Arthur Ward/CFL.ca
There is no perfect way to predict who will have a great game in Sunday’s Eastern Semi-Final. Look at all the numbers you want — from targets and catches or success in previous matchups to a veteran lined up across from a rookie and you could still be very, very wrong.
I know that while doing my CFL analysis and I embrace it. I wouldn’t want to cover a game where everything so was scientifically formulated that every outcome could be predicted.
With that in mind, I wanted to take a look at the big picture of the 2017 season as it pertains to offensive skill position players for both the REDBLACKS and Riders.
Again, there are endless metrics you could use to define success or project a standout performance but one of my favourites is targeted touch percentage.
Targeted touch percentage is exactly what it sounds like: the percentage of plays where an offensive player is targeted to get a touch. This includes runs and passes, completions and incompletions and just about everything else in between.
Here is the full-season breakdown for each Eastern Semi-Final team’s offensive skill position players:
In looking at the targeted touch percentages you can see how a game plan was designed from week to week, who coaches truly trust, what players have been underperforming while being buried in the offence and most importantly who is trending upwards at the most important time of the year.
Lets take a look first at the crossover bound Riders.
Duron Carter has continued to be the big play receiver Saskatchewan envisioned when signing him. An ankle injury slowed his targets and touches in Weeks 13 and 14 before being converted to play defensive back in Week 18, but Carter remains among the most likely Riders to get a touch on offence and something tells me he just might go off Sunday.
Oh what could have been. Demski started the season in Week 1 on the road in Montreal with a burst and quickness that made everyone else on the field look like a YouTube video set to half-speed playback. Demski would not come close to attaining the level of love he found in Week 1 and 2 for the remainder of the season due to injury and other Riders emerging.
Roosevelt’s targeted touch percentage rose steadily through the first five games of the 2017, and I fully expected that to continue — but a late-season injury and bad matchup against the BC Lions in Week 7 and 8 changed the course of his season. While everyone is talking about Duron Carter or any Riders running back Sunday, don’t be shocked to see Naaman go for five or more catches and 100 yards.
Right there alongside Roosevelt in the category of most consistent Riders skill position player is Bakari Grant. A resurgent stretch of efforts after the banjo bowl has recently declined but Bakari remains one of the more dangerous middle-of-the-field receivers in the CFL.
When Duron Carter and Nic Demski’s numbers dipped, Holley capitalized. Chris Jones says Carter will start on offence this week but if he doesn’t finish and Holley gets a chance to work against a trio of young Ottawa defensive backs, he could have a big day.
The picture of consistency and effort. Rob Bagg has done everything and anything you could ask of a veteran Canadian receiver. He is the prototypical example of how stats such as targeted touch percentage can, at times, not tell the full story.
This one is really interesting heading into the playoffs. Owens was out all season with an injured foot sustained last season in Hamilton. In his first three games back from injury to end the regular season, Owens has quickly become a ball-dominant player and has a spring in his step this week at practice, which suggests he’s ready to have the ball in his hands a lot against Ottawa.
The first choice – when healthy – for Chris Jones and the Riders, Cameron Marshall started the season in Regina at first-team running back, and I expect to see him back there this Sunday. He gives the Riders everything you could want in a back. Hands out of the backfield, pass protection and the ability to run between the tackles, off the edge and outside.
Always bridesmaid, never the bride.
LaFrance had a memorable Eastern Final last year at home playing for his opponent this weekend, the Ottawa REDBLACKS. Wouldn’t it be something if he dressed this Sunday as a third-string running back and special teamer, only to get an opportunity similar to the snowy Sunday afternoon against Edmonton last year?
That’s it for the Riders. A bunch of varied athletes, several with the potential to be game changers given the right matchup and opportunity.
Who could we say the same about for Ottawa?
Arguably the most dangerous and explosive receiver in the CFL alongside the likes of Green, Zylstra, Bowman, Adams and more. Ellingson remains the big-play threat in an otherwise patient REDBLACKS offence. One or two big plays from Harris to Ellingson could change the entire complexion of Sunday’s Eastern Semi-Final.
Lavoie will never blow you away with 15 targets and 120 yards, but his value is not measured in targets, catches and yards. Rather the ability to impact all phases of the REDBLACKS’ offensive game while also attaining the odd touch here and there on check downs and flat routes.
Pressure relieving throws for Trevor Harris will be required against a ferocious Riders pass rush.
In a three-game stretch this year (Week 10, 11, 12), Madu put up starting running back numbers and is constantly a threat to produce if Powell cannot go. Madu falling to injury in the first quarter of last year’s Eastern Final was what opened the door for Kienan LaFrance to have a big day and garner interest from the Riders in free agency.
I hate that this chart ends before this playoff game. All I want to do Sunday is watch Brad Sinopoli get his eight to 10 targets, convert five first downs and insulating the REDBLACKS’ aerial attack with consistency and route running over the middle. Hate that we can’t enjoy any of that due to a season-ending injury.
Somewhat quietly, Diontae Spencer has put together one of the most consistent and productive seasons from a REDBLACKS player in 2017. On top of these offensive targeted touches, Spencer has played a major role in establishing the Ottawa return game as a legitimate threat to score any time he touches the ball.
Most importantly, look at the way his targeted touches are trending over the last four games of the REDBLACKS’ season. It could be foreshadowing for Sunday.
Harty has played the role of good soldier on special teams throughout the year and been rewarded with Head Coach Rick Campbell and Offensive Coordinator Jaime Elizondo throwing the Canadian an odd bone or two on offence, including a package where Harty takes a handoff like a running back.
Stangby hasn’t been heard of much lately due to injury but when healthy he played an important role in the Ottawa attack.
Twice this season Gillanders has filled in on a moment’s notice and held his own. The Ottawa Gee-Gees product doesn’t get many touches but that makes his threat as a sleeper fantasy pick enticing. I’d love to see Gillanders dress, play and get the odd backdoor screen like Argos Fullback Declan Cross or Edmonton Eskimos Calvin McCarty on Sunday.
The workhorse. If Ottawa is going to win and advance to next Sunday’s Eastern final against the Toronto Argonauts, Powell will have to be a force. He’s the only man to break my targeted touch chart scale so far in 2017, posting a targeted touch percentage of 45.1 per cent in Week 15 against the Riders.
In fact, both of Powell’s highest workload days came against the Riders this regular season. I can’t wait to see how they use him Sunday.
If I had to pick one player from each team to bank on having a big Sunday afternoon in the nation’s capital, I’d have to say Cameron Marshall for Saskatchewan and Diontae Spencer for Ottawa.
Marshall is due for a big game and if he is healthy and starts, he should get a lot of touches in a game the Riders will attempt to wear down the opposing front seven.
As for Spencer, he’s trending the right away and the heavy threat of Powell established in Weeks 15 and 17 makes me believe the quick receiver screen game to Spencer will be alive and well Sunday
Those are my gut instinct picks. The beautiful thing is in the playoffs, anyone can play hero.
