October 29, 2024

Weekly Predictor: Who advances to the Finals?

Arthur Ward/CFL.ca

The CFL season has come to as an unpredictable and wild finish as the entire season has been.

A ‘leaf tornado’ as Marshall Ferguson described on TSN kicked up a wind to knock down a punt and give the Bombers a chance to clinch first in the West and dash the hopes of Rider Nation.

With a season full of streaks and twists and turns, I can only imagine what we’re in store for over the next three weeks until the Grey Cup is presented in Vancouver.

This week we have two teams who ended losing streaks in their final regular season games and two teams who had winning streaks come to an end in the final week of the regular season.

Keep in mind all those games didn’t have an impact on the standings and I don’t think will have much of an impact on the Riders and Argos who lost those games but it’ll be interesting to see a bit of a boost in confidence for the REDBLACKS and Lions as they were stumbling down the stretch.

2023 CFL PLAYOFFS2024 CFL PLAYOFFS
» Matchups Set: Semi-Final Saturday heads to Toronto and Saskatchewan
» Buy Semi-Finals Tickets: BC at Saskatchewan
» Buy Semi-Finals Tickets: Ottawa at Toronto

 

Dru Brown is coming off back-to-back 400-yard games for the REDBLACKS (Kevin Sousa CFL..ca)

Ottawa at Toronto
Saturday, November 2
3:00 p.m. ET

Last time these two teams played, they were at BMO Field with a lot on the line! They were fighting for second in the East and home field advantage for this game and the Argonauts absolutely took it to the REDBLACKS with a 38-6 lead after three quarters.

Ottawa did make it very interesting late with a surge in the final few minutes to get within a touchdown.

After a shaky return to the lineup, Chad Kelly led the Argonauts to a 4-1 record in his last five starts before making way to Cameron Dukes in the season finale.

That’s the type of momentum that is hard to ignore going into the playoffs.

However, Dru Brown did miss time for the REDBLACKS and as he broke off the rust he went back to back games with 400-plus yard passing. That’s also hard to ignore for Ottawa as they get into Saturday’s division Semi-Final.

He also threw for 349 yards against Toronto in a victory back on September 7th.

When you look at the Argonauts, they really pushed up the offensive numbers in the back half of the season but they’ll face a stingy run defence to counter against All-CFL calibre running back Ka’Deem Carey.

That’s where I see this game being won or lost. If Ottawa can stop the best running attack in the East Division and put the ball solely in Kelly’s hands is its best chance to win.

But if Toronto can control the game and leave Brown on the sideline and keep the first time starter from getting in any rhythm it could be a tough afternoon for Ottawa to pull off an upset.

However, I have thought this for the entire back half of the season that Ottawa is missing their top play-maker on defence with Adarius Pickett. His loss has been noticeable for the defence though they do attack with some of the best defensive linemen in the league.

I’m going to go with an Argo team looking for revenge from their playoff disappointment in 2023.

PICK: TORONTO

Harris led the Riders to second place in the West Division (Arthur Ward/CFL.ca)

BC at Saskatchewan
Saturday, November 2
6:30 p.m. ET

If you have asked me who wins three weeks ago before Vernon Adams Jr. returned to quarterback the Lions, I would have picked Saskatchewan with no hesitation.

Of course that was after a 39-8 thumping the Riders dropped on the Lions with Nathan Rourke leading the Lions.

But then you saw Adams Jr. and the Lions look like they got some swagger back in leading the win over Montreal two weeks ago.

You saw a group that have gelled over the last two years with Adams at quarterback. It feels like it’s Adams’ team and he has a firm hold as a leader in the room. That will help the Lions.

You also can’t ignore the only time Adams Jr. led the Lions against the Riders he lit them up for over 400 yards passing in a battle of the top teams in the West Division at the start of the regular season.

The Riders had a hard time containing the Lions passing attack with their zone defence. Keeping the quarterback in the pocket will be vital for the Roughriders defence.

On the other side of the ball you have Trevor Harris, who comes in as the best quarterback in the West over the back half of the season.

Harris’ re-addition to the Riders offence has given them stability and leadership that they lacked for much of the seven game winless streak that drove them out of first place.

But in Corey Mace’s first year as head coach, you can call it a success already to have a home playoff game. Everyone in Rider Nation would have taken that but now that they’re here, it’s nowhere near good enough for a team who we now know have the talent to win it all.

AJ Ouellette was brought in for this exact time of year. He’s a hard running, rugged, running back who is licking his chops to get after it this week. And the Riders are starting to see more and more of its long injured list shrinking as they get closer to the playoffs.

Some tough decisions will be ahead for Mace on how he sets up the roster this week, but it’s a good problem to have.

The one thing I’ll take is the consistency. I think the Riders have been consistent on both side of the ball with their ones in more than the Lions have on their side.

PICK: SASKATCHEWAN

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