Fantasy Strategy: Injuries lead to value across the board

The Thanksgiving weekend slate of games in Week 17 introduces new faces to the top of the player projections due to injury. As the season grinds on, it’s more important than ever to keep an eye on depth charts as the weeks progress to determine which players are most likely to see increased workloads. Calgary and Toronto week may provide some of the best values all season based on their projected Week 17 depth charts.

QUARTERBACK

Top Projected

Bo Levi Mitchell, CGY – $10,847

Mike Reilly, EDM – $13,861

Matt Nichols, WPG – $6,267

Punt Single

Zach Collaros, SSK – $5,948

The math has Mitchell narrowly edging out Reilly for the top spot in the projections this week, but the matchup, salary and recent production of both players will lead most folks to lean for more heavily in the direction of Mitchell. Bo and the Stamps’ offence lead the league in touchdown passes (30) while being second in yards per attempt (9.19). The pace projections also work in Mitchell’s favour as Calgary is expected to run the second most offensive plays on the slate (63.4). The Alouettes allowed nearly 400 passing yards to Collaros and Saskatchewan last week – nearly 30 per cent more than his previous season high – so it’ll be interesting to see what Bo can do, even with a depleted WR corps. Eric Rogers may well be back which would only boost Mitchell’s value. The steep price discount only makes him that much more the clear play over Reilly.

If not for his high market share of rushing touchdowns due to goal line work that other top passers lack, Reilly wouldn’t be anywhere near Mitchell’s projection. In his past two games he has looked more like Banjo Bowl Matt Nichols – under pressure, frantic, indecisive, and turnover prone – than the reigning MOP. The Roughriders defence isn’t a welcome matchup for teams struggling with pass protection as they are second in the league in sacks (36). Reilly and the Eskimos are still second in the league in touchdown passes (27) and are third in yards per attempt (8.89) so he’s still worth consideration. The offence just hasn’t been the same since the loss of Derel Walker and the injury to Duke Williams.

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After Mitchell and Reilly there is a steep drop in projected points, but there is a corresponding steep drop in salary as well. Nichols and the Bombers offence, despite their struggles, still have the third highest rate of TD passes per attempt while the REDBLACKS allow the third highest rate of passing TDs per attempt. If Nichols can manage even two touchdown passes along with a couple hundred passing yards he can easily pay off the tag while leaving extra space for top players at other positions.

Another low-priced option worthy of consideration this week is Collaros, who is coming off his best outing of the season and now facing an Eskimos pass defence allowing the second most yards per pass attempt and the most plays of 30-plus yards this season (29). If Collaros and the Riders intend to fully embrace the forward pass era of professional football, the matchup with Edmonton on Thanksgiving Monday is a great opportunity to do so.

RUNNING BACK

Top Projected

Andrew Harris, WPG – $8,083

William Powell, OTT – $10,014

Don Jackson, CGY – $6,823

Punt Single

Dexter McCluster, TOR – $2,500

It’s an overall down week at the running back position as the overall projections are a little lower than normal and the values are even worse with one exception. Harris leads the way in projected scoring and is actually the top value at the position as well outside of the minimum-priced McCluster. It’s been nearly two months since Harris had a great outing, but PPR points due to usage as a receiver keep him at the top of the projections despite the fact he hasn’t cracked 100 yards rushing or receiving since Week 6. Ottawa allows the third fewest yards per rush attempt (4.99) and third lowest rate of touchdowns per rush attempt so it may be tough slogging for Harris this week despite his high usage rates.

Harris’s shadow on the Ottawa sidelines, Powell, doesn’t have a much easier go in the yardage department – Winnipeg allows only 5.03 yards per carry – but his opportunities to score should be better as Winnipeg allows the second highest rate of rushing touchdowns per attempt. Also boosting Powell’s ceiling is his volume of opportunities as Ottawa projects to run the most plays on the slate (64.5), while Powell projects for the highest number of total touches of all running backs. The price tag is prohibitive, making him a poor value, but he has the highest ceiling of any player at the position this week.

Since breaking out over the first month of the season when he averaged 7.76 yards per carry, Jackson has been slowed by injury and has seen his average drop to just 4.83 yards per carry over his past four games. Having gone scoreless over that stretch has also hurt his rates a lot. The Montreal defence got torched by a previously inert Riders passing offence but they remain the second toughest matchup for opposing RBs in terms of yards per carry (4.83). If Calgary gets out to a huge lead by halftime, Jackson could see increased touches over and above projections in the second half, but even then, the efficiency probably won’t be great. Jackson’s ability to hit value hinges on scoring a touchdown for the first time since Week 3.

The best value on the slate comes in the form of McCluster who is set at minimum price while being expected to see the bulk of the workload for the Argos with Wilder on the shelf due to injury. His speed made him a return specialist in the NFL, but during his time in college at Ole Miss, there were fewer players that presented a bigger dual threat as both a rusher and receiver. Even if McCluster splits some of the workload with Branden Burks, he should be able to get more than enough production to be the best value at RB. BC allows a league average 5.17 yards per carry and the third highest rate of rushing touchdowns per attempt. There’s no good reason to avoid him this week.

WIDE RECEIVER

Top Projected

Eric Rogers, CGY – $8,192

Duke Williams, EDM – $9,055

Bryant Mitchell, EDM – $5,778

Diontae Spencer, OTT – $8,450

Juwan Brescacin, CGY – $3,700

Greg Ellingson, OTT – $7,266

Brad Sinopoli, OTT – $6,923

Bryan Burnham, BC – $7,899

Punt Single

Markeith Ambles, CGY – $2,500

Another week in the books and another Stampeders receiver on injured reserve. The loss of Reggie Begelton was another blow to the Calgary receiving corps, but it looks like Rogers is finally ready to make his return to the starting lineup. The Alouettes secondary isn’t as porous as Toronto’s but they still allow the third most yards per target (8.78) and the second highest rate of passing touchdowns per target. If Rogers starts, he’s the unquestioned top target for Mitchell in a great matchup. Brescacin has had a great couple of weeks as the second option in the Stamps passing attack in games that saw them lose DaVaris Daniels and Begelton to injuries early, but there’s a good case to be made that Ambles may be a more likely candidate for that role. At only $3,700 he should still easily make value, but it’s less likely he has another week of 15-plus Fantasy points. Ambles is the top value at WR on the slate, having seen 77 air yards per game as opposed to Brescacin’s 49.

Williams leads the group of Edmonton receivers into Mosaic Stadium on Monday afternoon coming off their two worst games of the season. Williams appears set to play but is certainly beat up, as he is suffering what appeared to be a second injury to his already ailing shoulder. The entire Eskimos offence has seemed sluggish and out of sorts the past two weeks so it’s difficult to get excited about paying top dollar for Williams versus the Riders pass defence that allows a below average 7.89 yards per target. In Duke’s only other matchup versus the Riders, he had a measly two receptions for 41 yards, so despite the mean projection it may be a fair idea to pass on Williams until the Eskimos again figure out how to pass. His teammate, Mitchell, continues to see double-digit targets in Walker’s absence, making him a solid play even in a tough matchup. It’s hard to believe this Eskimos offence can stay this bad forever.

The Ottawa group of receivers is led in the projections by Spencer, who seems to be the best bet from what has been an inconsistent receiving corps over the past couple months. It’s difficult to know which of Spencer, Ellingson, or Sinopoli will be the top target for Harris on any given week, making them each a difficult spend in the $7-9K range. Spencer does have the bonus of return yards which often leads to the highest projection of the group. Winnipeg allows the third fewest yards per target (7.71) and the second fewest receiving touchdowns per target as well, making each of these three plays a risky option.

Burnham rounds out the top group of receivers in an enticing matchup with the Argos. Burnham has averaged a touchdown a game over the Lions’ past six contests, but he has still only eclipsed 100 receiving yards once this season. The Argos are the league’s most generous secondary, allowing 9.64 yards per target and the highest rate of passing touchdowns per attempt. Jonathon Jennings and the BC passing game looked dreadful this past week versus the Ticats, but there is not better opportunity than this for them to turn things around.

DEFENCE

Calgary Stampeders – $5,417

Toronto Argonauts – $3,200

Despite rave reviews of Johnny Manziel’s two-touchdown performance on Sunday, he still only completed nine passes for a total of 138 yards. The Calgary defence that has forced the second most two and outs (78) and the second most turnovers (38) all while allowing the fewest points per game to opposing offences (20.3) is not deterred. Expensive defences can be difficult to fit at times but with the salary relief in McCluster, Brescacin, and Ambles available, this is a good opportunity to spend up at the position.

The Argos defence isn’t in the same class as the Stampeders, but their matchup with the Lions is worth picking on if players don’t have the funds to get up to Calgary. Jennings had a solid Week 15 game versus Hamilton but there is a large sample of data that shows he’s quite turnover prone and it was evident in the Week 16 rematch. The Argos are probably the best bet for a minimum priced defence this week.

STACKS

Mitchell >Rogers, Brescacin, Ambles

Mitchell’s salary keeps rising, but due to injuries, the cost of Stampeders stacks continues to be low. A triple stack probably limits the ceiling of a given lineup but grouping Mitchell with Rogers and one of Brescacin or Ambles will probably be one of the most popular builds this week.

Collaros > Jordan Williams-Lambert, Shaq Evans, Kyran Moore

Collaros had his first 300-yard effort as a Rider last week versus the Alouettes and Evans and Moore were the main beneficiaries of the volume of targets freed up with Naaman Roosevelt on the six game IR. The matchup with Edmonton this week is similarly inviting, so a cheap Riders stack would let players spend up for both Powell and Harris if not going the Stampeders route.

Nichols > Darvin Adams

Team Math does not like this stack. However, a journey down narrative street reveals a stat line like this in career matchups versus the REDBLACKS:

It’s noisy, unactionable data from a small sample size versus different players, coaches, and systems. There is no way to make a data-based case for Adams, but if players are going to go the Nichols value route at QB, Adams appears to be the stacking option to go with.

WEEK 17 PROJECTIONS

QUARTERBACKS

RUNNING BACKS

RECEIVERS