KPMG Playoff Probability: Who is the favourite to win the 112th Grey Cup?
Leah Hennel/CFL.ca
TORONTO — The BC Lions have emerged as the new Grey Cup favourites.
With a dominant performance on the road against the team with the league’s second best record, Calgary, Nathan Rourke and his Lions have emerged as the top dogs (cats) to win it all.
KPMG Playoff Probability, formerly know as the CFL Simulation, is here to tell us which team is the favourite to win the 112th Grey Cup and much more.
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As always, we’ll give readers a reminder that Playoff Probability is a snapshot of this particular moment in the season, working with the data provided by teams’ records through the first 16 weeks of play.
Below is where every team stands ahead of Week 17.
| Odds to Make Playoffs | |
| TEAM | PROJECTION |
| Saskatchewan | C |
| Hamilton | >99.99% |
| Montreal | 97.36% |
| BC | 96.98% |
| Winnipeg | 90.23% |
| Calgary | 82.87% |
| Toronto | 18.01% |
| Edmonton | 10.86% |
| Ottawa | 3.69% |
| Odds to Host a Playoff Game | |
| TEAM | PROJECTION |
| Hamilton | 99.99% |
| Montreal | 95.81% |
| Saskatchewan | 95.03% |
| BC | 63.23% |
| Winnipeg | 24.61% |
| Calgary | 16.60% |
| Toronto | 2.67% |
| Ottawa | 1.53% |
| Edmonton | 0.53% |
| Odds to Win the East | |
| TEAM | PROJECTION |
| Hamilton | 99.81% |
| Montreal | 0.89% |
| Toronto | <0.01% |
| Ottawa | E |
| Odds to Win the West | |
| TEAM | PROJECTION |
| Saskatchewan | 85.69% |
| Calgary | 3.75% |
| BC | 6.30% |
| Winnipeg | 4.26% |
| Edmonton | E |
| Odds to Appear in the 112th Grey Cup | |
| TEAM | PROJECTION |
| Hamilton | 76.83% |
| BC | 47.35% |
| Saskatchewan | 40.92% |
| Montreal | 15.41% |
| Winnipeg | 12.25% |
| Calgary | 4.53% |
| Toronto | 1.47% |
| Edmonton | 0.97% |
| Ottawa | 0.27% |
| Odds to Win the 112th Grey Cup | |
| TEAM | PROJECTION |
| BC | 34.51% |
| Hamilton | 33.41% |
| Saskatchewan | 18.22% |
| Winnipeg | 6.35% |
| Montreal | 4.97% |
| Calgary | 1.59% |
| Toronto | 0.48% |
| Edmonton | 0.39% |
| Ottawa | 0.08% |
| Most Likely 112th Grey Cup Matchups | |
| TEAM | PROJECTION |
| BC/Hamilton | 35.14% |
| Saskatchewan/Hamilton | 31.23% |
| Winnipeg/Hamilton | 7.63% |
| BC/Montreal | 7.20% |
| Saskatchewan/Montreal | 6.24% |
| Probability of a West Division Crossover |
| 80.94 |
