Fantasy Strategy: It’s Hammer Time

In Fantasy sports, it’s almost always a bad idea to chase points by simply building a lineup from the previous week’s top scorers. That said, this week’s schedule provides three rematches from Week 12, so it’s not the worst idea in the world to rely on some of the same top performers.

QUARTERBACK

Top Projected

Jeremiah Masoli, HAM – $10,145

Mike Reilly, EDM – $14,000

Bo Levi Mitchell, CGY – $9,513

Punt Single

Travis Lulay, BC – $7,115

For the first time this season (outside of bye weeks), there is a new top projected passer on a CFL Fantasy slate. Only a few weeks ago some fans were calling for Masoli to be benched in favor of Johnny Manziel. Life comes at you fast.

Masoli finally had the breakout game many folks had been anticipating last week, passing for 385 yards and three touchdowns while amassing 27.6 fantasy points. The matchup is the same this week versus an Argos pass defence that allows a league high 9.6 yards per attempt – a full 1.5 yards more than league average – while allowing the second most total passing touchdowns at 17. The Argos rate of passing touchdowns allowed per attempt is now only slightly behind the Alouettes. The loss of Jalen Saunders for the remainder of the 2018 season hurts the offence in a macro sense but the TiCats still have a pass-first offence in the best matchup of the week.

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Reilly did about as well as could be expected versus the stifling Stampeders pass defence in Week 12. Calgary is the opposite of the Argos defence, allowing a league low 6.6 yards per pass attempt – 1.5 yards lower than league average – and only six total passing TDs so far this season. Reilly leads the most powerful passing offence in the CFL but the matchup — coupled with the loss of Derel Walker for up to eight weeks — makes it tough to justify the big spend this week.

Mitchell appeared to injure his knee in the Labour Day battle with Edmonton but returned with a knee brace and is expected to start in the rematch in Edmonton on Saturday. The injury to Kamar Jorden (who joins Eric Rogers on the IL) leaves the Stampeders down their top two receiving options but DaVaris Daniels stepped into the top role admirably last week and Jorden’s expected replacement, Reggie Begelton, is no slouch either. Calgary is second in the league with 22 passing touchdowns and pass for the third most yards per attempt (9.0), so Mitchell is still worthy of consideration versus an Eskimos pass defence that is right around league average in both categories.

The best value at QB this week isn’t going to grab the attention of players like Masoli or Reilly, but Lulay has been quietly consistent this season and is priced below some backup quarterbacks on the slate. In his last matchup versus Ottawa, Lulay had his best game of the season, passing for 325 yards and two touchdowns versus a REDBLACKS secondary that is allowing about a league average 8.3 yards per pass attempt and the third most total passing touchdowns (15). Lulay has a lower ceiling than the top options but also comes in at a very significant savings in salary.

RUNNING BACK

Top Projected

Alex Green, HAM – $7,548

Andrew Harris, WPG – $9,157

Jeremiah Johnson, BC – $7,629

Punt Single

Jordan Robinson, EDM – $2,500

Green’s ridiculous scoring rates are bound to regress at some point but even with a manual rate adjustment to account for that, Green has taken over from Harris as the top projected RB this week. The matchup with the Argos isn’t special, as the Argos allows below average rates of yards per rush attempt (5.13) and rushing touchdowns per attempt, but his usage rate in the red zone is unparalleled. Whereas most teams bring in the backup quarterback to carry the ball around the goal line, the TiCats have opted to use Green as the ball carrier in those spots in a more American influenced June Jones style offence. The extra opportunities this provides Green to score touchdowns can’t be understated.

Harris had the best game of any running back versus the Riders rush defence this season in rushing for 158 yards on 15 carries last Sunday afternoon in Regina. However, 105 of those yards came in the first half and 31 of his 53 second half rushing yards came on one play as the Riders adjusted to slow him at halftime. Harris is still an interesting contrarian play as the matchup and high price tag may keep his ownership levels down but the Riders third ranked rush defence makes him a tougher spend this week than most.

The matchup isn’t that special for Johnson as the REDBLACKS allow below average rates of yards per carry (5.06) and rushing touchdowns per attempt but his above average rate of rushing touchdowns per attempt make him a reasonable option at home Friday night versus Ottawa. He may also have an increased workload this week leading to higher than projected touches as Chris Rainey was benched in favor of Travon Van.

If players are looking to punt the second RB slot, Robinson may be the best option if he retains all the return duties for the Eskimos. The potential for a couple touches from scrimmage would just be icing on the cake.

WIDE RECEIVER

Top Projected

Brandon Banks, HAM – $8,587

Luke Tasker, HAM – $6,798

DaVaris Daniels, CGY – $6,250

Duke Williams, EDM – $8,158

Greg Ellingson, OTT – $6,823

Diontae Spencer, OTT – $8,345

Brad Sinopoli, OTT – $7,380

Bryant Mitchell, EDM – $4,216

Punt Single(s)

Kyran Moore, SSK – $2,500

Reggie Begelton, CGY – $2,610

Kenbrell Thompkins, WPG – $2,500

Mike Jones, HAM – $2,500

Rashad Lawrence, HAM – $2,500

After posting a combined 17 receptions for 278 yards and three touchdowns in Week 12, it’s no surprise to see Banks and Tasker atop the receiver projections in the Week 13 rematch versus Toronto. The Argos do not seem to have any answers for their porous pass defence, leaving no reason to avoid going back to the well again for TiCats receivers this week. Banks has gone over 100 yards receiving in four of his past five games and in seven of his ten games this season. His salary is high but no receiver this week has a higher ceiling. Tasker has stepped into an increased role in the offence since Chris Williams was lost to injury, and the added loss of Jalen Saunders should only add to his importance.  The Argos allow the most yards target and the second highest rate of receiving TDs per target, so it’s a good week to stack Hamilton receivers with Masoli.

Daniels is another recipient of an increased workload due to injury who posted season highs in receptions (7) and yardage (116) last week after Jorden was lost to injury. Being without Rogers and Jorden hurts the Stamps passing attack overall but it’s a significant opportunity for Daniels to step into the lead role. The Eskimos allow the third most yards per target to opposing receivers along with the most completions of over 30 yards this season (22). Daniels will have increased opportunities without a bump in salary, making him a great target for Mitchell and Fantasy players.

Despite facing the most difficult matchup in the league, Williams still managed to go over 100 yards receiving while also notching another touchdown versus the Stampeders in Week 12. Walker’s injury won’t likely lead to more looks for Williams, but it probably does give him a higher floor as he’ll be the weekly focal point in the Eskimos passing game. The Stampeders allow a league low yards per target and receiving touchdowns per target though, so Duke is still more of a contrarian play in this matchup. The much cheaper option in the Edmonton passing attack is Mitchell, who is likely to step into Walker’s vacated spot in the slot. Mitchell had a huge outing in his only start of 2018 with seven receptions for 128 yards and a touchdown versus Montreal in Week 10. The matchup with Calgary, though, should temper expectations.

The trio of top receivers in Ottawa round out the top projected receivers in Week 13 in their matchup with BC. The Lions allow the fourth most yards per target (8.35) but a below average rate of touchdowns per target. The matchup isn’t that special but the billboards on Narrative Street all say that Ottawa should be motivated to prove their loss to the Alouettes a week ago hasn’t outed them as pretenders atop the East division. Ellingson is the lowest priced of the group and has been the most involved in the offence of late making him a good option despite lower than average scoring rates this season compared to his previous two. Sinopoli has been quiet over the past couple weeks but had his biggest game of the season in Week 6 versus this same Lions squad.

The bargain bin is teeming with new stock due to injury depleted receiving corps league wide. Moore had a breakout game in Week 12 as a triple threat option as a rusher, receiver, and punt return, including a 65-yard punt return touchdown. Even if Christion Jones returns to his regular duties on special teams, Moore is worthy of consideration at his price tag. Begelton is again open for business in Calgary and likely to be starting in the slot for the Stampeders versus Edmonton. He hasn’t flashed a ton of upside in his previous opportunities but should certainly get a handful of targets on Saturday afternoon. Other minimum priced options worth looking at include Thompkins, Rhymes, Jones and Lawrence.

DEFENCE

Saskatchewan Roughriders – $6,047

Ottawa REDBLACKS – $4,067

No defensive unit has the upside of the Roughriders on any given week, but the price is getting egregious. With all the values at WR available though, they may be an option. They lead the league in forced two and outs (67) and defensive touchdowns (6), while being second in sacks (26) and third in forced turnovers (26). Winnipeg has given up the second most turnovers in the league (24) while being forced into the third most two and outs (55), so it may be another lucrative afternoon for those willing to pay up for the Riders defence.

The REDBLACKS are a cheaper option for players to consider in a matchup versus the Lions minus their top receiving option ( Emmanuel Arceneaux) and their most dangerous playmaker (Rainey). Ottawa has compiled 17 sacks in their past five games along with nine turnovers, and two defensive touchdowns. This unit is playing some of its best football right now.

STACKS

Masoli > Banks, Tasker

Masoli finally had his big breakthrough last week and there’s no reason to anticipate a slowdown for the TiCats offence this week. With all the values opening at WR this week due to injury, it’s quite possible to stack the top of the TiCats offence.

Mitchell > Daniels, Begelton

The Eskimos are much more susceptible to the ground attack than the passing game but relatively cheap salaries for Daniels and Begelton make this trio a reasonable consideration in the rematch in Edmonton.

Lulay > Bryan Burnham

The Lions struggled badly with drops in their last game. That coupled with the loss of Arceneaux will make the relatively sure hands of Burnham (career 71.1% catch rate) a consistent target for Lulay on Friday night.

Trevor Harris > Ellingson

The REDBLACKS offence has been dreadfully inconsistent this season as Harris has five games of better than 18 fantasy points and four games in single digits including one in which he was -0.3. This adds up to very few people being on the Ottawa offence and the opportunity for a low owned Harris/Ellingson stack to go off as Ellingson has 27 catches for 314 yards in his last three games. The touchdowns will come for him eventually.

Week 13 Projections

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers