Dave Chidley/CFL.ca
As Week 19 arrives, Grey Expectations will continue to suit up even though some teams will use the final three weeks to either rest up their starters for a post-season run or choose to give others an early start on the off-season.
We saw news of the former on Wednesday when the Blue Bombers announced pivot Zach Collaros ($10,859) will sit out Saturday’s game against the Lions. That’s a piece of good news for a BC secondary that was lit up for 288 yards and three majors from Collaros in Week 5. He won’t be alone, as Winnipeg will likely give way to its reserves for their final two regular season contests.
This week’s rankings look completely different from the original version as the choice to rest players — along with key injuries to a number of dependable fantasy performers — made for considerable readjusting.
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Quarterbacks
Vernon Adams Jr. will test himself and his offensive teammates against a Bombers’ defence that could be light on starters this week (Christian Bender/CFL.ca)
1. Vernon Adams Jr., BC ($7,715): Adams has tallied 43.2 fantasy points in his last two starts and gets to face a Blue Bombers’ pass defence ranked seventh with 289.1 yards allowed per game. Of the projected Week 19 starters, Adams is the only pivot averaging at least 50 per cent on passes of 20-plus yards in depth (12 of 24). He will take his share of deep shots and there’s always the looming specter of Adams becoming a factor as a runner.
2. Jake Maier, Calgary ($9,573): Only Collaros (24.9 per cent) is more effective at finishing what he starts, as Maier has led the Stamps to majors on 21.1 per cent of his drives. The Tiger-Cats have allowed 25 completions of better than 30 yards and as long as Malik Henry ($9,394) is available, fantasy users know Maier is going to test Hamilton’s secondary early and often.
3. McLeod Bethel-Thompson, Toronto ($9,335): Facing Edmonton’s shaky defence puts Bethel-Thompson in prime position for a fifth 300-yard game this season. There’s every chance he gets back into the TD pass groove he was in last month as the Elks have yielded 24 passing majors while also remaining the most pivot-friendly defence in the league.
4. Dane Evans, Hamilton ($8,164): He torched Calgary in Week 2, throwing for a season-high 425 yards and three majors, despite the Stampeders authoring an epic comeback. The alarms, however, are ablaze since Evans has failed to throw a major in three of his last four games, including his past two.
5. Trevor Harris, Montreal ($8,776): Facing his former Ottawa franchise has brought out the best in Harris this season as two of his three 300-plus yard games have come at the expense of the REDBLACKS. Ottawa is tied with Saskatchewan with a league-high 26 completions of better than 30 yards, so it stands to reason Harris will focus on doing what he’s often done in 2022: throw in the direction of Eugene Lewis ($10,759).
6. Taylor Cornelius, Edmonton ($10,596): High salary, the fact the Elks haven’t won at Commonwealth since Lizzo’s appropriated-named “Truth Hurts” was atop the Billboard charts and zero passing majors the past two games is why we’re avoiding Cornelius this week.
And Then There’s:
Dru Brown, Winnipeg ($7,000): Before we dismiss the prospects of Brown’s fantasy potential, let’s wait and see what he’s working with on Saturday night. Friday’s depth chart reveal will be fun.
Nick Arbuckle, Ottawa ($8,505)
Caleb Evans, Ottawa ($5,606)
Dominique Davis, Montreal ($4,476)
Dakota Prukop, Winnipeg ($6,179)
Dru Brown, Winnipeg ($7,000)
Chad Kelly, Toronto ($5,000)
Running Backs
Brady Oliveira is nearing the 1,000-yard rushing mark and should have a shot at it this week, unless the Bombers opt to rest him. Keep an eye on his status ahead of Saturday (Jason Halstead/CFL.ca)
1. Ka’Deem Carey, Calgary ($8,889): Carey is just 51 yards from his first 1,000-yard season. Bank on it happening Saturday, as Carey has rushed for at least 61 yards in each of his last 10 games. He’s only caught two passes in his past two games, yet Carey is always a threat to factor in the Calgary passing game.
2. James Butler, BC ($8,703): His late-season resurgence continued with 114 yards from scrimmage in last week’s loss to the Argos. Butler has 82 rushing yards or better in three of his last four games and has seen an increased role as a receiver, having caught 14 passes in the same span.
3. A.J. Ouellette, Toronto ($5,547): Any back that faces the Edmonton run defence is going to get extra love. Ouellette has had at least 12 touches from scrimmage in each of his last five games and while he’s unlikely to rip off a big gain (just one run of more than 20 yards), he should be the first option near the goal line versus an Elks defence that has given up 27 rushing majors this season.
4. Brady Oliveira, Winnipeg ($7,247): Like Carey, Oliveira is in range of 1,000 yards (81 yards out). The Bombers have utilized Oliveira frequently the past two games, giving him 31 touches overall and he does come off his first multiple-major game of the season. Be ready to adjust projections if he’s among those not suiting up.
5. Wes Hills, Hamilton ($5,550): A good value play this week despite the ranking, Hills has brought life to the Tiger-Cats’ run game. The Stamps allow 5.1 yards per carry, well above Hamilton’s overall 4.7 average, and if the Ticats dictate the pace and give him a workload similar to last week, Hills could wreck this ranking.
6. Kevin Brown, Edmonton ($5,602): Brown appears set to return after a lower-body injury sidelined him in the third quarter of last week’s loss to the Blue Bombers. He was held to just 25 yards on five carries, a season-low for the rookie who must now take on a rugged Toronto run defence that has allowed just nine rushing majors. Receiver Christian Saulsberry ($2,500) could end up in the backfield if the Elks decide to give Brown an early start toward 2023.
And Then There’s…
William Stanback, Montreal ($6,508): Not yet…
Peyton Logan, Calgary ($4,928)
Johnny Augustine, Winnipeg ($3,598): Be ready to move him up if Oliveira sits out.
William Powell, Ottawa ($5,332)
Greg McCrae, Winnipeg ($3,500)
Jackson Bennett, Ottawa ($2,500): Sneaky value if he’s atop the depth chart.
Walter Fletcher, Montreal ($5,007)
Christian Saulsberry, Edmonton ($2,500)
Jeshrun Antwi, Montreal ($3,022)
Ante Litre, Edmonton ($2,500)
Sean Thomas-Erlington, Hamilton ($2,688)
Receivers
Having Steven Dunbar Jr. back in the lineup might take some defensive pressure off of Tim White this week, as the Ticats chase a much-needed win in Calgary (Kevin Sousa/CFL.ca)
1. Eugene Lewis, Montreal ($10,759): Lewis is the Alouettes’ passing game, having scored majors in six straight games. He has scored in each of the previous three games against the REDBLACKS and still provides 16-18 fantasy points per game despite the extensive coverage he faces. Smile gladly as you add him to the lineup.
2. Tim White, Hamilton ($10,706): The league’s leader in receptions (78) had a rough Week 18, catching just three of 10 targets, but the return of Steven Dunbar Jr. ($7,082) will take considerable pressure off a receiver that had caught at least six passes in five straight games before last week. Only Calgary’s Malik Henry ($9,394) has more yards after the catch than White’s 395.
3. Nic Demski, Winnipeg ($10,502): There’s not a pass catcher in North America playing at the level Demski is right now. After all, he’s scored in six straight games, has delivered fantasy users 18.9 FP in five of those six along with at least six receptions in seven of his past nine. He’s not atop the rankings because of the prospects of him getting a rest.
4. Dominique Rhymes, BC ($8,655): He’s back on track now that he and Vernon Adams Jr. have established a rapport. Rhymes has caught 10 passes for 179 yards the past two weeks while also reestablishing himself as one of the league’s deep threats. He scorched the Blue Bombers with 31.6 fantasy points in the Week 5 meeting and no one should bet against him coming close to repeating that performance.
5. Dalton Schoen, Winnipeg ($9,383): At this point, there’s no reason why Schoen shouldn’t be a Most Outstanding Player finalist. We’re witnessing one of the greatest rookie seasons in league history, and he’s still not finished. Take a look at this week’s stats and gaze at the bold numbers to the right of his name. Rookies usually don’t lead the league in efficiency, but — as we have seen all year — Schoen is a rookie in name only.
6. Justin Hardy, Ottawa ($3,895): The hike in salary isn’t unnoticed. Hardy has caught 16 passes in the past two games and has averaged better than 15 fantasy points in the past three games he has played. His value skyrockets now that Jaelon Acklin ($7,329) is unavailable for Friday’s game against the Alouettes.
7. Reggie Begelton, Calgary ($8,160): With Malik Henry ($9,394) out this week, look for Begelton to get a hefty volume of targets. His numbers have been solid this season, but we still have yet to get the one game where Begleton makes running through defences look like a video game. There’s still time, and perhaps Friday finally gives us that moment.
8. Keon Hatcher, BC ($6,047): He’s made the most of his limited touches, having scored in consecutive games despite having just six receptions. In what should be a high-scoring affair against Winnipeg, Hatcher could thrive if Lucky Whitehead ($7,751) is sidelined for a second straight game.
9. Kurleigh Gittens Jr., Toronto ($8,601): Gittens isn’t going to stretch a defence (10.2 average yards per route) yet continues to be the most consistent receiver among the Argonauts’ receiving corps. Similar to Acklin, Gittens’ yardage numbers have been a struggle but he has caught at least four passes in seven of his past eight. He should see an uptick in numbers as the Argos gear up for the postseason.
10. Dillon Mitchell, Edmonton ($6,558): Mr. Deep Ball has caught a pass of 45 or more yards in six straight games. Making it seven will be a stiff challenge as the Argonauts are one of the league’s toughest pass defences when it comes to denying big plays. Still, Mitchell will have value as he’s become the clear WR1 for the Elks.
11. Steven Dunbar Jr., Hamilton ($7,082): Dunbar missed last week with a personal matter and should be back in the lineup, where his presence will greatly benefit a Ticats’ passing game that was too Tim White-heavy without him.
12. Alexander Hollins, BC ($2,500): Hollins scored in his CFL debut in Week 18 and will be in line for more targets as he replaces Whitehead in the lineup for a second straight game.
And Then There’s…
Darvin Adams, Ottawa ($5,482)
Markeith Ambles, Toronto ($6,365)
Tyson Philpot, Montreal ($3,186): Here’s his chance to show why the Als drafted him in the first round now that Reggie White Jr. ($5,411) is out for the season.
Rasheed Bailey, Winnipeg ($5,854)
Derel Walker, Edmonton ($5,102)
Anthony Johnson, Hamilton ($2,500)
Luther Hakunavanhu, Calgary ($3,465): Sleeper potential abounds.
Christian Saulsberry, Edmonton ($2,500): Remember: there’s value here if he’s getting carries in place of Kevin Brown.
Hergy Mayala, Montreal ($2,786)
Jalen Philpot, Calgary ($3,147): The Philpot brothers might have a big weekend ahead of them.
Jake Wieneke, Montreal ($4,637)
Chandler Worthy, Montreal ($3,912)
Brandon Banks, Toronto ($5,559)
Brendan O’Leary-Orange, Winnipeg ($2,500)
Janarion Grant, Winnipeg ($3,562)
Cam Phillips, Toronto ($4,150)
Defences
1. Toronto ($4,159)
2. Ottawa ($3,553)
3. Calgary ($4,772)
4. Winnipeg ($3,200)
5. Montreal ($3,300)
6. BC ($3,340)
7. Hamilton ($3,200)
8. Edmonton ($3,200)
Stacktastic Voyage
Winnipeg: Dru Brown ($7,000), Johnny Augustine ($3;598), Brendan O’Leary-Orange ($2,500). A fun way to spend a mere $13,098, provided Oliveira is joining Collaros in street clothes on Saturday night.
Calgary: Reggie Begelton ($8,160), Luther Hakunavanhu ($3,465), Jake Maier (9,573). Begelton is the featured attraction, but the other two are flying under the radar this week. Run with this $21,198 stack.
BC: Dominique Rhymes ($8,655), Vernon Adams Jr. ($7,715), Keon Hatcher ($6,047). Adams’ value makes it possible to add the Lions’ top two receivers into this stack, a $22,417 play that could be huge if this game against the Bombers lives up to the high-scoring hype.
Hamilton: Dane Evans ($8,164), Wes Hills ($5,500), Steven Dunbar Jr. ($7,082). Adding Tim White would have been too much to bear. However, this is not a bad way to spend $20,746.
Montreal: Eugene Lewis ($10,759), Trevor Harris ($8,776), Tyson Philpot ($3,186). The appeal of this stack increases with Reggie White Jr. out, meaning more targets for Philpot. A bit of a reach here, but Lewis alone makes the $22,720 risk worthy.
Toronto: McLeod Bethel-Thompson ($9,335), A.J. Ouellette ($5,547), Kurleigh Gittens Jr. ($8,601). A streaky pivot and a running back facing a poor run defence is an interesting foundation to this steep $23,483 stack.
