Numbers Don’t Lie: 3 stats that will define the Western Final
Johany Jutras/CFL.ca
TORONTO — After a one-year break, the Calgary Stampeders and Edmonton Eskimos will play in the Western Final for the third time in four years.
While the Stamps hold a 2-1 edge in the season series heading into the fourth installment of the Battle of Alberta, the numbers indicate a change in direction for the first- and third-ranked teams in the CFL’s highly-competitive West Division.
The Stamps won their second division title in a row after storming out to a 13-1-1 start, but are backing into the playoffs in the midst of a three-game losing streak. The Eskimos, meanwhile, after a six-game slump in the middle of the season, have won six straight games and are the CFL’s hottest team.
Will momentum continue for these provincial rivals? What do the stats tell us about the penultimate game of the 2017 season?
We break it all down:
1. CAN THE STAMPS STOP THE RUN?
The Headline
Identity crisis in Calgary?
The Number
141.3 – Rushing yards per game the Stamps have allowed over their last three contests, all losses.
The Skinny
About a month ago, we wondered aloud whether teams should even bother trying to run against Calgary’s stout run defence, which was far and away the best in the CFL through the first three quarters of the schedule. Oh, how things have changed.
The Stamps have allowed a minimum of 130 yards in each of their last three games against Saskatchewan, Edmonton and Winnipeg. Granted, those were meaningless games for the Red and White, with a second straight division title already wrapped up. But with C.J. Gable running the ball for Edmonton, it’s a trend that can’t be ignored.
Since acquiring Gable from Hamilton, the Esks are running the ball with a reckless abandon we haven’t seen in Edmonton since John White got injured. The Eskimos are averaging 122.7 rushing yards per game their last three, including 139 vs. Winnipeg in the Western Semi-Final.
That number is incredibly consistent with the 123.0 rushing yards per game the Eskies have averaged since Gable’s arrival (Gable did miss one of those games, a 67-yard effort. And in games Gable has played, the Esks have averaged 134.2 yards per game).
To put it a little more simply, the Stampeders are not stopping the run right now while the Eskimos’ ground game can’t seem to be contained.
2. HISTORICALLY GOOD DEFENCE
The Headline
Little to nothing… and much closer to nothing
The Number
16.7 – Offensive points per game the Stampeders’ defence has allowed this season.
The Skinny
Despite their recent struggles, the Calgary Stampeders still boast arguably the league’s best defence going into the Western Final. Now, having to play only three games over the last month and a half, DeVone Claybrooks’ unit should be well-rested and hungry to get back to the Grey Cup.
Intensity, of course, is something that can’t be quantified, but appears to have affected Dave Dickenson’s club during the season’s final stretch. Because through most of the season, Calgary’s defence didn’t allow anything, leading the Stamps to a 13-1-1 start and a chance at the all-time single-season wins record.
Now let’s talk real numbers. Just how good was Calgary’s defence in 2017? The Stamps led the CFL with 125 pressures and tied for first in the league with 50 sacks. They led the three-down game with 45 takeaways this season, also leading the CFL with 5.7 yards allowed per play this year.
One more stat: The Stamps have allowed only 17 passing touchdowns this season, fewer than one per game. Eskimos starting quarterback Mike Reilly has six of those.
The chess match between the Stamps’ historic defence and the Eskimos’ surging offence is one to watch.
3. SEVEN WOULD BE HEAVEN FOR REILLY
The Headline
Esks’ QB is Reilly, Reilly good
The Number
128 — Consecutive passes for Mike Reilly without throwing an interception.
The Skinny
The West Division finalist for Most Outstanding Player, Mike Reilly has gone four straight contests without throwing an interception. While his touchdowns to interceptions ratio (11:2 over the Eskimos’ six-game winning streak) is impressive, there’s a lot more to Reilly’s late-season surge.
Over the last six contests, Reilly’s 317.3-yard per-game average (and 9.7 yards per attempt) has given the Eskimos more than they’ve needed to continue winning football games.
While the Eskimos’ quarterback leads the league in touchdown drives (49) and game-winning drives (six), the stat that stands out about his successful season is the number of big plays he’s generated. This season, Reilly ranked second with 12 300-yard games, while also leading the CFL with 39 plays of 30-plus yards.
Aside from generating big plays at a massive clip, Reilly has also played a bigger role in the Eskimos’ rushing attack. No. 13 has averaged 6.8 carries per game the last six outings, compared to 4.8 rushing attempts per game over the first 13 games. That ability for Reilly to make a difference with his legs could play a major difference come Sunday.
Last but not least, if turnovers end up defining the Western Final, Reilly has gone four straight games without an interception. That bodes very well for an Eskimos club that went 6-1 this season when winning the turnover battle outright.
