KPMG Playoff Probability: Which team is the Grey Cup favourite?
Jason Halstead/CFL.ca
TORONTO — There’s a new Grey Cup favourite.
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers have emerged as the team most likely to win this year’s championship after their convincing 37-point win over the Hamilton Tiger-Cats.
KPMG Playoff Probability, formerly know as the CFL Simulation, is here to tell us which team is the favourite to win the 112th Grey Cup and much more.
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As always, we’ll give readers a reminder that Playoff Probability is a snapshot of this particular moment in the season, working with the data provided by teams’ records through the first 17 weeks of play.
Below is where every team stands ahead of Week 18.
| Odds to Make Playoffs | |
| TEAM | PROJECTION |
| Saskatchewan | C |
| Hamilton | C |
| Montreal | 98.86% |
| Winnipeg | 98.83% |
| BC | 98.52% |
| Calgary | 75.15% |
| Toronto | 17.22% |
| Edmonton | 7.18% |
| Ottawa | 4.24% |
| Odds to Host a Playoff Game | |
| TEAM | PROJECTION |
| Hamilton | C |
| Montreal | 97.70% |
| Saskatchewan | 89.57% |
| Winnipeg | 52.93% |
| BC | 50.76% |
| Calgary | 6.57% |
| Ottawa | 1.46% |
| Toronto | 0.84% |
| Edmonton | 0.17% |
| Odds to Win the East | |
| TEAM | PROJECTION |
| Hamilton | 96.51% |
| Montreal | 3.49% |
| Toronto | E |
| Ottawa | E |
| Odds to Win the West | |
| TEAM | PROJECTION |
| Saskatchewan | 80.29% |
| Winnipeg | 13.56% |
| BC | 4.42% |
| Calgary | 1.73% |
| Edmonton | E |
| Odds to Appear in the 112th Grey Cup | |
| TEAM | PROJECTION |
| Hamilton | 54.02% |
| Saskatchewan | 36.87% |
| Winnipeg | 36.79% |
| Montreal | 36.39% |
| BC | 30.41% |
| Calgary | 2.33% |
| Toronto | 2.12% |
| Ottawa | 0.55% |
| Edmonton | 0.52% |
| Odds to Win the 112th Grey Cup | |
| TEAM | PROJECTION |
| Winnipeg | 29.49% |
| BC | 22.71% |
| Saskatchewan | 21.91% |
| Hamilton | 12.48% |
| Montreal | 11.91% |
| Toronto | 0.66% |
| Calgary | 0.53% |
| Edmonton | 0.16% |
| Ottawa | 0.15% |
| Most Likely 112th Grey Cup Matchups | |
| TEAM | PROJECTION |
| Saskatchewan/Hamilton | 19.58% |
| Winnipeg/Hamilton | 19.02% |
| BC/Hamilton | 15.02% |
| Saskatchewan/Montreal | 13.37% |
| Winnipeg/Montreal | 12.32% |
| Probability of a West Division Crossover |
| 79.68% |
