Johany Jutras/CFL.ca
TORONTO — With one playoff spot clinched and one team eliminated, seven teams are fighting for five playoff spots over the final month of the season.
The race is especially wide open in the East, where the Hamilton Tiger-Cats have only muddied the playoff waters. With their upset win over the Blue Bombers, June Jones’ Ticats are 4-2 since Labour Day and control their own playoff destiny.
Can the Tabbies win out and punch an unexpected post-season ticket?
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The Ticats aren’t the only ones whose playoff odds improved this week. The Edmonton Eskimos made some space between themselves and the BC Lions, increasing their chances to 86.56 per cent.
The REDBLACKS’ playoff odds dropped, yet their odds of winning the East actually increased with their victory combined with an Argos loss.
Finally, while the Riders are listed as the third-likeliest team to win the Grey Cup in November, the Lions’ post-season hopes are on life support.
CFL Simulation takes a closer look.
Here is a look at how the teams stack up:
Odds to Make Playoffs |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 100% |
| Blue Bombers | 99.91% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 99.70% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 98.33% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 86.56% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 75.16% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 26.53% |
| BC Lions | 13.81% |
| Montreal Alouettes | NULL |
Odds to Win East |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | 81.20% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 12.84% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 5.96% |
| Montreal Alouettes | NULL |
Odds to Win West |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 99.74% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 0.26% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | NULL |
| Edmonton Eskimos | NULL |
| BC Lions | NULL |
Odds to Appear in 105th Grey Cup |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 90.30% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 63.36% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 22.74% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 7.62% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 7.52% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 4.25% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 3.53% |
| BC Lions | 0.68% |
| Montreal Alouettes | NULL |
Odds to Win 105th Grey Cup |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 81.22% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 7.63% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 4.61% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 2.61% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 2.59% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 0.89% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 0.38% |
| BC Lions | 0.07% |
| Montreal Alouettes | NULL |
Most Likely 105th Grey Cup Matchups |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary-Toronto | 57.16% |
| Calgary-Ottawa | 20.47% |
| Calgary-Hamilton | 6.82% |
| Saskatchewan-Toronto | 3.49% |
| Calgary-Edmonton | 3.04% |
The model considers the following:
• Each team’s current win-loss record.
• Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
• Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
• Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
• Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule. The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins. For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.
For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the West Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
