Arthur Ward/CFL.ca
TORONTO — Another week, another new Grey Cup favourite.
Post-OK Tire Labour Day Weekend, there has been a different Grey Cup favourite every week. That’s a great example of just how close this season is, with many teams having the formula to hoist the coveted trophy in November.
Heading into WestJet Thanksgiving Weekend, the Saskatchewan Roughriders have become the first team to emerge as the favourite for a second time.
KPMG Playoff Probability, formerly know as the CFL Simulation, is here to tell us which team is the favourite to win the 112th Grey Cup and much more.
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As always, we’ll give readers a reminder that Playoff Probability is a snapshot of this particular moment in the season, working with the data provided by teams’ records through the first 18 weeks of play.
Below is where every team stands ahead of Week 19.
| Odds to Make Playoffs | |
| TEAM | PROJECTION |
| Saskatchewan | C |
| Hamilton | C |
| Montreal | C |
| BC | C |
| Winnipeg | 99.06% |
| Calgary | 88.04% |
| Edmonton | 12.90% |
| Toronto | E |
| Ottawa | E |
| Odds to Host a Playoff Game | |
| TEAM | PROJECTION |
| Hamilton | C |
| Montreal | C |
| Saskatchewan | 99.62% |
| Winnipeg | 49.96% |
| BC | 46.14% |
| Calgary | 4.28% |
| Ottawa | E |
| Toronto | E |
| Edmonton | E |
| Odds to Win the East | |
| TEAM | PROJECTION |
| Hamilton | 99.87% |
| Montreal | 0.13% |
| Toronto | E |
| Ottawa | E |
| Odds to Win the West | |
| TEAM | PROJECTION |
| Saskatchewan | 97.85% |
| BC | 1.35% |
| Calgary | 0.80% |
| Winnipeg | E |
| Edmonton | E |
| Odds to Appear in the 112th Grey Cup | |
| TEAM | PROJECTION |
| Hamilton | 72.21% |
| Saskatchewan | 55.74% |
| Winnipeg | 29.60% |
| Montreal | 22.04% |
| BC | 17.75% |
| Calgary | 1.81% |
| Edmonton | 0.85% |
| Toronto | E |
| Ottawa | E |
| Odds to Win the 112th Grey Cup | |
| TEAM | PROJECTION |
| Saskatchewan | 33.26% |
| Hamilton | 25.15% |
| Winnipeg | 22.21% |
| BC | 11.83% |
| Montreal | 6.91% |
| Calgary | 0.35% |
| Edmonton | 0.29% |
| Toronto | E |
| Ottawa | E |
| Most Likely 112th Grey Cup Matchups | |
| TEAM | PROJECTION |
| Saskatchewan/Hamilton | 40.07% |
| Winnipeg/Hamilton | 19.95% |
| Saskatchewan/Montreal | 12.28% |
| BC/Hamilton | 11.73% |
| Winnipeg/Montreal | 6.16% |
| Probability of a West Division Crossover |
| C |
