Peter McCabe/CFL.ca
TORONTO — After a tight race through the first three months of the season, we’re starting to see some separation in the East Division.
The fight for first may still come right down to the wire, but for now, the Argos and REDBLACKS have separated themselves from the rest of the pack with pivotal Week 13 victories. The East Division’s top two teams have a 97.56 per cent chance and a 96.81 per cent chance of making the playoffs respectively.
Montreal and Hamilton, meanwhile, have fallen behind. The Ticats failed to capitalize on their mini two-game winning streak, watching their playoff odds fall from 11.5 per cent 4.62 per cent following a loss to the Brandon Bridge-led Riders. The Als, on the other hand, couldn’t capitalize on the REDBLACKS’ injury problems at quarterback in a defeat at Percival Molson Stadium.
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Other takeaways: Despite currently residing in a playoff spot, the Eskimos now have the worst post-season odds in the West after losing their fifth straight contest. Also, the probability of an all-West Grey Cup has dropped as a Calgary-Saskatchewan matchup goes from third-likeliest (7.75%) to fifth-likeliest (4.78%).
We dive head first into the numbers below:
Here is a look at how the teams stack up:
Odds to Make Playoffs |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | > 99.99% |
| Blue Bombers | 99.20% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 97.56% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 96.81% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 84.54% |
| BC Lions | 59.72% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 56.54% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 4.62% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 1.02% |
Odds to Win East |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | 56.72% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 42.54% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 0.67% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 0.05% |
Odds to Win West |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 94.31% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 5.63% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 0.05% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 0.01% |
| BC Lions | < 0.01% |
Odds to Appear in 105th Grey Cup |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 79.84% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 46.57% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 40.53% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 15.74% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 9.84% |
| BC Lions | 4.50% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 2.26% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 0.67% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 0.05% |
Odds to Win 105th Grey Cup |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 67.34% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 11.07% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 8.94% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 6.33% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 4.68% |
| BC Lions | 1.19% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 0.41% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 0.04% |
| Montreal Alouettes | < 0.01% |
Most Likely 105th Grey Cup Matchups |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary-Ottawa | 37.25% |
| Calgary-Toronto | 32.28% |
| Winnipeg-Ottawa | 6.99% |
| Winnipeg-Toronto | 6.12% |
| Calgary-Saskatchewan | 4.78% |
The model considers the following:
• Each team’s current win-loss record.
• Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
• Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
• Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
• Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule. The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins. For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.
For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the Western Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
