Kevin Sousa/CFL.ca
TORONTO — After enduring their share of ups and downs this season, the Toronto Argonauts are in a good place.
Whatever nautical metaphor you want to use — riding a wave, righted the ship, have navigated to calm waters — can all apply here. Their recent four-game win streak has them docked (use that one too, if you like) atop the East Division. They’re the first team in the league to clinch a home playoff date and they’re steering toward hosting their second consecutive Eastern Final in November, leaving them just a win away from their first Grey Cup appearance since 2017.
When you look at this week’s CFL Simulation, you’ll see what all of that has done for the Argos’ playoff and Grey Cup chances. Simply put, they’re higher than they’ve been at any point this season. If they’re able to go into Calgary and beat a tough Stampeders team — one that the Simulation is also high on — you can expect to see these odds increase in a week’s time.
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Check out this week’s edition of the CFL Simulation and see what your team’s postseason odds are.
*C: Clinched a particular outcome
*E: Eliminated from achieving a particular outcome
ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS |
|
| Team (Projected 2022 Record) | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers (15-3) | C |
| Toronto Argonauts (12-6) | C |
| Calgary Stampeders (12-6) | C |
| BC Lions (11-7) | C |
| Montreal Alouettes (8-10) | 97.46% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats (7-11) | 54.49% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders (6-12) | 39.72% |
| Edmonton Elks (5-13) | 4.20% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS (5-13) | 4.13% |
ODDS TO HOST PLAYOFF GAME |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | C |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 99.92% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 91.91% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 76.03% |
| BC Lions | 24.05% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 7.14% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 0.95% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 0.01% |
| Edmonton Elks | E |
ODDS TO WIN EAST |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | 97.46% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 2.54% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | <0.01% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | E |
ODDS TO WIN WEST |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 99.24% |
| BC Lions | 0.76% |
| Calgary Stampeders | <0.01% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | E |
| Edmonton Elks | E |
ODDS TO APPEAR IN 109TH GREY CUP |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | 90.01% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 65.25% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 30.83% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 7.59% |
| BC Lions | 3.92% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 2.25% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 0.09% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 0.06% |
| Edmonton Elks | <0.01% |
ODDS TO WIN 109TH GREY CUP |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | 60.48% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 22.19% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 13.14% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 2.55% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 0.82% |
| BC Lions | 0.80% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 0.01% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 0.01% |
| Edmonton Elks | <0.01% |
MOST LIKELY 109TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg-Toronto | 58.73% |
| Calgary-Toronto | 27.75% |
| Winnipeg-Montreal | 4.98% |
| BC-Toronto | 3.53% |
| Calgary-Montreal | 2.32% |
The model considers the following:
- Each team’s current win-loss record.
- Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
- Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
- Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
- Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 100,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team). For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).
For instance, if Winnipeg won the Grey Cup in 20,190 of the 100,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 20,190 / 100,000 = 20.19%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
