Arthur Ward/CFL.ca
Does home field advantage and a bye week help you get to the 111th Grey Cup?
Well, considering since 2014 the teams hosting the Western and Eastern Final have a record of 15-3 combined is a hint that, yes, it’s a big advantage.
Although, those three wins by road teams have happened in the last four seasons (Winnipeg in 2019, Hamilton in 2021, and Montreal in 2023).
So it’s clear that Winnipeg and Montreal have the edge going into the weekend.
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However, the Roughriders and Argonauts are coming in with a ton of momentum in a season where there isn’t a team that has far and away been the class of the league. Though as last year’s 16-2 Toronto Argonauts will tell you, records don’t matter when the ball is in the air to begin the two games on Saturday.
Now, consider the hottest team in the East Division is the Toronto Argonauts with a 5-1 record when Chad Kelly is starting down the stretch and in the playoffs.
The Roughriders are 5-0 with Trevor Harris as the starting quarterback down the stretch and in the playoffs.
Home field or momentum? What do you believe will make the difference on Saturday?
Toronto at Montreal
Saturday, November 9
3:00 p.m. ET
Revenge must be on the mind of the Argonauts after the Alouettes took it to them and ruined a dream season for the Argonauts in 2023.
But it feels like the shoe is on the other foot this time around. The Alouettes haven’t played a meaningful game in weeks, while the Argonauts are riding the hot hand with a great stretch going into the playoffs.
Oh and keep in mind Toronto is 2-1 against the Alouettes already this season.
I have so many intangibles I like about the Argos right now with the way Chad Kelly is running the offence to Ka’Deem Carey running the ball with big play receivers and as we saw, a big play defence.
They remind me of the way the Alouettes were playing down the stretch last year; a defence that doesn’t miss a play and takes the ball away and an offence with big play potential.
I do see an Alouettes team that showed us all a bit of a spark in a ‘meaningless’ game against Winnipeg and nearly beat the Bombers and would have if it weren’t for that miracle wind shift. To play Winnipeg that strong was a sign that Jason Maas’ philosophy and message got through to the team as the Bombers were playing for first in the West.
The fiery Maas is no doubt going to push the right buttons going into the Eastern Final.
But the same story is going on in both games.
The teams on the road have very strong run defences and decent run attacks against defences who do not stop the run very well.
And what’s the best thing to do on the road? Run the ball, control the clock, and take the fans out of it.
I hated the start for the Argonauts against the REDBLACKS. Dru Brown was allowed to pick them apart but couldn’t finish drives. The Alouettes also are among the best at hitting a big play, while Toronto is one of the most prone to give them up.
Yes. I’m battling which team to pick.
Flip a coin? Nah.
Hunch is leaning big on the Double Blue.
PICK: Toronto
Saskatchewan at Winnipeg
Saturday, November 9
6:30 p.m. ET
A trip to Winnipeg has not looked kindly on the Saskatchewan Roughriders in recent years. They haven’t won a game in Winnipeg in their last eight trips, going back to the Labour Day Weekend rematch victory in 2018.
The Bombers have sold out yet again and they do play in the loudest stadium in the CFL. Any opponent going to Winnipeg has to deal with a week full of fake crowd noise blasting them all practice week long to get ready for a sound that any player I’ve talked to say that you can’t really replicate.
Oh, and you go up against a team that has won four-straight Western Final games.
We also get a head-to-head look at the Bombers offence with Brady Oliveira and the Roughriders defence with Rolan Milligan Jr. There are those that believe the latter should have been the West Nominee for Most Outstanding Player. Of course, the voting is done already but that shouldn’t stop the Roughriders defence from shutting down Oliveira and the run attack for the fourth time this season.
The QB matchup is intriguing as well as Trevor Harris is the West Division All-CFL quarterback and Zach Collaros is the two-time MOP winner who had a down year, although the back half of the season was definitely better than the first. However, Harris as mentioned earlier is a perfect 5-0 in his last five starts at quarterback.
I do believe the Roughriders defence will be able to control Oliveira running the ball but can they stop him catching the ball out of the back field? Oliveira has had some success challenging the Riders in the pass game and then add in Nic Demski, Kenny Lawler and Ontaria Wilson and you have a battle, but the Riders just shut down an offence that is much much more efficient and effective this season.
Give me the strong defence of the Riders and the team that has been able to create turnovers all season.
PICK: Saskatchewan
