Jason Halstead/CFL.ca
TORONTO — Cold teams? Trending down? What do you mean?
Written off at different points in the season, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and the Saskatchewan Roughriders are favourites of the CFL Simulation this week.
The red-hot Bombers are on a seven-game winning streak and have emerged as the likely favourites to win the 111th Grey Cup, with a 69.86 per cent chance. The Riders, meanwhile, have put their seven-game winless streak behind them with a pair of wins. Their Week 17 toppling of the Ottawa REDBLACKS, coupled with the BC Lions’ loss to the Hamilton Tiger-Cats, has made the Riders the favourite to host the Western Semi-Final on Nov. 2, with a 78.05 per cent chance.
The East Division as a whole remains interesting, with an admittedly slim chance to make some playoff history this year. For the first time in the simulation’s decade-long existence, the possibility of an all-East Grey Cup matchup is slowly coming into play, via an East Division team crossing over into the West playoffs for the first time.
The probabilities in these are all low and can be considered cutting room floor material from the weekly simulation, but it’s interesting nonetheless and it demonstrates just how well the East Division teams have played overall this season.
In 100,000 computer simulations, a pair of East Division opponents met in the 111th Grey Cup 58 times (for perspective, this is a 0.00058 per cent chance of happening). Here’s what that would look like, compiling information from this season through Week 17:
- Hamilton vs. Montreal (occurred in 33 simulations)
- Hamilton vs. Toronto (eight times)
- Toronto vs. Montreal (eight times)
- Hamilton vs. Ottawa (three times)
- Ottawa vs. Montreal (three times)
- Ottawa vs. Toronto (three times)
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Check out this week’s edition of the CFL Simulation to see where your team stands as we head into Week 18.
*C: Clinched a particular outcome
*E: Eliminated from achieving a particular outcome
| ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS | |
| Team (projected 2024 record) | Projection |
| Montreal (12-5-1) | C |
| Winnipeg (11-7) | C |
| Saskatchewan (9-8-1) | 98.81% |
| BC (9-9) | 94.35% |
| Toronto (10-8) | 93.89% |
| Ottawa (8-9-1) | 84.83% |
| Hamilton (8-10) | 21.28% |
| Edmonton (7-11) | 5.65% |
| Calgary (5-12-1) | 1.20% |
| ODDS TO HOST A PLAYOFF GAME | |
| Team | Projection |
| Montreal | C |
| Winnipeg | 99.35% |
| Saskatchewan | 78.05% |
| Toronto | 51.64% |
| Ottawa | 43.88% |
| BC | 22.43% |
| Hamilton | 4.48% |
| Edmonton | 0.12% |
| Calgary | 0.05% |
| ODDS TO WIN EAST | |
| Team | Projection |
| Montreal | C |
| Ottawa | E |
| Toronto | E |
| Hamilton | E |
| ODDS TO WIN WEST | |
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg | 91.97% |
| Saskatchewan | 7.77% |
| BC | 0.26% |
| Edmonton | E |
| Calgary | E |
| ODDS TO APPEAR IN 111TH GREY CUP | |
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg | 82.68% |
| Montreal | 70.59% |
| Toronto | 21.15% |
| Saskatchewan | 14.10% |
| Ottawa | 4.83% |
| Hamilton | 3.44% |
| BC | 3.09% |
| Edmonton | 0.11% |
| Calgary | 0.01% |
| ODDS TO WIN 111TH GREY CUP | |
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg | 69.86% |
| Montreal | 12.97% |
| Saskatchewan | 9.77% |
| Toronto | 4.38% |
| BC | 1.74% |
| Ottawa | 0.76% |
| Hamilton | 0.76% |
| Edmonton | 0.06% |
| Calgary | <0.01% |
| MOST LIKELY 111TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS | |
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg-Montreal | 58.36% |
| Winnipeg-Toronto | 17.55% |
| Saskatchewan-Montreal | 9.97% |
| Winnipeg-Ottawa | 4.04% |
| Saskatchewan-Toronto | 2.91% |
