November 4, 2024

Head-to-Head: Who has the edge in the Western Final?

Arthur Ward/CFL.ca

The Western Final is an iconic rivalry renewed and a chance to take home bragging rights over a prairie foe for yet another year and a trip to the 111th Grey Cup on the line.

All of this serves as motivation for the upcoming playoff game between Saskatchewan and Winnipeg, a matchup of two teams with very different paths who are now fighting over 60 minutes of football to reach the same destination.

Let’s dive in.

2023 CFL PLAYOFFS2024 CFL PLAYOFFS
»Matchups Set: Division Finals Saturday heads to Winnipeg and Montreal
»Buy Western Final Tickets: Saskatchewan at Winnipeg
» 3 stats that may loom large in the Western Final

QUARTERBACKS

Will Trevor Harris lead his Roughriders to the 111th Grey Cup? (Arthur Ward/CFL.ca)

Trevor Harris is fresh off an in-rhythm performance where he completed 26 of 33 pass attempts for 279 yards and a touchdown while working the pocket effectively and leaning on his running game.

Zach Collaros had the week off after a wind-fuelled victory at Montreal to end the regular season and enters his favourite time of the year. The Bombers passing attack has been battered and bruised all season long with major injuries and Collaros told me a few weeks ago that Winnipeg really had to find new solutions to up their passing game effectiveness, not rely on bringing old answers back to life with a fresh cast of characters asked to play heightened roles.

If Harris can control the game how he did in the Western Semi-Final against BC, the Roughriders have a great chance to reach the Grey Cup for the first time in over a decade.

ADVANTAGE: Saskatchewan

RUNNING BACKS

 

AJ Ouellette ran HARD on Saturday against the BC Lions, and Winnipeg is in the bottom half of the CFL in rush yards allowed per game, but Brady Oliveira in front of a home playoff sellout is an emotionally charged beast.

The matchup of these two power runners will be the peak of true running game in the CFL this season, with the slight edge going Brady’s way thanks to home field advantage and the increasingly impressive Bombers O-line play.

ADVANTAGE: Winnipeg

RECEIVERS

Samuel Emilus led all receivers in the Western Semi-Final with 106 yards (Arthur Ward/CFL.ca)

The Riders pass-catchers had plenty of chances to be great in their Western Semi-Final victory over BC with Samuel Emilus taking the lead in targets (10), catches (nine), and yards (106).

Winnipeg has plenty of work to do if they wish to overthrow Saskatchewan’s receivers for in-game supremacy in this crucial playoff round. Names like Ontaria Wilson and Kevens Clercius will get targets nobody could have imagined available at the start of the season due to injury and adversity, but make no mistake for Winnipeg this game goes through Kenny Lawler and most importantly Nic Demski.

ADVANTANGE: Saskatchewan

OFFENSIVE LINE

Will the Bombers O-line help to lead Brady Oliveira to a big performance against Saskatchewan? (Arthur Ward/CFL.ca)

Patrick Neufeld and Stanley Bryant are officially the old guard of the Bombers line play, with evolving pieces around them the Winnipeg pass protectors have come together well as the season rolled along.

With only one sack allowed more than Saskatchewan, this comes down to rushing totals where Winnipeg ranked third in the CFL in per game yardage.

ADVANTAGE: Winnipeg

DEFENSIVE LINE

Malik Carney had four sacks in the regular season and tallied one in the Western Semi-Final against BC (Arthur Ward/CFL.ca)

Part of the success Corey Mace brought with him from Toronto defensively was the ability to disrupt opposing passers to help the back end create turnovers. Winnipeg had a CFL-low 26 sacks in their first year without Jackson Jeffcoat in the lineup and the Saskatchewan front six or seven defenders all have unique body types and pass rush styles.

The only question here is whether Saskatchewan’s defensive line can maintain their regular season excellence of allowing a CFL-low 80.3 rushing yards per game against Brady Oliveira.

ADVANTAGE: Saskatchewan

LINEBACKERS

Jameer Thurman led the Riders with seven tackles in the Western Semi-Final against BC and will look to do the same against the Bombers this weekend (Arthur Ward/CFL.ca)

I really like Tony Jones game as a replacement for Adam Bighill while Brian Cole and Redha Kramdi have really stepped up their games this year, but I believe Jameer Thurman offsets most, if not all, of that for the Riders and C.J. Reavis joins Thurman on the All-CFL team for good reason.

ADVANTAGE: Saskatchewan

DEFENSIVE BACKS

Rolan Milligan Jr.’s interception late in the game against BC in the Western Semi-Final sealed the deal for the Riders’ win (Arthur Ward/CFL.ca)

Nelson Lokombo got his first career interception this past weekend in a big spot and has roamed the back end effectively in his first year under Corey Mace’s defensive leadership. Fellow Canadian and standout ballhawk Tyrell Ford has jumped into a whole new tier of defensive back class after his 2024 regular season showing.

With all respect to Evan Holm and Deatrick Nichols, the difference here is Rolan Milligan Jr. with closer proximity to the football and a higher ceiling of ball skills that could swipe a Collaros attempt at any point.

ADVANTAGE: Saskatchewan

KICKERS

Will Sergio Castillo be the difference in the Western Final? (Arthur Ward/CFL.ca)

Brett Lauther has been hot down the stretch for Saskatchewan, but Sergio Castillo’s average make depth is a CFL-high 37.1 yards and the range in combination with crunch time cool nerves gives the Bombers the advantage here.

ADVANTAGE: Winnipeg

RETURNERS

Is it time for Mario Alford to get a return touchdown? (Arthur Ward/CFL.ca)

The Bombers return game has been strangely ineffective all year and Mario Alford would love nothing more than to stretch his long strides down the sideline in Winnipeg for a game changing return.

ADVANTAGE: Saskatchewan

SUMMARY

There is no question this game will be intense, close scoring, and likely be defined by the defences especially in the first half.

If the Roughriders want to upset Winnipeg at their house in a memorable way after years of falling short, the blueprint is ready and waiting with Trevor Harris and AJ Ouellette complemented by three level defensive domination.

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