THE CANADIAN PRESS
With the pre-season mercifully over (20 years from now we will all remember where we were when Danny O’Brien courageously ran for a touchdown to cut the Tiger-Cats’ lead to 38-18. It will be this generation’s O.J. Simpson Ford Bronco chase moment), we can now get ready for the regular season and for one of my favourite pieces to write, the Bodog regular season win totals column!
Quick primer: Every year Bodog, an online gambling company, puts out a number for how many regular season wins each CFL team will get. The joy is you get to bet on whether or not you think your favourite team will go over or under that number. Since sports is so polarizing I will explain why your team will definitely go over that disrespectfully low number that Bodog has set AND also why there isn’t a chance in hell your team will ever soar to such impossible heights and match the win total that Bodog has so naively set for you team. Let’s do this!
BC Lions
O/U 8.5 (Last year: 7-11)
Jennings drops back to pass during Lions training camp (The Canadian Press)
Why the BC Lions will go over the 8.5 wins total:
Only the Ottawa REDBLACKS have better depth at quarterback than the Lions. Jonathon Jennings came out of nowhere and looked fantastic in stretches of last season as he completed 66 per cent of his passes for 2,004 yards, with 15 touchdowns and a quarterback rating of 99.8. Not bad for a guy who wasn’t on anyone’s radar screen coming into last season.
I don’t think fans should be concerned about the loss of Andrew Harris, who had a brilliant career with the Lions. Yes it will be weird to see him in a Blue Bombers uniform but the additions of Jeremiah Johnson and Anthony Allen will more than make up for his loss. Johnson was Ottawa’s leading rusher before getting hurt and Allen was second on the Roughriders last year.
I haven’t even mentioned the return of Solomon Elimimian who will be eased back into the starting lineup. I don’t expect to see the 2014 version early on but even at 85 per cent the guy will be a difference maker.
Why the BC Lions will not go over the 8.5 wins total:
Technically the Lions are a “playoff” team but really how good are you when you finish the year four games under .500 and in the playoffs you lost by 26 points? Yes Jennings had some great moments in the regular season and looked good in this pre-season against Calgary but he no longer will have the element of surprise on his side. In 2015 Jennings overcame the first hurdle for every young football player: he proved he can start. But 2016 will be far different. During the off-season eight different defensive coaching staffs studied every inch of tape on his strengths and weaknesses. Now comes the hard part: can Jennings not only adjust to what the rest of the league will throw at him but can he thrive?
The other questions are the typical medical ones: how will Solomon Elimimian’s right Achilles tendon hold up? How are Lulay’s knees feeling? And at age 66, is this really what Wally Buono had in mind as he enters his golden years?
Calgary Stampeders
O/U 11.5 (Last year: 14-4)
Messam holds out the ball during pre-season action in B.C. (The Canadian Press)
Why the Calgary Stampeders will go over the 11.5 wins total:
Uh because going over 11.5 wins is just what they do in Calgary. Over the past six seasons Calgary has averaged 13 wins a season, just a ridiculously high total when you consider the turnover in this league. I expect a smooth transition from John Hufnagel to Dave Dickenson. It really was time for Hufnagel to hand over coaching duties to Dickenson who has been waiting for years to accept this challenge. Calgary shouldn’t miss a beat with Hufnagel staying on as the team’s General Manager and President.
You find me a better architect in this league than Hufnagel. On the field Calgary is littered with all-stars at just about every key position. The offensive line allowed the fewest sacks in the league and will help Calgary once again be among the league leaders in rushing. Bo Levi Mitchell can win games on his own; Drew Tate has proven he can carry a team and Rene Parades can win you the close games. Basically what I’m saying is if you’re betting on a team to win, Calgary is basically the safest bet out there.
Why the Calgary Stampeders will not go over the 11.5 wins total:
Shoot, 12 wins is a lot to ask of any team, even one as stable as Calgary. No team suffered a bigger individual loss than receiver Eric Rogers. That dude made Mitchell better, took pressure off the other receivers and helped a lot of fans win their fantasy leagues. Can Marquay McDaniel really be a true No. 1 guy? Bakari Grant is a nice addition but wow do you lose a lot of production with Rogers south of the border.
I love Jerome Messam but the combination of “physical style back” and “30 years old” is usually an unsustainable combination. When healthy he’ll look great behind that offensive line but trusting him to start 18 games is a foolish idea.
Finally, the defensive backfield took a hit when team leader and eight-year veteran Keon Raymond left for the Argonauts.
Edmonton Eskimos
O/U 11.5 (Last year: 14-4)
Mike Reilly pulls back his arm during Eskimos camp in Edmonton (Esks.com)
Why the Edmonton Eskimos will go over the 11.5 wins total:
You find me another team with a bigger chip on its shoulder than Edmonton? The Eskimos got about 36 hours to enjoy their Grey Cup win before the “Chris Jones is leaving” stories started to surface. Then they had to read stories about how they would be fighting it out for the bottom of the West. How many times does a defending champ get to play the ‘no one believes in us” card in June?
They have the current ‘best QB in the game’ belt holder in Mike Reilly who went 8-of-9 for 132 yards and one touchdown in just two series against Saskatchewan. Yes it is only the pre-season but the dude looks sharp. I fully acknowledge the team is taking a step back at the coaching position but remember just how good Ottawa’s offence looked last year with Jason Maas as the offensive coordinator. He should work quite well with Reilly.
Finally, every year there is one player that I immediately proclaim is going to be a star based on an irresponsibly small sample size. This year it’s running back Joe McKnight, who I loved at USC and had an 85-yard touchdown run over the weekend. I’m sure I’ll be proven wrong at some point but damn is he a guy that could make any offence just that much more dangerous.
Why the Edmonton Eskimos will not go over the 11.5 wins total:
The obvious is losing Chris Jones who is basically a wizard. There is no sport where a head coach can wield as much influence as football and wherever Jones goes he wins. But beyond the head coach the Eskimos took serious hit personnel wise. Just look at this list of talented players who have departed: Andrew Jones, Shamawd Chambers, Kendial Lawrence, Otha Foster and Kenny Stafford. Oh and that doesn’t even include what the NFL did to their defence nabbing Dexter McCoil, Willie Jefferson and Aaron Grymes. That’s a lot of big plays that have to be replaced. That is not to say there aren’t players waiting in the wings to become stars but it takes time for any player to develop into an impact starter and it feels like a lot of these replacements will be a year away.
Hamilton Tiger-Cats
O/U 11.5 (Last year: 10-8)
Jeremiah Masoli follows through during pre-season action at BMO Field (The Canadian Press)
Why the Hamilton Tiger-Cats will go over the 10.5 wins total:
Because Jeremiah Masoli is better than people think. He has looked poised throughout training camp and into the pre-season; he managed one playoff win against Toronto and played well enough to win in the Eastern Final against Ottawa, throwing for 349 yards and adding another 44 on the ground while accounting for two touchdowns. The team has more than enough talent at the skill positions and the offensive line to help Masoli keep the offence afloat.
Hamilton lost seven defensive starters including some all star level talent in the off-season but if there is a coordinator who can work in new faces and maintain a high level it’s Orlondo Steinauer, who will most certainly be a head coach next year. The team still has nice base of Ted Laurent and Simoni Lawrence to work out from.
Lastly there is Zach Collaros. His eventual return will represent a power shift throughout the East if Collaros can handle the mental minefields that come with returning from such a devastating injury. Make no mistake, Hamilton would have been favoured in just about every game last year if Collaros had been healthy.
Why the Hamilton Tiger-Cats will not go over the 10.5 wins total:
Because there is no clear blueprint about how an athlete comes back from a torn ACL. Because we have no idea just how Collaros will respond when he has been cleared to play. Heck, we have no idea when he will return, as Kent Austin is not exactly the most talkative fella when it comes to such issues.
As mentioned above, Hamilton’s defence was decimated through free agency and injuries. All three levels of the defence were affected, from the defensive line (Justin Hickman and Eric Norwood), linebacker Taylor Reed and about a zillion players including all-star Craig Butler in the secondary have been lost.
Finally, Hamilton’s best weapon in close games, kicker Justin Medlock, is well above 80 per cent accurate and is now in Winnipeg.
Montreal Alouettes
O/U 7.5 (Last year: 6-12)
Kevin Glenn holds the key to the Als’ success this season (MontrealAlouettes.com)
Why the Montreal Alouettes will go over the 7.5 wins total:
You won’t go deep into the playoffs with Kevin Glenn but even at his age he can still crank out seven- to nine-win seasons. Montreal has better talent offensively than you would expect from a team that struggled last year to score more than 20 points.
The biggest change is the return of Duron Carter, who before trying to make it in the NFL had 1,939 yards and 12 touchdowns in two seasons with Montreal. Those numbers would have be even higher if the team had gotten consistent play from the quarterback position. Glenn will love playing with such a big target who can make the big play. (Had a 78 yard touchdown catch against Toronto last week).
The running game is in good hands with Tyrell Sutton as the lead back; our very own Jamie Nye has predicted a 1,400 yard season for Sutton.
The defence will see the return of the best name in the CFL, Bear Woods, who if you remember back in 2014 was the East Division nominee for most outstanding defensive player.
Why the Montreal Alouettes will not go over the 7.5 wins total:
Hate to go with the easy point but does anyone have any faith in Montreal’s quarterback position? Glenn is 37 and is better suited as the trusted backup versus the every day starter. Rakeem Cato had his moments, including an impressive debut against Calgary, but did regress as the year went on.
Only Winnipeg scored fewer points than the Alouettes did in 2015. Bigger picture I just don’t see how Montreal jumps over the other teams in the East. I expect Hamilton and Toronto to both hover around the 10-11 win level and while Ottawa should regress I don’t see any of those teams falling behind Montreal.
Ottawa REDBLACKS
O/U 7.5 (Last year: 12-6)
REDBLACKS off-season add Trevor Harris looks to throw during pre-season action (Johany Jutras/BlueBombers.com)
Why the Ottawa REDBLACKS will go over the 9.5 wins total:
Because they are immune from the single worst thing that can happen to a football team: the loss of their starting quarterback. If Henry Burris and his 5,000 yards of production miss any significant time, the team will simply hand the reigns to the guy who led the league in touchdown passes, Trevor Harris. That is an embarrassment of riches.
Evil media members like myself would love to find some sort of QB controversy between these two competitors about playing time and respective roles within the organization; unfortunately Burris and Harris are making that difficult as off the field the two players seem to be getting along. I mean just look at this quote from Harris about Burris: “The awesome thing about Henry and myself is I think we both realize it’s not about him, it’s not about me; it’s about the mission we’re on.”
More importantly, Ottawa’s 12-win season can’t be chalked up to luck or smoke and mirrors — the REDBLACKS led the league in some pretty impressive categories including net offence, fewest yards allowed, total sacks and interceptions. This is not one of those teams that falls into a great record by pulling out last second wins and being the beneficiary of every piece of luck going its way.
Why the Ottawa REDBLACKS will not go over the 9.5 wins total:
One word: regression. Why should we let all the baseball people monopolize that word? Ottawa went from a two-win team to a 12-win team; it kind of feels like this team is somewhere in the middle of those two records. Yes, the REDBLACKS led the league in sacks, but in the off-season they lost Justin Capicciotti (26 years old and had 23 sacks the last two years), Shawn Lemon, Jovon Johnson and Keith Shologan. Sorry but I don’t see them getting 62 sacks in 2016.
I also wonder who is going to run the ball after losing Jeremiah Johnson to the Lions and William Powell (who was damn impressive late in the year and in the playoffs) to injury. Finally, as pointed out by Dave Naylor, last season all five starting offensive lineman managed to stay healthy for the entire season. When does that ever happen in football? That stat really hammers home the idea that Ottawa is in line for a bit of a market correction in regards to wins.
Saskatchewan Roughriders
O/U 7.5 (Last year: 3-16)
The biggest question in Riderville surrounds the health of Darian Durant (The Canadian Press)
Why the Saskatchewan Roughriders will go over the 7.5 wins total:
Because the CFL coach whisperer has decided that trying to defend a Grey Cup championship isn’t enough of a challenge so why not try to turn around Saskatchewan? Jones is the team’s new coach, GM, vice-president of football operations and I’m fairly sure he cuts the grass on his off-days. This is the same man who turned a four-win Edmonton squad into a champion.
I love some of the Riders’ free agent acquisitions including OL Andrew Jones, WR Shamawd Chambers, LB Otha Foster and maybe the best acquisition of them all, Justin Capicciotti, the league’s best young pass rusher. This team got a lot better in the past six months and will see the return of Darian Durant.
Why the Saskatchewan Roughriders will not go over the 7.5 wins total:
Speaking of Durant … What can we really expect from him in 2016? The last time we saw him he ruptured his left Achilles tendon in Week 1 and no one even touched him. This wasn’t a truck load of linebackers falling on him, this was Durant simply throwing a pass. It is hard to expect Durant at 33 to stay fully healthy if it takes nothing more than a simple throwing motion to wipe out an entire season.
I expect Jones to work miracles but with a roster of 50 or so new players it is a lot to ask for total cohesion and chemistry with so many new faces. Speaking of chemistry, Durant will be working with a lot of new faces as many of his familiar targets like Weston Dressler and Chris Getzlaf (not to mention talented Ryan Smith) are no longer wearing the Green and White.
Finally, there will be a lot of work needed for an offensive line that allowed a league-worst 65 sacks last season. Oh and it should be remembered that they only won three games all last year!
Toronto Argonauts
O/U 10.5 (Last year: 10-8)
So far so good for Argos pivot Ricky Ray as he heads into 2016 (The Canadian Press)
Why the Toronto Argonauts will go over the 10.5 wins total:
Because Ricky Ray looks really super duper healthy. People I have spoken with have said Ray is making throws he hasn’t made in years as his shoulder is 100 per cent healthy. With an improved offensive line (Oh hi there used to sworn enemy of Toronto Josh Bourke) and an array of young weapons in Tori Gurley, Vidal Hazelton, Kevin Elliott and Diontae Spencer, Ray should be able to light up the league once again.
I love the veteran presence that Keon Raymond brings and of course the team is no longer in SkyDome! Unless you are a self-entitled TFC fan you have to be happy for this move. Teams often talk about feeding off the home crowd, well for the past decade there hasn’t exactly been much food on the table at SkyDome for the team. You can’t help but feel playing at BMO Field can only be a benefit for the players who will finally have a home worth playing for.
As for signings, I love the addition of former Ticats defensive linemen Justin Hickman and Bryan Hall, who can both bolster the pass rush (Hickman) and help swallow up multiple offensive lineman allowing linebackers to do their jobs (Hall).
Why the Toronto Argonauts will not go over the 10.5 wins total:
Ricky Ray has missed 29 of a possible 72 starts over the past four seasons. I don’t know too many metrics that point to football players being even more durable the older they get. Toronto didn’t exactly the end the year strong, losing three of its final four games and than bowing out to a Hamilton team that was playing its backup quarterback.
Just like in Hamilton, Toronto lost its dependable kicker in Swayze Waters, which makes winning close games that much harder. The team took another special teams hit with the loss of Chad Owens and no one expects dynamic but hard luck running back Andre Durie to remain healthy by the time Fall rolls around.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers
O/U 6.5 (Last year: 5-14)
Andrew Harris is just one of many new stars putting on Blue and Gold (The Canadian Press)
Why the Winnipeg Blue Bombers will go over the 6.5 wins total:
Because they went on a really fun shopping spree in the off-season, bringing in a bunch of shiny new toys for Mike O’Shea and Drew Willy to play with! Hey look, there’s Saskatchewan’s two best wideouts in Weston Dressler (it will be so weird to see him NOT in a Roughriders jersey) and Ryan Smith! Wait a minute, isn’t that one of the most productive backs in the CFL wearing a Bombers jersey? It sure is, say hello to Andrew Harris! Throw in some useful defensive linemen in Euclid Cummings and Keith Shologan and the best kicker east of Calgary in Justin Medlock and you have a front office focused on winning and winning now.
On top of the players the team got an infusion of smart with Paul LaPolice joining the coaching staff. He has one job: make Drew Willy better and try to ensure that Willy stays healthy. If LaPolice can do that Winnipeg will easily eclipse the lowly mark of 6.5 wins.
Why the Winnipeg Blue Bombers will not go over the 6.5 wins total:
Because there is a reason Winnipeg is projected to have the fewest wins according to Bodog. Mike O’Shea may now be the longest-serving coach in the West but he also happens to be one of the few coaches in the league not to have taken his team to the playoffs.
Willy is coming off of a right knee injury playing behind an offensive line that gave up 59 sacks last year.
The worst thing I can say about Winnipeg is the team has a slight whiff of desperation. Both GM Kyle Walters and O’Shea are in the final year of their contracts. Sometime when you see a team splurge on a lot of big familiar names it’s done more for the quick fix to try and save jobs. Just ask Bryan Colangelo when he brought in Rudy Gay for the Toronto Raptors.
Hey, I love a lot of the names that the Blue Bombers signed but what is often the case is when you want to truly fix the foundation you need many years of a slow rebuild rather than the flashy moves.
