October 8, 2024

Start vs. Sit: Reliable target for Thanksgiving Weekend presented by Purolator

Kevin Sousa/CFL.ca

Entering Thanksgiving Weekend presented by Purolator, five teams have clinched playoff spots, leaving only one post-season ticket available. The intensity for CFL Fantasy championship glory intensifies as time runs short with only three weeks left in the regular season.

Winning lineups means knowing who’s worth a roster spot and who is best left on the fantasy sidelines. That’s what we’re here for as fantasy week begins with our Start vs. Sit column.

THANKSGIVING WEEKEND PRESENTED BY PUROLATOR
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Toronto (8-7-0) at Winnipeg (10-6-0), Friday, 8:30 PM (Eastern)

Line: Winnipeg -3.5

O/U: 49.5 (-110)

Start: Brady Oliveira, RB, Winnipeg, $15,000 Salary

A winning lineup means having a strong anchor, and Oliveira is as strong as it gets. Oliveira scored a major for a third consecutive game which helped him finish with 23.2 fantasy points in the Week 18 win over Hamilton. He’s ripped off four straight 100-yard games and is averaging 21.2 FP in the same span while helping guide the Bombers one step closer to winning another West Division title.

Toronto has the league’s best run defence, allowing just 75.5 yards per game. But Oliveira mauled them for 147 rushing yards on his way to 20.7 FP in Week 8. The Blue Bombers offence is rolling in all facets, so there should be little to no hesitation when it comes to adding Oliveira as the featured part of your Week 19 lineup.

Sit: Damonte Coxie, WR, Toronto, $10,300 Salary

As recent as Week 14, Coxie was the Argos pass catcher fantasy players wanted in their lineups but since his 27.1 FP performance against the REDBLACKS, he has been more of a complimentary asset while the Toronto passing game has become more diverse with Makai Polk and DaVaris Daniels taking more prominent roles.

The Blue Bombers flustered Bo Levi Mitchell in Week 18, holding the Ticats pivot to just 7.8 yards per pass and recorded two interceptions before Taylor Powell replaced him. Only the Alouettes (87) have a lower opponents QBR than Winnipeg (88), who also allows a league-low 20.3 points per game. Coxie is capable of putting up big numbers but starting him here is a risk fantasy players should not take.

 

Edmonton (5-11-0) at Calgary (4-10-0), Saturday, 3:00 PM

Line: Calgary -1.5

O/U: 51.5 (-115)

Start: Eugene Lewis, WR, Edmonton, $13,000 Salary

Lewis continued his steady relationship with the end zone when he pulled in a major in his sixth straight game during Saturday’s loss to Saskatchewan. The stretch of touchdowns has helped Lewis score at least 18.2 FP four times and leaves him a mere 64 yards away from the third 1,000-yard season of his career.

Despite the Elks being out of the playoff picture, Lewis will continue torching defences as he and quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson take aim against a Stampeders defence that has allowed 22 touchdown passes. Lewis has scored at least 11.6 FP in seven straight games and is perhaps the most reliable target in CFL fantasy play.

Sit: Jake Maier, QB, Calgary, $10,300 Salary

Week 18 did see Maier throw his 19th touchdown of the season, yet it also saw him throw a pick-six along with tossing a backwards pass that resulted in a second defensive major for BC in the fourth quarter before being replaced by Matthew Shiltz. Maier finished with just six FP, the fifth straight game in which he scored fewer than 17 FP.

A change at pivot is possible but at this point, Maier is not an option for fantasy players. He averaged just 6.1 yards per pass in Week 18 and has just one game of multiple touchdown passes since Week 9. Even against a suspect Elks defence, a Maier resurgence is unlikely.

BC (8-8-0) at Saskatchewan (8-7-1), Saturday, 7:00 PM

Line: BC -1.5

O/U: 50.5 (-110)

Start: KeeSean Johnson, WR, Saskatchewan, $4,500 Salary

Johnson continues his bid for Most Outstanding Rookie, catching five passes for 103 yards and a touchdown in the playoff-clinching win over Edmonton on Saturday. He finished with 21.3 FP, the third time he has eclipsed 20 FP since Week 11 while scoring majors in five of his last seven games.

The Lions allow 288 passing yards per game and has a league-high 107.5 QBR to opposing pivots. Saskatchewan is thriving under the play of Trevor Harris, who has thrown for at least 287 yards in four of his last five games and has helped make Johnson into a star that remains shining for fantasy players. Expect nothing but the usual solid production Saturday night.

Sit: Lions Receivers

Had we suggested this in early July, our laptop would have been revoked. However, the BC passing game has lacked in explosiveness since Nathan Rourke took the starting job at pivot away from Vernon Adams ($9,700), evidenced by Rourke averaging a mere 197.3 passing yards in his last three games. That type of production has hampered the numbers of a Lions receiving corps that had just one catch of better than 24 yards in Week 18.

Justin McInnis has averaged just 51.9 yards per game in his last 10 contests and has scored only twice in that span. This from a receiver who looked to be on pace for 2,000 yards in the first weeks of the season; Alexander Hollins hasn’t played since September 6 and was struggling before he was injured. Running back William Stanback is the only BC player worth considering this week and has been the only one who has found fantasy success in the last two months.

 

Ottawa (8-6-1) at Montreal (11-4-1), Monday, 1:00 PM

Line: N/A

O/U: N/A

Start: Justin Hardy, WR, Ottawa, $13,000 Salary

Let’s end our receiver-centric Week 19 with another pass catcher who has become a security blanket for fantasy players. Hardy scored 16.1 FP in Week 17, his fourth straight game of at least 11.7 FP and his fifth this season of at least 20 FP.

Entering Thanksgiving Day, Hardy has rolled off three straight 100-yard outings and has crossed the century mark in four of his last six. Facing Montreal’s airtight pass defence shouldn’t deter fantasy users as Hardy has games of 22.9 FP and 27.5 FP in his two previous meetings against the Alouettes. Pivot remains an issue for the REDBLACKS, but all Hardy needs is someone with an arm, a pulse and just enough time to get open. Be thankful for the league’s top pass catcher and finish the game with an “amen” after Hardy puts up another gem.

Sit: REDBLACKS Pivots

Be it Dru Brown or Jeremiah Masoli Ottawa quarterbacks have not been fantasy-friendly of late. Masoli, starting in place of the injured Brown, finished with only 9.8 FP in Week 17 and has an unhealthy 4-5 TD:INT margin the past three games. Brown has scored a paltry 2.3 FP in his last two games and has just one game of multiple passing majors since Week 7.

Outside of Justin Hardy, fantasy production from Ottawa’s passing game has been spotty at best in the last few games. Hardy, obviously, remains a must-start, but the inconsistency at quarterback is not the type of circumstance fantasy players want heading down the stretch of the regular season.

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