November 16, 2024

Ferguson: 6 factors that could determine this year’s Grey Cup

CFL.ca

It’s bittersweet to sit down and begin writing my final analysis of the 2024 season.

The sweetness rests in knowing that the next time I put my fingers to the keyboard, we will be discussing who won the 111th Grey Cup, how they did it, and why the game shook out the way it did.

As with every Grey Cup, there is a special element of randomness that comes with a championship that caps off a 15-day sprint from first to last playoff game, but if I had to guess which aspects of Sunday’s tilt will stick long in the mind once the final whistle blows, this is where I’d lean.

»111th GREY CUP
»
Costabile: How the Bombers can win the 111th Grey Cup
» Steinberg: How the Argonauts can win the 111th Grey Cup
» Prediction Time: CFL.ca writers’ 111th Grey Cup picks
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MIND READER

 

Anyone who watched the Argonauts defence consistently through this season knows all too well that Double Blue linebacker Wynton McManis has a special knack for being at the right place at the right time. Luck? Guessing? Nope.

McManis is such a cerebral player, he understands the Canadian field as well as any current CFL linebacker, and knows how to play opposing quarterbacks into making game-changing errors. If the Argos want to win this game, McManis needs to read Zach Collaros‘ mind once or twice. I wouldn’t put it past him after being unable to play in the 2022 Grey Cup matchup with these same Bombers due to injury.

RELEASE THE BEAST

Will Brady Oliveira add another 100+ yard game to his post-season resume? (Thomas Skrlj/CFL.ca)

Brady Oliveira led the CFL in rushing yards and has the full confidence of all those around him thanks to his focus, drive, and relentless care for his body to always be as fresh as possible to help his team get a big win.

All those ice tubs, physio appointments, meditation and on-field reps combined with top notch film work will culminate in this game with Oliveira getting every chance to take over BC Place on Sunday.

ARGOS MUST BE SPECIAL(ISTS)

Janarion Grant isn’t just a side story in this game, he needs to be a primary part of flipping field position for an Argos return game that has very real scoring potential. Lirim Hajrullahu is as good as they come as a kicker and John Haggerty has one of the biggest legs in CFL punting. 

All three of these elements have to be game breakers for Toronto in the game’s ultra-important third phase.

CAREY THE LOAD

As much as Oliveira has the potential to control the rhythm and pace of this Grey Cup, so too does Ka’Deem Carey, who will no doubt lean on his previous Grey Cup experience and a powerful Argos run blocking scheme. 

With Arbuckle under centre, you have to expect a more conservative attack, which I expect to be run heavy early on. The question becomes how long can Toronto choose the ground game if Zach Collaros fires a couple deep shots to Kenny Lawler and the Argos find themselves down a couple scores before halftime?

ARBUCKLE’S ACCURACY

How will Arbuckle handle being thrust into the starting role on Sunday? (Thomas Skrlj/CFL.ca)

There’s no secret that Nick Arbuckle has to be on point against the CFL’s top defence in many traditional statistical categories. For me, the largest looming question is ball placement. From Evan Holm to Tyrell Ford to Deatrick Nichols and more, the Bombers excel at attacking the football in flight, and Toronto’s passing game needs to be precise.

The key to all this is Arbuckle putting the ball where only his receiver can collect it, or the momentum could shift drastically with an unexpected turnover, such as the Hamilton Tiger-Cats’ early interception five years ago in this game against the Bombers.

DINWIDDIE’S DESIGN

 

This article is about the factors that can, should, and I believe, WILL define the Grey Cup. None of the above points mean more than this. Ryan Dinwiddie and his coaching staff got thrown the ultimate curveball with Chad Kelly’s injury in the Eastern Final which raised one massive question the second they stepped off the turf in Montreal.

“What is our approach in the Grey Cup?”

Will the Argos lean on Ka’Deem Carey, let Arbuckle open it up and play free as if he IS Chad Kelly, try to hybridize the two concepts by extending the run game into multiple early screen plays in an attempt to not become one dimensional, or go completely off the board with concepts we couldn’t have expected?

This and this alone will define the 111th Grey Cup, and we’ll know the answer to Dinwiddie’s mindset within a couple drives.

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