O/U: 50.5 (-106)
Start: Reggie Begelton, WR, Calgary, $13,000 Salary
Despite not scoring a major in seven straight games, Begelton remains a source of solid production for both the Stampeders and fantasy players, having scored at least 13.2 FP in six consecutive t games. Knowing Begelton will be heavily targeted is like knowing each day ends in “y,” as he has at least 10 targets in three consecutive games and four of his last five.
Keeping Calgary’s slimming postseason hopes alive will be centered around getting Begelton the ball against a Roughriders pass defence that’s allowing 296.8 yards per game and 22 completions of at least 30 yards. Count on Begelton and pivot Jake Maier ($11,400) to maintain their steady relationship well past early Saturday morning for those watching on the East Coast.
Sit: Dedrick Mills, RB, Calgary, $10.500 Salary
It is difficult to suggest sitting a running back coming off a 122-yard gem, yet there’s a huge reason why avoiding Mills is a must this week.
Outside of a regrettable afternoon against the Elks in Week 9, Saskatchewan’s run defence has been solid all season. The Roughriders have allowed a league-low 73.3 rushing yards per game and top the league with a mere 4.4 yards per carry. Mills has scored double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this season. A second time is quite possible on Friday, so don’t run the risk of it hurting your fantasy team.
Montreal (10-2-1) at Ottawa (8-4-1), Saturday, 3:00 PM
Line: Montreal -2.5
O/U: 49.5 (-114)
Start: Khalan Laborn, RB, Ottawa, $4,500 Salary
Thrust into the starting role, Laborn has given the REDBLACKS backfield much-needed stability. He’s also shown himself to be an effective fantasy producer, scoring 18.7 FP in his starting debut in Week 14 before following up with a solid 15.3 FP effort in the Week 15 loss to the Tiger-Cats.
Laborn has a combined 32 touches in his two starts, so expect the consistent workload to continue. He’s a strong value play, and faces off against an Alouettes defence ranked eighth in the league with 114.2 rushing yards allowed per game. Don’t be surprised if Laborn finds the end zone for the first time.
Sit: Dru Brown, QB, Ottawa, $11,600 Salary
Brown had arguably his worst start as the REDBLACKS pivot, scoring just 4.3 FP before being replaced by Jeremiah Masoli ($5,000) in the second half of Saturday’s loss to the Tiger-Cats. It snapped a mini-run from Brown, who had scored 25.1 FP in Week 12 and 17.4 FP in Week 14.
The Alouettes’ pass defence is the complete opposite of their run defence. Montreal is second with just 252.3 yards allowed per game while topping the league with just 13 passing majors allowed. Brown had just 13.3 FP in his previous matchup against Montreal in Week 3, yet another reason not to roll the dice on him for this potential East Division Final preview.
Winnipeg (7-6-0) at Edmonton (5-8-0), Saturday, 7:00 PM
Line: Winnipeg -3
O/U: 49.5 (-110)
Start: Zach Collaros, QB, Winnipeg, $12,200 Salary
Sooner or later, we will get a glimpse of the Collaros who entered the season having thrown 90 touchdown passes over the previous three campaigns while earning a pair of MOP awards. Collaros has thrown a touchdown pass in six straight starts, but notice the words “a touchdown pass.” He has just one game of multiple passing majors in 2024, a very stark contrast to the 12 times he achieved the feat in 2023.
He’s overdue, and facing the Elks might be the tonic Collaros and the Blue Bombers passing game needs to continue their remarkable run after such a slow start. Edmonton allows a league-high 309.5 passing yards per game and has yielded 22 passing majors. Those numbers suggest Collaros is worth the gamble, one that we feel will pay off.
Sit: Tre Ford, QB, Edmonton, $10,000 Salary
The Elks return the second-year pro to the starting lineup after a Week 10 injury led Edmonton to go back to McLeod Bethel-Thompson ($9,000), who has continued guiding the Elks to the outer range of a playoff run.
Ford averaged over 19 FP in his two starts but must contend with a Winnipeg defence that allows just 325.4 offensive yards and 20.6 offensive points per game. Edmonton’s run game has fueled their 5-1 run over the past six games, but the Bombers will be determined to shut it down in order to force Ford to become more of a passer than the dual threat he has shown to be.
