November 15, 2016

CFL Insights: Against all odds

Adam Gagnon/CFL.ca

TORONTO — The CFL crossover rule has come into effect nine out of 21 seasons (43 per cent of the time) since its inception in 1996.

Only three times in 11 matchups (27 per cent) has the crossover team won the football game.

Zero times (zero per cent) has a team crossing over made it all the way to the Grey Cup.

The Edmonton Eskimos are the ninth team to make the playoffs via the crossover and will play in the Western Final on Sunday against the Ottawa REDBLACKS. A loss and they’ll just be another statistic; a win and they’ll make history:

 

CROSSOVER_1000x1000

 

Since the crossover rule came into effect, nine teams, all from the West, have made the playoffs by crossing over.

But while the West Division has evidently held the edge over the East since that time, the advantage for teams in the East in the month of November has been well-defined.

The Eskimos are the ninth team to cross over but of the first eight, two have made it past the Eastern Semi-Final and none have made it any further.

Crossover teams have played in 11 games (including Edmonton’s win over Hamilton last weekend) and gone 3-8 all-time.

The Lions lead the way with the most appearances with four, going 1-4 over that span, while the Riders have lost both times they’ve played in the Eastern Semi-Final.

Edmonton is actually now .500 in the three years it’s qualified for the playoffs via the crossover, winning twice and losing twice. Sunday will mark the second time the Esks have played in an Eastern Final.

CROSSOVER TEAMS AND RESULTS

YEAR CROSSOVER TEAM HOME TEAM RESULT
2018 BC Lions Hamilton Tiger-Cats L 48-8
2017 Saskatchewan Roughriders Ottawa REDBLACKS; Toronto Argonauts W 31-20; L 25-21
2016 Edmonton Eskimos Hamilton Tiger-Cats; Ottawa REDBLACKS W 24-21; L 35-23
2014 BC Lions Montreal Alouettes L 50-17
2012 Edmonton Eskimos Toronto Argonauts L 42-26
2009 BC Lions Hamilton Tiger-Cats; Montreal Alouettes W 34-27 (OT); L 56-18
2008 Edmonton Eskimos Winnipeg Blue Bombers; Montreal Alouettes W 29-21; L 36-26
2005 Saskatchewan Roughriders Montreal Alouettes L 30-14
2003 BC Lions Toronto Argonauts L 28-7
2002 Saskatchewan Roughriders Toronto Argonauts L 24-14
1997 BC Lions Montreal Alouettes L 45-35

 

The most telling statistic for Eskimos fans hoping their team can buck the trend this weekend: The two teams that have made it as far as the Eastern Final wound up losing by a combined score of 92-44 (BC losing 56-18 to Montreal in 2009 and Edmonton falling 36-26 to Montreal in 2008).

Then of course there’s the most definitive stat – the zero per cent. The number that screams at us.

The 10-8 Eskimos had a better record than the 8-9-1 REDBLACKS and are, by some, considered the favourite on Sunday.

Never say never, but history says the odds are against the Edmonton Eskimos and an all-West Grey Cup.

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