Buyer Beware: Returners unlock boom-or-bust potential

TORONTO — Ah, the kickoff return… one of football’s most exciting plays. Yet when it comes to fantasy, selecting a returner for your roster can be a risky proposition.

Players like Martese Jackson, Diontae Spencer and Roy Finch have dominated the fantasy discussion this season, but while their names appear often on high-scoring rosters, they don’t always yield happy returns.

Return yards and especially touchdowns can be a serious boon for your fantasy team, but at the same time, kick-returners are defined by their boom-or-bust potential.

On the flip side, a deeper dive tells us that if you’re willing to take the risk, there’s value to be had:

Notable Returners in 2017

Consider Roy Finch, who commands a $5,160 price tag at the running back position but is used primarily as a returner. Finch has amassed only 24.7 points either catching or running the football compared to 88.04 points via the return (second among all returners), giving him a total of 114.7 points.

Interestingly, his Fantasy Points this season rank him 24th among everyone in the field, 15th among non-quarterbacks and seventh among running backs. Compare that to his salary and you’ll be seeing dollar signs. Heading into Week 16 (note that Finch is on a bye), Finch has the 44th-highest salary among everyone, the 32nd among non-quarterbacks and, finally, the 14th-highest salary among running backs.

If you’re getting Roy Finch — or any other returner, for that matter — on one of his good days, you’re getting tremendous value there. The problem is the ‘if’.

Let’s have a look at Finch’s game log this season:

Half of Finch’s 12 games have seen him record 7.3 points or fewer. The floor, meanwhile, is 5.2, his total from last week’s win over the Montreal Alouettes.

Finch’s contributions on offence elevate his floor similar to Diontae Spencer and Chris Rainey, while the difference from week to week is even more profound for other returners like Martese Jackson and Stefan Logan, who contribute little on offence.

Martese Jackson is only 13.2 points shy of Roy Finch this season in total fantasy points. But because Jackson’s points have come almost exclusively on returns, you’ll notice a number of peaks and valleys in his game log:

A third of Jackson’s dozen games this season have produced fewer than four Fantasy Points each, while three games have put him in the 15.9-plus plateau — including a season-high 19.5 against the Bombers in Week 4.

Two games ranging between nine and 10 points have put Jackson on middle ground, but other than that, it’s been rags or riches for the 25-year-old return man.

What does all of this tell us about picking returners in fantasy? Well, it depends on who you’re looking at. No one has bigger boom-or-bust potential than Martese Jackson or Stefan Logan, who only handle returns. Meanwhile, Roy Finch, Chris Rainey and Diontae Spencer have all contributed offensive points in varying degrees, also seemingly out-performing their dollar value.

The kick return touchdowns are almost impossible to predict, making the returners hard to trust on a weekly basis. But if you’re feeling lucky and can play your cards right, the payout can be big.

Set your lineup today in TSN CFL Fantasy Football.