Berg vs. Ferg: Will the crossover come into play?

Every week of the 2016 season, CFL.ca columnists Pat Steinberg and Marshall Ferguson will debate over one of the league’s most contentious storylines. In Week 13, we ask the question: will the crossover come into play in 2016?

Nine teams; six playoff spots. In the end, the crossover rule in the CFL is what typically allows the six best teams in the league to make the playoffs in any given season.

Eight teams have made the playoffs via the crossover since the rule’s inception in 1996, all from the West, while two have won their first-round playoff matchups and none have advanced further than the division final.

CROSSOVER TEAMS AND RESULTS

Only one time since 2012 has a team crossed over when the Lions headed East in 2014, but the threat for a repeat this year is strong. While the East Division struggles — only Ottawa at 5-4-1 is above .500 — the West is surging.

The Stamps have the top spot locked down so far with only one loss next to their name. The second-place Lions have won three in a row and two of their three losses have come to the first-place Stamps. The third-place Bombers have won six in a row and are emerging as a CFL powerhouse. The X-factor is Edmonton, who despite being 5-6 has one of the league’s top quarterbacks and was last year’s Grey Cup Champion.

The math is simple — all the fourth-place team in the West has to do is finish ahead (tie-breaker goes to the home division) of the third-place team in the East. Can the Eskimos, or whichever other team lands in fourth place in the West, finish ahead of just one of the Argos, Ticats or REDBLACKS? (Plus the Alouettes, who still aren’t out of the picture yet).

That’s the question at hand. The opportunity is there, but will there be a crossover in 2016? Steinberg and Ferguson debate in the latest Berg vs. Ferg.

BERG (3-5): PLAIN AND SIMPLE, EDMONTON ISN’T MISSING THE PLAYOFFS

Pat Steinberg, CFL.ca
@Fan960Steinberg

I think we’re set to see the CFL’s playoff crossover in action again in 2016. With no one showing any desire to grab the East Division by a stranglehold, the climate is ripe for someone to be picked off by a West Division foe. It sure does look like that team is going to be the Edmonton Eskimos, which could be very dangerous.

There’s one crucial question when it comes to this scenario: are the Eskimos better than two of Ottawa, Hamilton, Toronto, and Montreal? If the answer to that question is yes then we’re looking at a pretty good chance of a crossover. If the answer turns out to be no, then the 2016 post-season will go along as planned.

Fortunately for us crossover fans, the answer is yes. I’ve got the REDBLACKS and Ticats as East Division playoff teams, which leaves the Argos and Alouettes extremely vulnerable.

While I like Toronto’s acquisition of Drew Willy, I don’t think he’s going to transform his new team into a juggernaut. Despite some struggles this season, Ricky Ray gives the Argos their best chance to win, with or without Willy in the picture. While Toronto is a fairly balanced group, I’ll take Edmonton’s explosive offence and improving defensive game down the stretch.

Montreal’s situation isn’t that much different. The Als are still looking for consistent quarterback play and currently sit near the bottom of most offensive categories. Montreal definitely boasts a very capable defensive unit but they’re on the field too much. To make matters worse, the Alouettes are already looking up at Edmonton in the standings with the latter holding a two game edge. It would be surprising if the Esks didn’t finish on top of this battle come the end of the season.

The defending Grey Cup champs aren’t quite what they were in 2015, I think that’s fair to say. However, they’ve made some real strides defensively in recent weeks and happen to possess the CFL’s most prolific passing game. That in and of itself leads me to believe they’re going to be the fourth West Division playoff team. The fact they have proven performers like Mike Reilly, Adarius Bowman, Patrick Watkins, and JC Sherritt, who know how to win with things on the line, makes me feel even better about that assertion.

FERG (5-3): THE ARGOS HOLD THE KEY AND THEY HAVE MOMENTUM

Marshall Ferguson, CFL.ca
@TSN_Marsh

There will be no crossover from the West Division to the East division in 2016 because the CFL is a strange (in a good sense) and ever evolving league. Teams which look to be middling around .500 have the ability to string together wins at any given moment.

What matters most in this argument is which teams have a tough, West-infused schedule to close the season.

I believe at this point it is fair to assume Montreal will not be part of the party, however that could change with a win Friday in Hamilton. What that means is the ‘crossover question’ is a threat to only Ottawa, Hamilton and Toronto.

Hamilton has already helped out its Western foes enough this season with a 2-5 record, including two losses to both the Blue Bombers and Lions. As a result of the damage done, the Ticats play five of their last seven at home and play only three West Division opponents: Saskatchewan, Calgary and Edmonton. The Riders’ struggles leave them on the outside looking in while I believe Calgary will safely play in November in the West. Edmonton is the only viable crossover opportunist, so the Tiger-Cats just have to take car of business at home against the East to avoid being a part of the discussion.

Ottawa may actually have the biggest impact on whether or not we see a crossover this season with games remaining against Calgary, BC, Saskatchewan, and a back-to-back with Winnipeg. I believe the REDBLACKS’ always possible offensive fireworks will protect them from a crossover. Ottawa is 3-2 against the East currently with a home at home series against Hamilton to come shortly. If either team sweeps that series it could go a long way to determining if a crossover can happen. I don’t see it.

» Related: It’s time for Trevor Harris to sink or swim

Toronto is theoretically the Eastern team most in danger of facing a crossover bump from the playoffs. The Argos still have to play at Edmonton, at Calgary and at Winnipeg. That sounds like a daunting task for a traditionally poor Western travelling Argos team. However, the Argos have proven to be formidable on the road until recently and should gain a burst of adrenaline from the Drew Willy trade.

The fact remains that Toronto is hosting the Grey Cup this November and the Argos will do anything to be there. Their win against Hamilton Sunday night could add significant momentum against any opponent. As a result, I don’t see them being a threat to be replaced by Winnipeg, Edmonton or BC.

DON’T SIT ON THE FENCE!

While both sides are pretty convincing, someone’s got to take it. Whose argument convinced you the most?

You can vote for this week’s winner both on CFL.ca and Twitter. Meanwhile, continue the conversation by tweeting @Fan960Steinberg and @TSN_Marsh. While the discussion never ends, polls close on Sunday night at 11:59 p.m ET.

The winner will be revealed in the following week’s Berg vs. Ferg.