August 8, 2023

Fantasy Projections: How many points will Mizzell score?

Jason Halstead/CFL.ca

Those who went against conventional wisdom and stacked Blue Bombers players were the biggest winners in Week 9 CFL fantasy football as five players and the Winnipeg defence each scored at least 10 fantasy points.

Beyond that outburst, fantasy production failed to match up with most of our projections.
Week 10 has arrived, so let’s keep it moving and learn from our mistakes.

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Quarterbacks

1) Zach Collaros, Winnipeg, $15,000 Salary (19.7 Projected Fantasy Points): The two-time reigning MOP is holding a HOT hand the past four weeks, scoring at least 17 fantasy points with two games of at least 20 FP in the same span. Facing the Elks’ and their struggling defence will keep that streak alive.

2) Cody Fajardo, Montreal, $13,500 Salary (16.3): Think he’s not going to be motivated to face his old Roughriders teammates? He has scored double digits in all but one game this season yet we’re still waiting for Fajardo to deliver a monster outing. Don’t be shocked if it comes this weekend.

3) Vernon Adams Jr., BC, $13,500 Salary (14.6): The Stampeders secondary can be rough on opposing passers, but we’re going with the assumption that Adams returns to the lineup and approaches his season-best 25.5 FP he achieved in Week 1 against the same Calgary defence.

4) Mason Fine, Saskatchewan, $8,000 Salary (11.8): Fine comes off a season-best 18.5 FP outing against the REDBLACKS, and while the Alouettes lead the CFL in opponents’ pass efficiency, Fine’s growing confidence makes him a low key steal this week with the fleet of talented receivers he has to throw to.

Running Backs

1) Brady Oliveira, Winnipeg, $14,500 Salary (16.3): Oliveira scored 14 fantasy points the previous meeting against the Elks, and there’s no reason not to think he can’t exceed that total against the league’s worst run defence.

2) AJ Ouellette, Toronto, $12,300 Salary (11.7): Expect Ouellette to break out of his two-game fantasy skid with a solid effort against Calgary’s seventh-ranked run defence. He’ll see more than the eight carries he’s averaged the past two games.

3) Dedrick Mills, Calgary, $13,000 Salary (13.9): Don’t select Mills with hopes of him getting another 31 touches from scrimmage. Do, however, add him for the fact he’s going to remain the focal point of the Stampeders offence. He’ll need to be more involved in the passing game considering BC is second in run defence.

4) William Stanback, Montreal $11,000 Salary (10.6): He’s delivered at least 10.6 fantasy points in each of the past three games. The production would be much higher if he and the Alouettes can improve upon the league-low 11 offensive majors they’ve produced thus far.

5) Taquan Mizzell, BC, $11,500 Salary (12.2): The RB1 role in Vancouver belongs again to Mizzell, whose numbers would be higher if the Lions offence begins to perform at the level their talent suggests they should be.

Receivers

 

1) Dalton Schoen, Winnipeg, $14,700 Salary (16.5): Schoen finally gave fantasy users the outburst they’d been longing for with 30.7 FP in Week 9. The league leader in depth yards (1,025) will make effective use of his deep routes against an Elks defence allowing 9.6 yards per pass.

2) Shawn Bane Jr., Saskatchewan, $14,200 Salary (15.8): Over the past two games, Bane has scored 51.2 fantasy points and has scored at least 17.4 FP in three straight games. Fantasy users should continue latching on to Bane amidst his breakout season.

3) Kenny Lawler, Winnipeg, $12,500 Salary (17.3): In his first two games of the season, Lawler caught 14 of his 17 targets for 293 yards and a touchdown, translating those numbers into 49.3 fantasy points. That’s frightening production for opposing defenders to contend with and fantasy users to enjoy.

4) Austin Mack, Montreal, $10,700 Salary (15.1): Mack bounced back from a season-low 6.7 FP in Week 8 with 17.6 FP in Week 9. We get the sense Mack will exceed his projection in what could become a slugfest against the Roughriders.

5) Tevin Jones, Saskatchewan, $13,900 Salary (14.2): Week 9 was Jones’ “oops” game, so cut him some slack considering it was the first time this season he failed to score in double digits. Expect a solid rebound for Jones, who should clear his projected total with ease.

6) Alexander Hollins, BC, $13,000 Salary (10.7): Like the rest of the Lions offence, Week 9 was miserable for Hollins, who had averaged 14.5 fantasy points the previous two games. The potential return of Vernon Adams to the starting lineup will enhance his potential.

7) Reggie Begelton, Calgary, $13,000 Salary (14.4): Let’s give him a pass for his 6.5 FP total in Week 9 since the Stamps offence was all about Dedrick Mills. He’s going to approach double digit targets since Calgary could be in catch up mode at BC on Saturday evening.

8) Nic Demski, Winnipeg, $13,000 Salary (15.7): The league’s most efficient receiver continues to be an efficient fantasy producer, having scored at least 19.3 FP in four straight games.

9) Justin Hardy, Ottawa, $10,000 Salary (13.0): Last week’s total of 4.5 fantasy points snapped a four-game run of at least 11.5 FP for Hardy, who would benefit greatly if REDBLACKS pivot Dustin Crum ($8,500) stretches the defence more often with his arm.

10) Dominique Rhymes, BC, $13,000 Salary (13.0): Yes, it feels strange to rank Rhymes this low. However, he’s failed to score double digit fantasy points in each of his last three games while also failing to score a major since Week 4.

11) Tre Odoms-Dukes, Calgary, $11,900 Salary (13.6): He’s quietly scored a combined 38.8 fantasy points the past two games and continues to be a solid compliment to Reggie Begelton.

12) Cam Phillips, Toronto, $9,700 Salary (9.4): Someone must be the featured receiver in Toronto, right? Let’s try Phillips this week since the Argonauts will be able to get solid passing numbers against the REDBLACKS and their league-worst pass defence.

Defences

1) Toronto, $9,800 Salary (14.8): Ottawa has committed 23 turnovers and must face an Argos defence that leads the league with 14 interceptions. There’s strong value here.

2) Winnipeg, $11,000 Salary (13.9): The Bombers have scored at least 10 FP in three of their last five. Getting an Elks team that sports an -8 turnover ratio should result in great production on Thursday night.

3) BC, $9,700 Salary (14.7): Forget what happened to the Lions last week. They’ll be closer to their usual form against the Stampeders.

4) Montreal, $8,200 Salary (9.6): A bit of a deep dive here since the Als have scored double digits just three times this season. If they can get their pass rush generated against the Roughriders, there’s a chance for a fourth time.

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