CFL Simulation: All in for final remaining playoff spot

TORONTO — Two weeks remain with the West Division far from being settled.

The Calgary Stampeders had the opportunity to seal the top spot in the division with a win over the Riders in Week 19, however, Saskatchewan had other plans while picking up their second victory of the season against the Stampeders. The BC Lions made Edmonton’s playoff hopes much dimmer after their win at BC Place. All this while the Winnipeg Blue Bombers spent the week off.

In the East, Hamilton took a step back after letting a 16-point lead slip away to the hands of the Ottawa REDBLACKS, who take the edge in the East Division race for the No. 1 seed.

This week’s edition of CFL Simulation may just be the most unclear picture we’ve seen in this series so far this season. For the first time this season, no team is favoured over 50 per cent to win the Grey Cup, let alone even make it the big game in Edmonton. The simulation model continues to like the Winnipeg Blue Bombers as they ride their four-game winning streak into their Friday matchup against Calgary.

The Hamilton Tiger-Cats are also being favoured despite their Week 19 loss to the Ottawa REDBLACKS. The rematch between the two squads this week in Hamilton could make the East troublesome in the event of a Ticats win, making the final week of the schedule some edge-of-your-seat entertainment.

We break it down in the latest CFL Simulation.

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Here is a look at how the teams stack up:

The model considers the following:

•             Each team’s current win-loss record.
•             Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
•             Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
•             Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
•             Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule.  The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins.  For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.

For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the Western Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.