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October 27, 2025

KPMG Playoff Probability: Who is the 112th Grey Cup favourite?

Matt Smith/CFL.ca

TORONTO — Heading into the Division Semi-Finals, the Saskatchewan Roughriders are still the favourites to win the 112th Grey Cup.

The Riders are on a bye this week and will host the Western Final on November 8. The team now awaits the winner of the Western Semi-Final between the Calgary Stampeders and BC Lions.

KPMG Playoff Probability, formerly known as the CFL Simulation, is here to tell us which team is the favourite to win the 112th Grey Cup and much more.

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As always, we’ll give readers a reminder that Playoff Probability is a snapshot of this particular moment in the season, working with the data provided by teams’ records through 21 weeks of regular season play.

Below is where every team stands ahead of the Division Semi-Finals.

Odds to Appear in the 112th Grey Cup
TEAM PROJECTION
Hamilton 62.73%
Saskatchewan 51.20%
BC 33.75%
Montreal 23.47%
Calgary 15.05%
Winnipeg 13.80%

 

Odds to Win the 112th Grey Cup
TEAM PROJECTION
Saskatchewan 30.08%
BC 25.63%
Hamilton 18.83%
Calgary 11.52%
Montreal 8.50%
Winnipeg 5.44%

 

Most Likely 112th Grey Cup Matchups
TEAM PROJECTION
Saskatchewan/Hamilton 32.05%
BC/Hamilton 21.22%
Saskatchewan/Montreal 12.07%
Calgary/Hamilton 9.45%
BC/Montreal 7.86%
Saskatchewan/Winnipeg 7.07%
BC/Winnipeg 4.68%
Calgary/Montreal 3.55%
Calgary/Winnipeg 2.05%

 

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