Johany Jutras/CFL.ca
TORONTO — While the Ticats are back in the running for a playoff spot, the race for the West appears to be down to two horses — or, more accurately, one horse and a Bomber.
The numbers are out with this week’s CFL Simulation and they certainly favour the Tabbies, who watch their playoff odds improve from 4.6 per cent to 19.5 per cent after winning in Vancouver.
While the Black and Gold only kept pace with the first-place Argos, who also won in Week 14, they passed the Montreal Alouettes and moved to within five points of the second-place REDBLACKS with two games in hand.
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Jeremiah Masoli and the Ticats vastly improved their playoff odds with a big Week 14 win (The Canadian Press)
The West, much like the East, is entirely up in the air with six weeks in the regular season remaining. Out west, however, the chance to win the division and host the Western Final appears to be down to two teams.
A Calgary win combined with a BC loss clinched a playoff spot for the Stamps and assured the Lions they can no longer win the division, while Saskatchewan and Edmonton will have to overcome monumental odds to claw back and claim the West.
The Bombers, however, remain a threat, trailing the Stamps by five points with a game in hand — and a head-to-head matchup still remaining.
We dive head first into the numbers below:
Here is a look at how the teams stack up:
Odds to Make Playoffs |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 100% |
| Blue Bombers | 99.97% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 92.87% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 91.48% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 87.37% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 77.49% |
| BC Lions | 31.01% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 19.45% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 0.36% |
Odds to Win East |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | 60.06% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 34.51% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 5.43% |
| Montreal Alouettes | < 0.01% |
Odds to Win West |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 93.92% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 6.08% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | < 0.01% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | < 0.01% |
| BC Lions | NULL |
Odds to Appear in 105th Grey Cup |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 74.19% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 43.91% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 37.17% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 22.69% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 11.80% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 4.71% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 3.28% |
| BC Lions | 2.25% |
| Montreal Alouettes | < 0.01% |
Odds to Win 105th Grey Cup |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 64.59% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 18.60% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 5.36% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 5.35% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 4.88% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 0.51% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 0.40% |
| BC Lions | 0.31% |
| Montreal Alouettes | < 0.01% |
Most Likely 105th Grey Cup Matchups |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary-Toronto | 32.49% |
| Calgary-Ottawa | 27.45% |
| Winnipeg-Toronto | 9.94% |
| Winnipeg-Ottawa | 8.48% |
| Calgary-Saskatchewan | 6.71% |
The model considers the following:
• Each team’s current win-loss record.
• Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
• Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
• Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
• Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule. The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins. For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.
For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the Western Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
