Matt Smith/CFL.ca
The BC Lions, Edmonton Eskimos and Saskatchewan Roughriders are in a three-horse race for the final two playoff spots as the crossover is almost a certainty for the CFL Playoffs.
The debate going around has been which would be the better spot to land for these teams.
Should they finish third and have to try to win two games on the road against Winnipeg and Calgary?
Should they finish fourth and cross over to the East Division, which is perceived to be an easier road to the Grey Cup based on the records of Toronto and Ottawa?
Here is the reality: The odds are against them anywhere they play.
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Micah Awe and the BC Lions need a win this week or further risk missing out on the post-season (Johany Jutras/CFL.ca)
Only three teams have advanced to the Grey Cup from the third spot in the West Division since the crossover came into effect in 1996. (BC in 2000 and Edmonton in 2005 won the Grey Cup).
And of the crossover teams, none have ever advanced to the Grey Cup and only three of the nine have won the Eastern Semi-Final. Toronto, who looks like the favourite to host the Eastern Final, is a solid 5-2 at BMO Field this season.
But when you look at BC, Edmonton and Saskatchewan, they should be more worried about how they are playing going into the playoffs and not where they could play come playoff time.
The Roughriders have evened off over the last month since a four-game winning streak in August/September turned their season around.
The run game and the run defence are the biggest concern. Since Cameron Marshall was injured in the Labour Day Classic win, the team has dropped below 70 yards of rushing yards per game, which ranks last in the league.
The Riders are going to have to run the ball to have any success this fall.
As for their run defence, they’ve allowed over 100 yards rushing in three of the last four games and 200 yards in their last game. Yes, they won, but it took a desperate climb from a 17-0 deficit to eek out an 18-17 victory.
Have teams found the secret to beating Chris Jones’ defence? If so, it will be a short November for the Roughriders.
Chris Jones and the Riders look to get back to their winning ways as the post-season approaches (Matt Smith/CFL.ca)
Meanwhile, in Edmonton, the Eskimos just need to win!
Edmonton has six straight losses, an offence that has sputtered and a defence that can’t make key plays and allows nearly 30 points per game.
Thinking about finishing third or fourth is the least of their concern.
The Eskimos are hoping the trade for running back C.J. Gable will give them a burst from the backfield. If so, it would go a long way to start playing winning football going into the playoffs because they have the weapons to be a threat.
Defensively, they need to start making plays. Twenty takeaways are only two more than Ottawa and Hamilton, who have the fewest takeaways in the league.
Edmonton plays BC and Saskatchewan down the stretch so definitely has fate in its own hands.
Finally, the BC Lions are similar to Edmonton. They’ve won just once in their last six games and are currently out of the playoff picture if they started today.
The problem plaguing the Lions is their offensive line, as they’ve allowed the most sacks and second-most quarterback pressures, making it very difficult for Jonathon Jennings to find the magic he had last season at this time.
With the quarterback having little time to pick apart the opposition, the Lions have also turned the ball over more than anybody else in the CFL.
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Like the Eskimos and Riders, they have the talent offensively to put a tonne of points on the board but just have not found their groove.
Defensively in BC, the biggest area of concern is the flip side of their offensive line play. The defensive line can’t get to the opposing quarterbacks. The Lions rank eighth in sacks for and last in pressuring the quarterback.
The Lions special teams are also ranked last or close to it in many major categories.
So before anybody starts talking about which path to the Grey Cup would be ‘easier’, these teams have some things to clean up before they go anywhere.
And, of course, they need get into the playoffs, because one team is going to be watching the post-season from the couch.
