CFL Simulation: Are the Lions Grey Cup bound?

TORONTO — The BC Lions could be on the way to their first Grey Cup appearance since 2011, according to CFL Simulation.

The Lions’ probability of making it to the final contest in November increased from 7.47% to 10.18% this week. Despite losing back-to-back contests against their West Division rival Blue Bombers, the Leos hold a better chance at appearing in the 104th Grey Cup than Winnipeg.

Winnipeg’s chances of making it to the final showdown dropped this week from 9.49% to 8.09% because of its increased likelihood of finishing second in the West Division. If the Bombers finish second, they will follow a more difficult path to the Grey Cup by having to play against West teams, rather than if they finished fourth and earned the crossover into the East.

Although, not all hope is lost for Bomber fans, as the club’s chances of winning the Grey Cup rose from 2.89% to 4.79% this week.

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After the REDBLACKS one-point victory over the Tiger-Cats last week, Ottawa’s chances of finishing first in the East Division climbed from 48.86% to 88.64%. As a result of that same contest, the Tiger-Cats’ chances of finishing in the top spot in the division fell from 51.10% to 11.36%.

The Tabbies, however, still hold a 14.91% at making it to its third Grey Cup final in four years.

This week, the most probable Grey Cup final will be a meeting between the REDBLACKS and Stampeders at 41.45% – both teams are currently sitting in first place in their respective divisions. An all-Alberta final between Edmonton and Calgary is the second most likely matchup at 23.06%, rising from 22.75% last week.

Remember, this is only a simulation. There’s a reason they play – games aren’t won on paper.

Here is a look at how the teams stack up:

The model considers the following:

•             Each team’s current win-loss record.
•             Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
•             Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
•             Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
•             Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule.  The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins.  For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.

For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the Western Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.