Mark Masters
CFL.ca
One of the favourite things for fans to do during Grey Cup week is try and predict how the big game will play out. Some would say this is a foolhardy venture considering how unpredictable this league can be. I suggest it’s a lot of fun.
The following is a list of questions about the 97th Grey Cup game, along with some bold predictions.
In truth, when it comes to this year’s championship game there is only one safe bet: the Saskatchewan Roughriders fans will make their presence heard.
As for everything else? Your guess is as good as mine.
Feel free to post your answers to these questions in the comments section on the right.
What are the odds a Canadian is named the game’s most outstanding player
During the last decade the Grey Cup MVP has been a quarterback seven times and neither quarterback playing in the game this year is Canadian.
The main Canadian contenders have to be receivers Rob Bagg, Ben Cahoon, Andy Fantuz and Chris Getzlaf.
If Montreal wins the game and Calvillo plays well you got to think he’ll get the MVP award.
It gets more interesting if Saskatchewan wins. If one of the team’s exciting Canadian receivers has a big game there’s a chance that he and not Darian Durant will get MVP honours.
Durant has been good, but will likely not put up gaudy numbers against a strong Montreal defence. That opens the door for a receiver to win.
And then there’s always the possibility the game will be a defensive struggle and a dark-horse candidate emerges. But the chances of that are slim.
There’s one intangible to take into account. With the debate surrounding the number of Canadians guaranteed starting jobs in the league swirling, there may be a subconscious motivation for voters to give a Canadian, as long as he plays fairly well, the Grey Cup MVP award.
PICK: I’m going with 20 per cent. It’s possible, perhaps more likely than ever before, but the smart money will be on a quarterback earning the top prize.
Who is more important to his team: Anthony Calvillo or Darian Durant?
The easiest way to look at this is by determining which team is in more trouble if their quarterback starts poorly. If Calvillo gets off to a wonky start the Alouettes may begin doubting themselves. They may start to fear another championship chance is about to go by the wayside.
If Durant struggles the Roughriders will not panic. They have been through a lot this season and seen their pivot survive some rough patches and bounce back.
Both teams have enough talent at the receiver position to bail out their quarterback if he’s a little off. So that’s a wash.
It is hard to envision a scenario where the Alouettes win the Grey Cup if Calvillo has an off day.
PICK: It’ll be hard for either team to win without a good performance from their signal caller; however, Calvillo is more important to the Alouettes’ hopes in terms of the mental side of the game.
OVER / UNDER 100 yards rushing for Avon Cobourne
The only way Cobourne gets to 100 yards is if he breaks loose for a big play (20+ yards) or two. Both defences will be focused on stopping the passing game so the opportunity will be there for a couple big runs if the right play is called at the right time.
During the regular season the Roughriders ranked seventh in average rushing yards allowed per game (123.8). That trend continued in the playoffs as the Roughriders allowed 123 yards rushing to the Stampeders last week.
PICK: Cobourne went over 100 yards both times he faced Saskatchewan this season. There’s enough statistical evidence to suggest he’ll do it again. I’m going over.
Which Saskatchewan receiver will have the biggest impact: Bagg, Fantuz or Getzlaf?
All three scored a touchdown last week, but it was Fantuz who led the charge with five catches for 89 yards. Of the three guys he is most likely to get special attention from the Montreal defence and the Alouettes have already shown they can slow him down. Fantuz had no catches at Montreal during a loss in August.
Bagg was second in team receiving yards (73) during the West Final. Getzlaf, meanwhile, had three catches for only 21 yards.
PICK: You get a sense Montreal may look to shutdown Fantuz, but even with the special attention, you got to go with the Western product. The guy is a big-game performer.
OVER / UNDER – 4.5 appearances during the Grey Cup broadcast by Gainer the Gopher
Rider Nation will be out in full force so there will be plenty of options for TSN in terms of showing reaction shots of Saskatchewan fans either in celebration or despair.
However, Gainer is the poster boy for the Green Gang. His influence was on full display earlier this week when he was invited to the floor of the Saskatchewan provincial assembly to lead elected officials in cheers.
PICK: I’m going over. Gainer is a beloved figure and I’m sure he’ll have some crazy antics planned, which will get him on the tube at least five times.
OVER / UNDER – 0.5 pieces of hardware for the Makowsky family in the next three months
Gene Makowsky, an offensive lineman with the Saskatchewan Roughriders, is not the only athlete in his family. His cousin, Lucas, is a long track speed skater, who is looking to capture Olympic glory in Vancouver during February’s Winter Games.
The Alouettes are favoured in the Grey Cup and Lucas will enter the Olympics as an underdog as well, although the Regina native claimed his first individual World Cup medal at event last week in Norway.
PICK: I’m going over. At least one of the Makowsky men will come through if not both. Lucas is hitting his stride at the right time and Gene is playing for a team that has a lot of positive mojo right now.
Who should the fans of the other six CFL teams cheer for?
At first blush this is no contest. The Roughriders are an attractive bandwagon for the fans of CFL teams who didn’t make it to Calgary this year.
The Roughriders play in the CFL’s smallest market and enter Sunday’s game as the clear underdogs. They have earned a reputation as a plucky team, one that will never quit in the face of long odds.
Meanwhile, Montreal, at 16-3, has basically frustrated the fans of every other team in the league this year. They cruised through the regular season facing little adversity. It would be easy to cheer against them.
But there is a case to be made for the Alouettes. Calvillo, for starters, seems to be an all-around decent guy. He has rebounded from some tough personal circumstances (his wife’s cancer scare) to become the league’s most outstanding player.
Another reason to cheer for Montreal is the fact that they do things the right way. General manager Jim Popp has constantly put together strong teams and does so by ensuring he’s deep at every position. He drafts well and has good Canadian talent.
Sure the Alouettes are good, but it’s not because they’re buying a championship, it’s because they have a well-run organization.
Plus, it’s not like Saskatchewan needs any more fan support, their legion of devoted followers will give them more than enough backing.
PICK: Whatever happens on Sunday the CFL will have a worthy champion in 2009. If Montreal wins the rest of the league should applaud, but the lure of the underdog
is too great. Neutral fans should cheer for Saskatchewan.
What are the odds that this Grey Cup game is remembered as one of the best ever?
It seems in this day and age that we are way too eager to declare a game or player the greatest of all-time. What makes a great Grey Cup game? There’s no set recipe, but you would have to say the game needs to be close, well played on both offence and defence and include a nail-biting ending.
There is a chance the game could be a blowout, especially if Montreal starts strong, but I’ll predict Saskatchewan will keep it close and ensure a competitive game into the fourth quarter. And, if that happens, there’s a chance we’ll be talking about this game for a long time.
PICK: I’ll peg the likelihood of this being among the best Grey Cup games ever at 25 per cent. All the elements are there for an amazing contest, but it takes something special for it all to come together on one night.
