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August 22, 2017

Gaining Ground: Does the 3 RB strategy pay off?

Johany Jutras/CFL.ca

TORONTO — In a league where teams throw the football roughly twice every three plays (69 per cent as of Week 10), it’s understood why the CFL is known as a ‘passing league’.

But while many fantasy players have leaned on the strategy of deploying three receivers (one in the flex spot), the results thus far tell us that a three RB system could be more conducive to success.

Supply and demand led to high-priced running backs early in the CFL season but the production at the position tells us it’s crucial to the makeup of your fantasy team.

Let’s look at the top 10 fantasy producers — non-quarterbacks — so far this season:

TOP 10 CFL FANTASY: NON-QB

NAME POSITION TEAM GAMES PTS AVG CURRENT VALUE
Greg Ellingson WR OTT 9 128.4 14.3 $6,732
Jeremiah Johnson RB BC 9 122.0 13.6 $6,532
Andrew Harris RB WPG 8 119.4 14.9 $8,226
S.J. Green WR TOR 9 115.0 12.8 $5,558
Jerome Messam RB CGY 8 109.2 13.7 $7,745
Chris Rainey RB BC 9 99.5 11.1 $6,575
Brad Sinopoli WR OTT 9 88.7 9.9 $4,505
Darvin Adams WR WPG 8 86.3 10.8 $6,174
Ryan Lankford WR WPG 8 82.8 10.35 $4,144
Vidal Hazelton WR EDM 8 82.0 10.25 $5,162

 

Four of the top six-ranked non-QBs are running backs, meaning fantasy players have gotten plenty of big points from the likes of Andrew Harris, Jerome Messam and Jeremiah Johnson this season.

The disadvantage for running backs is their raised floor: You won’t spend less than $4,000 on a starting running back as LaDarius Perkins ($4,500), Brandon Rutley ($4,806) and William Powell ($5,164) are the cheapest running backs potentially starting in Week 10 (Rutley may or may not get the ball for the Als).

Still, a closer look at the production among this week’s starting tailbacks begs for a closer look at the RB position on your fantasy team:

WEEK 10 PROJECTED STARTING RB

NAME TEAM GAMES PTS AVG CURRENT VALUE
Jeremiah Johnson BC 9 122.0 13.6 $6,532
Andrew Harris WPG 8 119.4 14.9 $8,226
Jerome Messam CGY 8 109.2 13.7 $7,745
Chris Rainey BC 9 99.5 11.1 $6,575
Cameron Marshall SSK 7 79.5 11.4 $5,659
William Powell OTT 6 69.8 11.6 $5,164
Tyrell Sutton MTL 6 65.7 11.0 $6,054
Brandon Whitaker TOR 6 41.8 7.0 $4,843
LaDarius Perkins EDM 4 39.9 10.0 $4,500
C.J. Gable HAM 5 27.3 5.5 $3,873

 

Of this week’s eight projected starters (not including returners like Chris Rainey or the inactive C.J. Gable and assuming Tyrell Sutton starts for the Als), seven have averaged 10 or more points. That leaves Brandon Whitaker as the only projected starting running back this week averaging single-digit points.

What can we take from this? Mainly, running backs are a safe and reliable source of production for your fantasy team — without taking away possible upside (for instance, Andrew Harris dropped 20-plus last week without even scoring a touchdown).

The last set of numbers we’ll look at involves the biggest fantasy performances of the 2017 season.

TOP NON-QB PERFORMANCES OF 2017

NAME POSITION TEAM WEEK PTS
Diontae Spencer WR OTT 2 32.5
Nick Moore WR BC 4 28.0
Jerome Messam RB CGY 6 27.4
S.J. Green WR TOR 3 27.0
Weston Dressler WR WPG 2 26.6
S.J. Green WR TOR 9 26.5
Duron Carter WR SSK 6 26.5
Marken Michel WR CGY 6 25.7
Chris Rainey RB BC 5 25.6
Andrew Harris RB WPG 6 25.4

 

It makes sense that more receivers have enjoyed bigger performances in 2017 considering the higher volume of pass-catchers available. Still, three of the top 10 performances of the season (not including the QBs) belong to running backs. Meanwhile, 15 receivers have had 20-plus point games while eight running backs have hit the 20-point mark.

The numbers say that where economically feasible, lining up three running backs in CFL Fantasy can provide a mix of consistency and upside for your weekly roster.