Insight and Analysis
September 15, 2025
KPMG Playoff Probability: Who is the 112th Grey Cup favourite?
Geoff Robins/CFL.ca
TORONTO — There’s a new Grey Cup favourite.
After Week 15’s results, it’s the Hamilton Tiger-Cats that have emerged as the top dogs to win it all.
KPMG Playoff Probability, formerly know as the CFL Simulation, is here to tell us which team is the favourite to win the 112th Grey Cup and much more.
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As always, we’ll give readers a reminder that Playoff Probability is a snapshot of this particular moment in the season, working with the data provided by teams’ records through the first 15 weeks of play.
Below is where every team stands ahead of Week 16.
| Odds to Make Playoffs | |
| TEAM | PROJECTION |
| Saskatchewan | C |
| Hamilton | 99.62% |
| Calgary | 97.29% |
| Montreal | 68.64% |
| BC | 65.54% |
| Winnipeg | 58.53% |
| Toronto | 55.31% |
| Ottawa | 25.46% |
| Edmonton | 29.31% |
| Odds to Host a Playoff Game | |
| TEAM | PROJECTION |
| Hamilton | 99.73% |
| Saskatchewan | 97.01% |
| Calgary | 81.83% |
| Montreal | 52.14% |
| Toronto | 34.34% |
| Ottawa | 13.79% |
| BC | 13.38% |
| Winnipeg | 5.98% |
| Edmonton | 1.80% |
| Odds to Win the East | |
| TEAM | PROJECTION |
| Hamilton | 98.32% |
| Montreal | 0.85% |
| Toronto | 0.52% |
| Ottawa | 0.31% |
| Odds to Win the West | |
| TEAM | PROJECTION |
| Saskatchewan | 61.09% |
| Calgary | 36.46% |
| BC | 1.79% |
| Winnipeg | 0.50% |
| Edmonton | 0.16% |
| Odds to Appear in the 112th Grey Cup | |
| TEAM | PROJECTION |
| Hamilton | 77.49% |
| Calgary | 43.03% |
| Saskatchewan | 41.14% |
| BC | 11.01% |
| Toronto | 9.84% |
| Montreal | 6.27% |
| Winnipeg | 5.10% |
| Edmonton | 3.78% |
| Ottawa | 2.34% |
| Odds to Win the 112th Grey Cup | |
| TEAM | PROJECTION |
| Hamilton | 39.67% |
| Calgary | 25.56% |
| Saskatchewan | 16.85% |
| BC | 6.13% |
| Toronto | 4.46% |
| Winnipeg | 2.37% |
| Montreal | 2.11% |
| Edmonton | 2.03% |
| Ottawa | 0.82% |
| Most Likely 112th Grey Cup Matchups | |
| TEAM | PROJECTION |
| Calgary/Hamilton | 33.15% |
| Saskatchewan/Hamilton | 31.88% |
| BC/Hamilton | 7.31% |
| Calgary/Toronto | 4.26% |
| Saskatchewan/Toronto | 4.02% |
| Probability of a West Division Crossover |
| 50.67% |
