Cauz: What Derek Taylor’s number-crunching told us about 2017

I am not saying that Derek Taylor from TSN pours over more game film than anyone else connected with the CFL but I have yet to meet that person who does. If you want to know who was the third best right guard in the game Derek has charts for that. By the way if you noticed that I was specific by saying “right guard” instead of just “guard” well that was done on purpose. Derek has a separate list for left guards. I wish for his ability to have a life beyond football I was making this up, but I’m not.

What I appreciate most about his video series, ‘The Details with Derek Taylor’ is he takes complicated statistics and transforms them into interesting narratives about what exactly is it you are watching every week during the season.

So just like last year, I sat down with Derek to get his thoughts on what his numbers told him about this past season that we may have missed plus we tackle some off-season issues and he makes one bold prediction for the 2018 season.

Here are 16 of his thoughts/takes from an hour long interview we did on a snowy day in mid-December:

1. The DeVier Posey 100-yard Grey Cup touchdown catch is even crazier than you thought.

The Argonauts had the shortest passing attack in the league and Ricky Ray didn’t throw a pass that traveled more than 45 yards through the air all season. So backed up in his own end zone, in the snow, Ray let rip with about a 30-yard pass to Posey who beat Tommie Campbell, the best boundary corner in 2017 according to Taylor’s numbers. It is astounding to think that play worked when you read back all the forces working against Ray and Posey on that game turning touchdown.

2. This year’s Shakir Bell Award for most elusive player goes to …. Andrew Harris!

No player broke more tackles than the Winnipeg Blue Bombers running back. Derek believes that Harris was actually more useful as a receiver than as a running back and was probably the second best player in the West behind only Mike Reilly.

3. Montreal made the right choice acquiring Chris Williams.

While many people will question Montreal going after the 30-year-old receiver who struggled with injuries and just never seemed to fit into the B.C. Lions passing attack, Derek feels there is no reason “he can’t be a killer again” in Montreal. With Ernest Jackson, BJ Cunningham and Sam Giguere the Alouettes has the making of a great passing attack.

4. Speaking of receivers, Brandon Banks may have been 13th in receiving yards but the guy is a Top-5 wideout.

Derek was so shocked about his second half turn around that at one point he had Banks ranked ahead of Brandon Zylstra before quickly realizing his mistake. The bigger picture is that Coach Junes Jones really did a hell of job transforming Banks into a legitimate All-Star at receiver.

5. The Kenny Shaw Award for most receptions without breaking one tackle goes to multiple winners.

Yes this is a dubious “award” but there are is some surprising talent on this list. Rob Bagg, Tiquan Underwood and Nick Moore were three of the most notable players. These three combined for 106 receptions without getting free from a defender.

6. The player who produced the highest QB rating when targeted was Declan Cross.

Just in case this award seems confusing let me quickly explain. One way of measuring a receiver’s effectiveness is by isolating what the quarterback’s passer rating is whenever they target that one receiver. The higher the rating the better that receiver did in helping his quarterback succeed. In this case it was the Argonaut’s fullback who produced a 144 QB rating whenever Ricky Ray threw to him.

7. Your next star at receiver is …

If you are only going to read one entry read this one as Derek is on a roll! Two years ago he predicted it would be Naaman Roosevelt who was coming off a 488 yard 2015 season. Roosevelt is currently on a two year streak of going over the 1,000-yard barrier. Last year it was Brandon Zylstra who went from the new guy on Edmonton’s roster to leading the whole league in receiving yards!

So without further ado this year’s winner is …. Bryant Mitchell from the Edmonton Eskimos! Mitchell was second with a 131.5 passer rating when targeted as he caught 32 out of a total of 40 balls thrown his way and didn’t drop one. His big issue was playing time as the Eskimos are loaded with talent at this position. But with Free Agency and the allure of the NFL (We hardly knew thee Zylstra!) Mitchell should see more time as a starter next year. Expect Mitchell’s yardage total of 482 to take a massive leap in 2018.

8. Jeremiah Masoli is confusing.

How do you explain Hamilton’s offence getting better with a quarterback who threw an impressive 15 touchdowns compared to five interceptions yet he was also one of the league’s least accurate passers?

9. James Franklin is a good fit for the Argonauts …. Probably.

Derek warns that the sample size on Franklin is limited and there is the great unknown of how does he handle a full season of getting hit week in and week out. As long as he doesn’t end up on a NFL roster Franklin has the chance of eventually being a star on a team stocked with weapons and a fearsome defence.

10. Ricky Ray is a living breathing contradiction.

He’s nearly 40, he was sacked more than any other quarterback yet he was healthy right to the end of the year. As mentioned before no quarterback threw short more than Ray yet when he did challenge defences Ray was the second most accurate deep ball passer in the league. Oh the quarterback with the best rating on deep balls … of course it had to be Jeremiah Masoli. (See Note 8)

11. Bo Levi Mitchell is a chess master on the field.

All right you may already know this but here is more proof. Most quarterbacks avoid the middle of the field due to the high safety and five man secondaries that litter the CFL. But not Mitchell, he likes to test pass defences by throwing in that danger zone. Mitchell will make those throws to move safeties over, to set them up for big plays later on in a game.

12. Don’t give up on Zach Collaros

Derek was quick to remind that Collaros’ 2015 season was on a “near historic” level before injuries cut his season short in August. The issue was Collaros was pass protection, or lack thereof. Zack was pressured on 34% of his passes, a league high, meaning he was rarely given an opportunity to feel comfortable in the pocket. With better play at tackle Collaros could be an All-Star again.

13. Brandon Bridge may be further away from being a star than we all hope

Derek summed it up best saying that “We all want to be on the Bridge train” but he doesn’t see the Roughriders quarterback as being anything more than a “Top-6” passer — at least not yet. Brandon has yet to display the accuracy needed to be a consistent winner according to Taylor. However he is excellent at making throws from difficult angles finding passing windows that are impossible to imagine as linebackers and defensive ends come crashing all around. However his great improvisational ability also gets him into trouble, such as two big sacks by Shawn Lemon in the Eastern Final.

14. Don’t let the numbers fool you, Willie Jefferson is the CFL’s best pass rusher

Yes there were six players who finished the year with more sacks but no player had more quarterback pressures (49) than Jefferson. But what makes Jefferson so special goes beyond his individual numbers but rather how he is employed within the team’s defensive concept. No team blitzed less that Chris Jones’ squad did in 2017. In fact on two occasions Saskatchewan did not blitz once! I didn’t even know that was a thing. So when you look at Jefferson’s numbers just remember that he did it as part of a three man rush for the majority of the season meaning more double teams from offensive lines and fewer chances of getting a free pass to the quarterback.

15. Behind every great quarterback there’s a great offensive line …. Oh and the reverse is also true.

It’s been brought up a couple times in this piece but the one constant throughout our conversation is just how important line play is to the success of any quarterback. Matt Nichols had a great season in no small part due to he was only pressured on 16% of his passes. Meanwhile in B.C. Jonathan Jennings felt pressure on 31% of his snaps. Of course this statistic only tells a part of the story but it is an important one. Nichols has improved every year as a starter and deserves a ton of credit for the Bombers record but just remember his growth did coincide with the teaming up of Stanley Bryant, Travis Bond and Jermarcus Hardrick in 2016. As for the Lions the trading of Jovan Olafioye hurt their overall passing attack as only Cody Husband (Taylor raved about him) had a good season protecting Jennings and Travis Lulay.

16. Your 2018 MOP will be James Wilder Jr.

The league leader in yards after contact James averaged a Jon Cornish like 7.1 yards per rush and he led all running backs averaging eight yards per touch. His two longest touchdown runs of 86 and 75 yards were two of the longest we’ve seen this past decade and Taylor described them as being on a “Kory Sheets level”. So yes Derek is a CFL nerd with that Sheets reference and the Argonauts are lucky to have him in their backfield.

If you want to listen to his entire episode you can go to the ‘Macko and Cauz’ Podcast on iTunes. Now I know this may seem as a shameless plug (it kinda is) but for the hardcore CFL fan it is a great listen as Derek is just so passionate about this game and his knowledge is just ridiculous I appreciate him giving his time for this fun piece.