Johany Jutras/Argonauts.ca
TORONTO — The road to the Grey Cup winds through Southern Ontario this week, where the Toronto Argonauts and Saskatchewan Roughriders meet for a chance to play in the 105th Grey Cup.
While the Riders took a 2-0 edge in head-to-head play, an early look at the numbers reveals a very close matchup between two teams hitting their peak at exactly the right time.
After a slow start, the Riders have won nine of their last 13 games, earning a playoff spot via the East Division crossover and running over the red-hot Ottawa REDBLACKS on the road. The Argos, meanwhile, have won five of their last seven, playing methodical offensive football on their way to hosting their first Eastern Final since 2013.
Three things to keep an eye on this week are the turnover battle; the Riders’ rapidly-improving running game; and a red-hot Ricky Ray.
We break it all down:
1. MISTAKE-FREE IS KEY
The Headline
You give away the ball, you give away the game
The Number
1 – Single turnover between the Argos and Riders in two head-to-head matchups this season.
The Skinny
Turnovers have played a big role in the Riders’ turnaround under Chris Jones, with the team ranking third in the CFL in takeaways (40) and second in giveaways (28) to make up the third-best ratio in the CFL (plus-12).
It’s the ultimate cliche to say that whoever wins the turnover battle wins the football game, but for the Riders, that’s been especially true this season. Two interceptions, a fumble and a third-down stop helped Saskatchewan win the Eastern Semi-Final on the road, while the Riders are now 9-1 in the 10 games they won the turnover battle outright.
While Ottawa has been a turnover machine this season, the Argos, despite finishing a minus-three in that department this season, will be tougher to take the ball from. Toronto has improved substantially at protecting the football under Marc Trestman, going from two turnovers per game over the first 12 games to just 1.2 per game over the previous six games (seven turnovers over that span).
Mistakes could be hard to come by for these cross-division foes, who played two very clean contests in head-to-head matchups this year with only one turnover coming off a Ricky Ray interception. But the numbers say that if there is an edge, it could be a decisive one as the Argos are 6-0 when forcing more turnovers than their opponent while the Riders are 0-6 when losing the turnover battle.
2. GETTING ON A RUN
The Headline
Groundbreaking development
The Number
160 – Riders’ per-game rushing average over the previous four contests.
The Skinny
No team struggled to run the football more throughout the regular season than the Riders, who averaged a league-worst 82.1 yards per game on the ground. But as the season went on, Chris Jones got his ground game on the run — regardless of who’s in at running back.
The Riders’ running back rotation is a unique one, yet it’s also brought success. Switching between Kienan LaFrance, Cameron Marshall, Trent Richardson and, most recently, Marcus Thigpen has kept everyone’s legs fresh into the post-season, as evidenced by Thigpen’s 169-yard explosion vs. the REDBLACKS.
Saskatchewan’s 212 rushing yards in Ottawa played a major difference in the Eastern Semi-Final, and it’s not out of line with recent performances. The Riders have averaged 160 yards rushing per game the last four contests, nearly double their 2017 regular season output.
A repeat performance on Sunday would drastically swing the odds for the Green and White — but it won’t be easy. The Argos boast the CFL’s top-ranked run defence (82.8 yards per game), and in two games against the Riders they only gave up 181 rushing yards (90.5 yards per game).
Running against a fully healthy Argos defensive front won’t be easy but is something the Riders must do to avoid becoming one-dimensional offensively.
3. RAY DAYS ARE BACK
The Headline
Will Ricky Ray get his say?
The Number
359.4 — Yards per game for Ricky Ray over his last five starts.
The Skinny
The Argos’ star quarterback has lit it up since late September, throwing for more than 300 yards in each of his last five contests — including a 341-yard performance against the Riders.
That’s not all. Over the same span, the methodical 38-year-old has completed 73.5 per cent of his passes with a 10:4 touchdown to interception ratio. Perhaps most impressive in that time is Ray’s 9.2 yards per attempt average (for comparison’s sake, Mike Reilly‘s season-long rate is 8.3 yards per attempt while Trevor Harris‘ is 8.5 yards).
Suffice to say, Ray, along with his MOP counterpart Reilly, has been among the CFL’s best pivots over the final third of the season. That’s going to challenge Chris Jones’ defence.
The Riders have allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards in the league this season, but their three-man rush has struggled to get to Ray, allowing totals of 341 yards and 386 yards in two regular season contests. If the Argos’ pivot has time to stand in the pocket and get through his reads, which Ray does so well under Marc Trestman, it could be a long day for the Saskatchewan secondary.
From Toronto’s perspective, Ray’s red-hot finish to the season has put him in contention for the first MOP of his career. Two more games of it and he could be holding up another Grey Cup.
