Johany Jutras/CFL
TORONTO — The Canadian Football League, where there’s no such thing as a sure thing.
Pick ‘Em players learned that quickly last season, when fans went all-in on the heavy favourites early in 2015 and got burned.
An early look at the Week 1 pick trends reveal some heavy favourites again, but before jumping on the popular picks we’d like to urge caution – expect there to be upsets.
While the first week approaches quickly and you look to get your streak on with that perfect 4-0 week, we look back on the five biggest CFL Pick ‘Em upsets in 2015.
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5. Toronto 26, Edmonton 11 (Week 1) – 85%
The CFL is always unpredictable, but that’s especially the case out of the gate. Given that, it’s only appropriate to start with a Week 1 matchup, the fifth-biggest upset of the 2015 season.
With the Argos starting Trevor Harris at quarterback and playing a home game in front of an Eskimos crowd in Fort McMurray, it’s easy to see why the Eskimos were an 85 per cent favourite among Pick ‘Em players going into Week 1.
The eventual Grey Cup Champions didn’t play like it on that day, as Harris enjoyed a career day against a stingy Chris Jones defence while the Argos’ rookie receivers stepped onto the big stage in a big way. The Argos won the game 26-11, stunning all but 15 per cent of Pick ‘Em players.
» Related: What type of Pick ‘Em player are you?
4. Montreal 17, Hamilton 13 (Week 4) – 85%
By Week 4, word had already gotten out on Rakeem Cato while the Ticats were humming on the wake of a bye week preceded by a 52-26 blowout victory over the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. It was hard to imagine a roaring and well-rested Ticats team falling to a 23-year-old rookie quarterback, but that’s just what happened.
Cato threw for 264 yards and the game-winning touchdown to S.J. Green, while Zach Collaros made arguably his worst start of 2015 as the Alouettes gutted out a 17-13 home win over the division rival Ticats.
3. Ottawa 29, Calgary 26 (Week 5) – 86%
Not many home dogs make this list but Ottawa was a huge underdog for its Week 5 matchup in late July vs. the defending Grey Cup Champion Calgary Stampeders.
It looked like the roof was starting to fall in on the REDBLACKS – who started 2-0 before dropping back to back decisions to the Edmonton Eskimos rather convincingly – and few people were giving them a chance to upset Calgary at home.
An 84-yard catch and run by Chris Williams, his first touchdown as a REDBLACK, and some overtime heroics helped Ottawa earn what then seemed like a highly unlikely victory. Of course by the end of the year it would come as no surprise. By then the REDBLACKS had emerged as a Grey Cup contender.
2. Montreal 26, Hamilton 23 (Week 10) – 95%
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice? Yes, Pick ‘Em players were fooled many times by the Alouettes in 2015, but no more than when they played the Hamilton Tiger-Cats.
Despite already having beaten the Ticats back in Week 4, the Alouettes were a 95 per cent dog going into their matchup with the Ticats at Tim Hortons Field – a place the Ticats had never lost a game through 2014 and the first half of 2015.
Neither the odds nor an injury to starter Rakeem Cato deterred the Alouettes, who silenced the Tim Hortons Field faithful for the first time with a 26-23 victory. Tanner Marsh set ‘em up while Boris Bede knocked down the go-ahead field goal with 1:35 left, securing what would be only the second-biggest upset of the season.
1. Montreal 29, Calgary 11 (Week 2) – 96%
We wouldn’t blame you If you hadn’t heard of Rakeem Cato before Week 2 last season.
The 23-year-old quarterback missed most of training camp and was making his first career start, forced into action after the Als lost their first and second options in a season-opening loss. The Stamps, of course, were the defending Grey Cup Champs.
» Rewind: Cato magic as Als shock Stamps
Rakeem Cato during his first career start in Montreal (The Canadian Press)
What happened next, no one could see coming. Well, almost no one.
Cato completed 80 per cent of his passes and threw for 241 yards and three touchdowns while the Stampeders managed only three points through the first three quarters, leading to a 29-11 Alouettes win.
It was the biggest upset of 2015 and stands as the biggest CFL Pick ‘Em upset of all time, and it just goes to show that anything can happen.
With that, we flip the calendar and start it all over again with Week 1. The Ticats, Bombers, Eskimos and Stampeders are all heavy favourites, and if they all come through, there may be a lot of Pick ‘Em players with a perfect 4-0 start to the season. Of course, when does that ever happen?
