Fantasy Strategy: Salary cap management 101

With many of the league’s top players in action this weekend, the salary cap is tighter than it has been all season with the top projected players at each position set to eat up at least a full third (if not more) of the total salary cap. It will be difficult to stack passers with their top receiving options, so Fantasy players will have to be creative while constructing their lineups. With $2,000 on the line for the top score in the Division Finals, there’s no point in playing it safe.

QUARTERBACK

Top Projected:

Jeremiah Masoli, HAM – $11,516

Bo Levi Mitchell, CGY – $8,911

Trevor Harris, OTT – $9,691

Masoli saw limited action in the blowout Eastern Semi-Final last week but was still the top Fantasy option at the position by a fair margin. Despite the loss of Brandon Banks, Masoli had his most efficient game of the year, averaging 13.6 yards per attempt to go along with three TDs. Bralon Addison has emerged out of nowhere to be the Ticats’ new field stretching threat and breathed new life into the offence. The Ticats project for the highest pace of the week and Masoli projects for the highest rate of Fantasy points per pass attempt this week, making for a solid recipe for success. The Ottawa defence ranked in the top third of the league in terms of yards and touchdowns per attempt allowed, but with only four teams remaining in the playoffs, the days of looking for easy matchups to exploit are over anyways.

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The Stampeders won their Week 21 matchup over BC without much resistance from the Lions, but Mitchell still hasn’t cracked 300 yards passing since Week 16 while his passing yards per attempt remains well down from his early season levels. Winnipeg allowed the second highest number of plays per game to opposing offences through the regular season (58.1) so Mitchell should get a few more opportunities than usual even if the efficiency is lower. Winnipeg’s defence, however, was behind only Calgary’s in terms of yards per pass and TDs per pass allowed, so the windows for Mitchell may be tight, especially considering the Bombers allowed the fewest plays of 30-plus passing yards this season (19) which has been the Stamps’ saving grace.

Harris was one of the most mercurial passers throughout the regular season, with almost as many games of single digit fantasy points (five) as games with over 20 Fantasy points (six). His season-long record versus Hamilton was a microcosm of that with totals of 9.1, 17.6, and 22.7 Fantasy points. Despite being one of the few QBs this season to have largely the same starting lineup of offensive weapons around him every week, his production fluctuated wildly. Of the remaining defences in the playoffs, Harris draws the most appealing matchup of the bunch as Hamilton allowed the second most touchdowns per pass attempt through the regular season for a total of 27. There’s a case to be made that Harris is the best Fantasy option at QB this week, but it also wouldn’t be shocking to see him put up the lowest score at the position, either.

RUNNING BACK

Top Projected:

Andrew Harris, WPG – $8,852

Alex Green, HAM – $9,344

William Powell, OTT – $8,764

Punt Single:

Terry Williams, CGY – $4,923

Harris braved the snow and cold in Regina on Sunday as his offensive line plowed clear lanes up and down the field leading to 153 yards rushing and one touchdown versus a stout Riders rush defence. The road won’t be any clearer this weekend in Calgary where the Stamps allowed the fewest rush yards per attempt this season. In two games versus the Stampeders this season, Harris had one game averaging a solid 5.7 yards per carry but also one in which he got a meager 1.9 yards per attempt. Two of his best games as a receiver this season came against Calgary as well though as he averaged 5.5 receptions for 47.5 yards in those contests. The price tag has risen back to early season levels, but he remains the best Fantasy option at RB.

Outside of a mid-season tear in which Green scored eight touchdowns in five games, he has been much more human, averaging just 11.58 Fantasy points per game over his past four starts. While Harris can pay off his tag with yardage and receptions alone, Green is much more touchdown-dependent as his workload isn’t as heavy and he is generally less involved in the passing attack. Unfortunately for him, Ottawa allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns this season of any playoff team (14) – the third lowest overall rate of any team this season – so his touchdown opportunities may be limited.

Alex Green’s Fantasy impact depends on whether or not he can find the end zone (Geoff Robins/CFL.ca)

Powell, like his quarterback Harris, was also a somewhat inconsistent Fantasy option this season despite nearly winning the rushing title. While Powell had several big games on the ground with 10 games of over 80 yards rushing, he also had games in which he nearly disappeared with six such games in which he was held under 50 yards. Also somewhat concerning is the fact he was held without a single catch in both of his two final games of the regular season which is a big blow in PPR scoring. The matchup versus Hamilton is the best remaining in the playoffs for opposing RBs as they allow 5.33 yards per carry and an above average rate of rushing TDs per carry. Also, like Harris, Powell could easily be the highest scoring RB on the slate or the lowest. Neither would be surprising.

It’s hard to call any player priced near $5K a punt option, but Williams should see significant work as the Stamps’ primary kick returner along with a handful of touches as a rusher and receiver. The Stamps led the league with four kickoffs returned for touchdowns this season, so Williams has the upside to make him worthy of consideration on a week in which all the other starting RBs are priced quite expensively.

WIDE RECEIVER

Top Projected:

Diontae Spencer, OTT – $10,937

Luke Tasker, HAM – $9,500

Brad Sinopoli, OTT – $7,985

Greg Ellingson, OTT – $7,432

Eric Rogers, CGY – $6,340

DaVaris Daniels, CGY – $7,191

Darvin Adams, WPG – $6,993

Punt Single(s):

Chris Matthews, CGY – $3,500

Markeith Ambles, CGY – $4,415

Bralon Addison, HAM – $4,000

Justin Buren, HAM – $2,500

With his all-around contributions in the passing game and on special teams, it’s no surprise that Spencer is the top projected player at WR this week, but with a price tag over one third of the total salary cap, it’s tough to figure out ways to get him in lineups. Hamilton does allow the most yards per target (7.92) of the remaining playoff teams, along with the highest rate of passing TDs per target, so there is some justification for the tag. Hamilton also allowed the second most yards per punt return in the regular season, so his special teams prospects are good as well. His teammates, Sinopoli and Ellingson, come in at much more affordable price tags but also have more moderate ceilings.

The bad news is Tasker caught just three passes versus BC in the East Semi-Final. The good news for his Fantasy users is that he averaged 23.3 yards per reception and turned two of his three catches into touchdowns – that makes it eight TDs in his past five games. The Ottawa defence allowed the third fewest receiving TDs per attempt this season, but the overall total of 26 was still the fourth most in the league. Tasker’s climbing price tag reflects his exceptional scoring efficiency, so Fantasy players will have to decide whether they believe his rates are sustainable as his value is largely touchdown dependant. His teammate, Addison, on the other hand comes in at less than half of the salary cap hit while stepping in the Banks vacated spot in the offence. He has produced over 100 yards receiving in each of his past two games while averaging 10 targets per game in that span. Any receiver getting that kind of attention is worth rostering, let alone at a bargain price of only $4K.

Lineup questions surround a Stamps receiving group that appears to be getting healthy (Jimmy Jeong/CFL.ca)

Throughout the second half of the season, the Stampeders provided no end of headaches for Fantasy players as their receivers were felled by injuries time and time again. Heading into the Western Final, they provide a totally different problem: they have too many healthy receivers. It took a while, but Matthews and Ambles rounded into form and were valuable Fantasy contributors down the stretch, but this week Daniels is set to return from injury and it’s likely only three of Matthews, Ambles, Daniels, Rogers, and Bakari Grant start on Sunday. Which of those in this group will get the nod at this point is anyone’s guess. Those rostering Stampeders receivers this week will have to pay close attention to the depth charts when they are released on Saturday. Winnipeg is second only to Calgary in limiting both yards and scores through the air, so it’s unlikely to be a high-flying aerial affair.

Adams was held largely in check by the Riders defence on Sunday, but the weather conditions were prohibitive to any receiver having a big game. Conditions are expected to be milder this Sunday in Calgary, so Adams and the rest of the Bombers receiving corps may get a little more action. Winnipeg is the most run-heavy team in the league, so opportunities are generally fewer for Bombers receivers, but Adams tends to be the most targeted and most efficient member of the group. Given the matchup and game context, it’s likely Adams is relatively low owned, but his mid-tier price tag and relative upside make him worth of consideration.

DEFENCE

Top Projected:

Calgary Stampeders – $4,680
Winnipeg Blue Bombers – $6,105
Ottawa REDBLACKS – $3,394

The Stampeders, somewhat surprisingly, have a pretty moderate price tag this weekend given their season-long success. They averaged 8.5 Fantasy points per game over the course of the year which was less than a point per game lower than Winnipeg. A $1,500 savings for only a 0.8 Fantasy points dip is notable. Calgary led the league in sacks (45) and forced turnovers (49) so Matt Nichols may be in for another rough afternoon after having been under duress most of the game in Regina. Having had an extra week’s rest may be exactly what their ailing secondary needed.

The Blue Bombers defence will be a pretty tough spend this week given the high salary levels at QB and RB, so players would have to be convinced a handful of sacks and a defensive touchdown are in order to justify the investment. The Bombers were tied for the league lead in sacks (45) and forced turnovers (49) with Calgary, but a matchup on the road versus a rested Stamps lineup makes them a less appealing option than their opponents.

Last week, much of the focus was on the high-profile defences of Winnipeg and Saskatchewan, but it was the Ticats’ less heralded group that won the day with 22 Fantasy points. This week, the focus is rightfully on Calgary and Winnipeg, but the cheap option the REDBLACKS present is certainly worth looking at. In three games versus Hamilton this season, Ottawa has two scores of eight Fantasy points which would make them the best projected value at the position. They were near the bottom of the league in sacks (33), but their 41 forced turnovers were third best in the regular season. Given Hamilton gave up the second most turnovers this year (41), the REDBLACKS have cheap upside.

STACKS

Masoli > Addison, Justin Buren

Given the steep price on Masoli, it’s nearly impossible to stack him with Tasker. Fortunately, two of his other most targeted receivers are much more affordable and make easy single or double stacks for those expecting a Hamilton win.

Harris > Ellingson, Sinopoli

Despite a sluggish start to the season, Ellingson finished strong in 2018 with three games over 14 fantasy points in his last five contests including a two-touchdown effort versus Hamilton in Week 20. Spencer is likely too expensive to stack with Harris, making Ellingson or Sinopoli more affordable stacking options.

SEMI-FINAL PROJECTIONS

QUARTERBACKS

RUNNING BACKS

RECEIVERS