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November 3, 2025

KPMG Playoff Probability: Who is the 112th Grey Cup favourite?

Ethan Cairns/CFL.ca

TORONTO — Heading into the Division Finals, the BC Lions are the favourites to win the 112th Grey Cup.

Fresh off of their Division Semi-Final win over the Calgary Stampeders, Nathan Rourke and his Lions have emerged as the ones to win it all on November 16.

KPMG Playoff Probability, formerly known as the CFL Simulation, is here to tell us which team is the favourite to win the 112th Grey Cup and much more.

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As always, we’ll give readers a reminder that Playoff Probability is a snapshot of this particular moment in the season, working with the data provided by teams’ records through 21 weeks of regular season play and one round of playoffs.

Below is where every team stands ahead of the Division Finals.

Odds to Appear in the 112th Grey Cup
TEAM PROJECTION
Hamilton 63.63%
Saskatchewan 51.18%
BC 48.82%
Montreal 36.37%

 

Odds to Win the 112th Grey Cup
TEAM PROJECTION
BC 37.15%
Saskatchewan 30.10%
Hamilton 19.42%
Montreal 13.33%

 

Most Likely 112th Grey Cup Matchups
TEAM PROJECTION
Saskatchewan/Hamilton 32.56%
BC/Hamilton 31.06%
Saskatchewan/Montreal 18.62%
BC/Montreal 17.76%

 

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