CFL Simulation: A dash of Grey along the prairies

TORONTO — Entering into the 21st and final week of the CFL regular season, CFL Simulation is back before the playoffs get underway. The contestants have been determined, but one game remains that can prove as a determining factor in how the playoff landscape takes place.

A win by Calgary this week will earn them the first round bye come playoff time, earning themselves the No. 1 seed in the West Division. However, a loss and the Roughriders earn themselves their first West Divison title since 2009.

The simulation model has the Saskatchewan Roughriders feeding off of their recent wins as they’re projected to be the top team with the highest chance of making it to Edmonton for the 106th Grey Cup. Perhaps those two wins against the Stampeders this season have something to do with that. As for the Stamps, having spent the majority of the season as front-runners for the team with the largest advantage of both playing in and winning the Grey Cup, their recent struggles have drastically impacted their projection.

Despite having to win two road games in order to make it to the championship, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers hold the highest projected percentage through the simulation of winning the Grey Cup in the event that they do manage to make it to the big show. If they managed to pull it off, it would be the Bombers first Grey Cup win since 1990.

We break it down in the latest CFL Simulation.

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Here is a look at how the teams stack up:

The model considers the following:

•             Each team’s current win-loss record.
•             Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
•             The margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
•             Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
•             Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule.  The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins.  For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.

For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the Western Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.