September 21, 2023

CFL Simulation: Ticats on the rise

Thomas Skrlj/CFL.ca

TORONTO — As teams start to surge in this second half of the regular season, we’re seeing their playoff possibilities grow in the CFL Simulation.

Last week, we looked at how the Hamilton Tiger-Cats had less playoff probability than the Montreal Alouettes — who hold the season series and are in front of them in the standings — but had a greater shot at playoff success, if they could get there. The Ticats’ win over the Winnipeg Blue Bombers last week has increased their Grey Cup aspirations in this week’s edition of the Simulation. The same can be said for the BC Lions, who gained ground on the West-leading Bombers with their last-second comeback win over the Ottawa REDBLACKS.

Despite the loss to the Ticats, the Bombers remain a favourite to be the last West team standing in November and it’ll come as no surprise that the team that the Simulation picks to meet them in Hamilton for the 110th Grey Cup is the 11-1 Toronto Argonauts.

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Check out the latest CFL Simulation to see where your team stands.

*C: Clinched a particular outcome
*E: Eliminated from achieving a particular outcome

ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS
Team (Projected record) Projection
Toronto Argonauts (15-3) C
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (13-5) C
BC Lions (11-7) 99.99%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats (9-9) 98.83%
Montreal Alouettes (8-10) 91.68%
Saskatchewan Roughriders (7-11) 52.71%
Calgary Stampeders (7-11) 40.78%
Edmonton Elks (6-12) 8.17%
Ottawa REDBLACKS (5-13) 7.83%

 

ODDS TO HOST PLAYOFF GAME
Team  Projection
Toronto Argonauts C
Winnipeg Blue Bombers >99.99%
BC Lions 99.80%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 71.32%
Montreal Alouettes 28.35%
Ottawa REDBLACKS 0.33%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 0.20%
Calgary Stampeders E
Edmonton Elks E

 

ODDS TO WIN EAST
Team  Projection
Toronto Argonauts C
Montreal Alouettes E
Hamilton Tiger-Cats E
Ottawa REDBLACKS E

 

ODDS TO WIN WEST
Team  Projection
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 73.06%
BC Lions 26.94%
Saskatchewan Roughriders <0.01%
Calgary Stampeders E
Edmonton Elks E

 

ODDS TO APPEAR IN 110TH GREY CUP
Team  Projection
Toronto Argonauts 85.34%
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 81.33%
BC Lions 16.66%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 12.23%
Montreal Alouettes 2.23%
Calgary Stampeders 1.49%
Edmonton Elks 0.30%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 0.26%
Ottawa REDBLACKS 0.17%

 

ODDS TO WIN 110TH GREY CUP
Team  Projection
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 54.01%
Toronto Argonauts 35.43%
BC Lions 6.27%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 3.17%
Calgary Stampeders 0.56%
Montreal Alouettes 0.35%
Edmonton Elks 0.14%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 0.04%
Ottawa REDBLACKS 0.03%

 

MOST LIKELY 110TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS
Team  Projection
Winnipeg-Toronto 69.34%
BC-Toronto 14.28%
Winnipeg-Hamilton 10.01%
BC-Hamilton 1.97%
Winnipeg-Montreal 1.81%

The model considers the following:

  • Each team’s current win-loss record.
  • Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
  • Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
  • Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
  • Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 100,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team). For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).

For instance, if Toronto won the Grey Cup in 20,190 of the 100,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 20,190 / 100,000 = 20.19%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.

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