Start vs Sit: Great source of production in league-leading defence

Brandon C. Williams

CFL.ca

Week 17 is filled with storylines that can (and in some cases will) produce a season-defining moment for each team. Even the Stampeders, who punched their playoff ticket last week, aren’t devoid of drama, especially with a seemingly endless wealth of receivers available to step up in the absence of another pass-catcher.

Three of the four games on Thanksgiving weekend — including a pair on Thanksgiving Day — appear to be toss-ups, and even the Stampeders-Alouettes has the seeds of being closer than expected should Montreal’s offence continues to show flashes of improvement after pushing the Roughriders last week. That also means there will be some obvious starts and surprising sits. Let’s be thankful for all that is great in Canada and find the answers to the questions.

Given the recent struggles the Green and Gold have endured, the price tag attached to Mike Reilly may just not be worth it in Week 17 against the Roughriders. (The Canadian Press)

Ottawa (8-5-0) at Winnipeg (7-7-0)

Friday | 7:30 p.m. ET

Start: Winnipeg Defence, $5,837 Salary

The Bombers’ defence has kept playoff hopes alive despite the struggles of pivot Matt Nichols ($6,267) and a banged-up Andrew Harris ($8,083). Winnipeg scored a season-best 29 Fantasy points last week as they forced six turnovers, recorded four sacks and added a defensive major in their 30-3 victory at Edmonton. The unit leads the league with 39 turnovers that include a CFL-high 17 interceptions. What makes the Winnipeg D more effective is that the offence has cashed in a league-best 128 points off opponents’ miscues. Although the REDBLACKS are tied with the Stampeders with a league-low 25 turnovers, Ottawa is eighth in the league in total touchdowns (28) and last in average yards gained on first down (6.0). Trevor Harris ($8,832) and company have the potential to light up a scoreboard, but if Winnipeg forces an early turnover or applies pressure with their pass rush, the Bombers will be a good source of production for Fantasy users.

Sit: Matt Nichols, QB, Blue Bombers, $6,267 Salary

At this point in the season, it’s best not to hitch the Fantasy wagon to hopes that Nichols puts it together down the stretch. In his last five games, Nichols is averaging a paltry 204.8 passing yards per contest and a disturbing 3:8 TD:INT rate. He has yet to reach the 300-yard barrier in a game this season and has been held to one or zero passing majors seven times. Nichols’ ineffective numbers have hurt the Winnipeg receiving corps, which has been left to Darvin Adams ($6,834) and a host of talented, yet inconsistent wideouts who have failed to establish themselves as a complement to Adams. Ottawa’s pass defence has been league-average much of the season but will look better than expected unless Nichols can return to his 2017 ways.

Toronto (3-10-0) at BC (6-7-0)

Saturday | 7:00 p.m. ET

Start: Dexter McCluster, RB, Argonauts, $2,500 Salary

With James Wilder Jr. ($8,223) ruled out, Fantasy users get the opportunity to utilize a player capable of giving them 20 touches at a rock bottom price. McCluster was effective in his CFL debut, amassing 119 all-purpose yards on 13 touches as a runner, receiver and return specialist. The former Pro Bowler with the Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs is also gifted with a matchup against the Lions’ special teams, which are eighth in opponent’s average kickoff return allowed (23.1) and sixth in opponents punt return average (10.7). Look for Argos pivot McLeod Bethel-Thompson ($8,400) to give McCluster his share of targets, which could open up Toronto’s downfield passing attack.

Sit: Jeremiah Johnson, RB, Lions, $6,910 Salary

On the opposite end of the salary spectrum lies Johnson, who had only six yards on three carries in last week’s loss to the Stamps. One could assume Johnson has nowhere to go but up, yet his ceiling continues to dip. He has not scored a touchdown in his last three games and has been north of 69 yards only once this season. It’s frustrating to place Johnson as a sit this week when the Lions are facing a Toronto defence that is last in rushing yards allowed per game (118.1), yet his salary and lack of production is a risk not worth taking.

With the list of injuries across the Calgary receiving corps, it’s ‘next man up’ with Marken Michel, who will likely assume the go-to role with Bo Levi Mitchell. (Johany Jutras, CFL.ca)

Calgary (11-2-0) at Montreal (3-11-0)

Monday | 1:00 p.m. ET

Start: Marken Michel, WR, Stampeders, $6,684 Salary

Michel has quietly put together a string of four straight games with a touchdown reception and has scored double-digit Fantasy points in six of his 10 games this season, numbers that are more impressive considering he has yet to catch more than five passes or record a 100-yard outing. That will likely change, as Michel fills the WR1 role for pivot Bo Levi Mitchell ($10,848), who has thrown for 16 touchdowns in his last five games. The Alouettes are last in both passing majors allowed (26) and passing yards allowed per game (321), making a combustible element for a Stampeders passing attack that has a league-best 36 completions of better than 30 yards. Expect Michel to frequently partake in the feast of the Montreal secondary.

Sit: William Stanback, RB, Alouettes, $4,746 Salary

The rookie has shown promise by averaging nearly seven yards per touch from scrimmage and 24.4 yards on kickoff returns, but Stanback has yet to score a major in his 79 total touches. Yes, the Als are last with 20 offensive touchdowns, but backup quarterback Antonio Pipkin has scored six times from inside the five, a spot where the 6’0, 233-pound Stanback would thrive at if Pipkin shared the ball. All Stanback’s promise also goes for nought against a Calgary defence allowing a league-low 77.4 yards per game on the ground and only 10 rushing touchdowns. There are better days ahead for Stanback, but Thanksgiving Day isn’t one of them.

Edmonton (7-7-0) at Saskatchewan (9-5-0)

Monday | 4:00 p.m. ET

Start: Kyran Moore, WR, Roughriders, $4,548 Salary

Any time a player can nearly double his salary in one week, it is a good time to be shared by all. Moore, who caught nine passes for 126 yards and a touchdown in last week’s win over Montreal, might be the playmaker quarterback Zach Collaros ($5,948) needed to jump-start Saskatchewan’s mostly dormant passing game. Moore will also handle punt return duties, giving him extra opportunities against an Edmonton team that has allowed a combined 48 big plays this season. He and Jordan Williams-Lambert ($4,529) have seized the bulk of Collaros’ targets, yet it’s Moore who offers the higher upside.

Sit: Mike Reilly, QB, Eskimos, $13,861 Salary

Let’s be clear: no one here is piling on Reilly after last week’s debacle against the Bombers. What is being said is that Reilly and his salary isn’t going to offer much of a return, especially since the Roughriders defence proved as much when they held him to 257 yards and one touchdown in their previous meeting during Week 8. There is little doubt that Reilly can shatter this prognosis and put up 35-39 Fantasy points, but he’s too much of a risk for Fantasy users who harbour a legitimate chance to win their respective leagues.

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